345
FXUS61 KBUF 051745
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
145 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary will remain draped across the region tonight
with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. A weak cold
front will cross the region early Saturday, resulting in afternoon
temperatures a degree or two cooler, yet still moderately humid.
High pressure crossing the region later Saturday and through the
remainder of the weekend will promote fair weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Summer`s humidity will linger across the region today as a weak
warm frontal boundary reside across the region. A few showers
this morning across the Finger Lakes region, with a few
thunderstorms possible this afternoon as instability builds.

Coverage area of convection will increase this evening as a
stronger shortwave trough emerges from the Central Great Lakes.
Heights falls ahead of this shortwave, coupled with the right
entrance region of a 300 hPa Jet will give broad scale lift,
that will likely bring showers and thunderstorms this evening to
WNY, with activity drifting to eastern zones ahead of a late
night arriving cold front.

Winds in the lowest few KM have decreased in recent model runs, but
still moderately fast flow in the mid levels will continue 0-6 km
bulk shear values in the 45 to 50 knot range. Partly sunny skies
this afternoon will help MUCAPE to build to several hundred to as
much as 1000 J/KG that should give enough buoyancy for storms to
grow upon this evening. Overnight timing is not great, but given the
stronger shear a few storms could bring gusty winds as highlighted
by SPC`s Marginal Risk for our region. Confidence is still low for
severe storms, though the wind field aloft is great, the late
evening timing and potential marginal instability may just keep
storms as garden variety. Additionally, moisture advection tonight
could prime the atmosphere for some heavier downpours. PWATs are not
as high as recent days, generally in the 1.5 to 1.75 inch range.

Highs temperatures today ranging through the 80s and lows tonight
in the mid 60s to around 70F. The moist boundary layer and
light wind flow could produce a little fog across the Southern
Tier.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A shortwave and weak surface low will track into southern
Quebec on Saturday, with an associated cold front pushing east
of our area during the day. Saturday will be breezy cooler in
the wake of this cold frontal passage. Outside of a few
lingering chances for some showers across the eastern Lake
Ontario and western Finger Lakes regions, the remainder of the
region should be rain-free.

High pressure centered over the Ohio Valley Saturday night will make
its way into New England Sunday and Sunday night. This will bring
dry weather featuring comfortable humidity levels and plenty of
sunshine.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure across New England will set up a southerly return flow
which will in warm and moist air into the region supporting summer-
like temperatures. Highs Monday will range in the 80s.

The next mid-level trough will begin to slide across the Great Lakes
Monday night through Wednesday. This will bring a chance of showers
and thunderstorms for Tuesday and Wednesday, with the greatest
chances Tuesday afternoon and evening. Low confidence in
temperatures Tuesday, with model differences in precipitation timing
and 850mb temps, but in general it`s likely to be another hot day.
After that, the trough will bring cooler weather for the rest of the
work week. High pressure will then build across the area Thursday
bringing a return to dry weather.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A weak warm frontal boundary remains draped across the region. As
instability builds this afternoon, a few showers and storms
will become possible, with coverage area increasing this evening
as yet another convective shortwave passes through the region.

Additional showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will remain through
the overnight, with a cold front entering WNY late. While any storm
could bring brief reductions in a downpour, there is a decent flow
aloft that could translate to the surface in any stronger storm,
with localized stronger wind gusts.

In this moisture rich boundary layer patches of fog will remain
possible tonight, especially for the Southern Tier and east of Lake
Ontario.

Outlook...

Saturday...Mainly VFR with decreasing chances for showers.
Sunday and Monday...VFR.
Tuesday...Restrictions possible with showers and thunderstorms
likely.
Wednesday...Restrictions possible with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will remain light on the lower Great Lakes through tonight
with a weak pressure gradient in place. A cold front will cross the
region Saturday, with freshening southwest winds. Sustained winds
wind could near 20 knots for a time Saturday afternoon which may
necessitate some small craft headlines, mainly on the eastern end of
Lake Erie.

High pressure will build over the lower Great Lakes Sunday and into
the start of next week. This will bring a period quiet conditions
through mid week with a weak pressure gradient favoring light winds
and limited waves. The light flow will allow for some local lake
breezes to form each day.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Thomas/TMA
NEAR TERM...Thomas/TMA
SHORT TERM...Apffel/EAJ
LONG TERM...Apffel/EAJ
AVIATION...Thomas/TMA
MARINE...TMA