739
FXUS61 KBUF 080823
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
423 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure over our region to start the day will continue
quiescent conditions with summer`s warmth through tonight, with just
an isolated lake breeze shower or thunderstorm Tuesday. A few
showers along a cold front Tuesday night, with this front stalling
over our region and serving as a pathway for tropical rainfall from
Beryl Wednesday through early Thursday morning. Copious amounts of
rain will likely total multiple inches through Thursday, with
hydrologic concerns increasing.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure is over our region to start the day, with light winds
at the surface. A few patches of cirrus aloft, with some well inland
Southern Tier valley fog, otherwise it will be a sunny start to the
day.

Should be dry today, though moisture pooling across the Finger Lakes
may yield a spot afternoon shower. Warming aloft will result in
surface temperatures well into the 80s today, around 5 degrees
warmer than Sunday.

Tonight this surface high will slip to the east, with a light
southern flow across the region. There may again be some valley fog
in the Southern Tier.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
...Significant Rains from the Remnants of Beryl Possible Wednesday...

On Tuesday, the region will be between a mid-level ridge across the
mid-Atlantic states and a trough axis near Missouri. For the most
part, Tuesday will be rain-free although some widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms can`t be ruled out Tuesday afternoon and
night. Despite some mid and high level clouds, it`ll be another hot
day with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Apparent temperatures
will approach the mid 90s in the lower Genesee River valley and
western Finger Lakes regions.

There`s a risk for heavy rainfall from the remnants of Beryl
Wednesday and Wednesday night. The digging trough will pick up
moisture from the remnants of Tropical System Beryl and transport
them into our area. Precipitable water values surging to 2-2.5" will
support the potential for heavy rainfall and a risk for flooding.
There will be a diffluent flow aloft combined with a warm front at
the surface which can serve as a focus for training storms and heavy
rainfall. There are still differences in model guidance, but a
consensus has the slug of moisture moving through Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night. On Wednesday, the area of greatest
concern is Western NY where the frontal boundary will be located.
During the day Wednesday, there`s a chance of diurnal instability
will result in thunderstorms with locally higher rainfall amounts.

By Wednesday evening, the slug of tropical moisture is likely to
move across Western NY before exiting across the North Country late
Wednesday night. There remains too much uncertainty to issue a Flood
Watch yet, but WPC has the entire forecast area in a slight risk for
excessive rainfall. In general, expecting over an inch of rain at
most locations, with localized amounts of 3 inches possible. Areas
most vulnerable to flash flooding are typically areas with steep
terrain and urban areas.

Otherwise, temperatures on Wednesday will depend on the position of
the front, but could see it being much cooler (in the 70s) for much
of Western NY due to breezy northeast winds as the surface low moves
into Ohio. The remnant surface low will track into southern Ontario
province Thursday. There will be some lingering showers and
thunderstorms, with the best chances across eastern sections of the
forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The axis of tropical moisture will be east of the forecast area by
Thursday night. Drier air will continue to move into the region,
however the mid-level wave will be overhead and diurnally driven
showers and thunderstorms will be possible Friday. A mid-level ridge
will move across the region Friday night through Sunday and mostly
dry conditions are expected across the region. There is a low chance
of showers in the afternoon through early evening Saturday and
Sunday, mainly inland from the lakes and near lake breeze
boundaries. Otherwise, temperatures will be above normal during the
period with highs mainly in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
For the 06Z TAFS, VFR flight conditions are found...and the main
concern through the TAF cycle will be the formation of fog. Patches
of fog, especially near the valleys will be likely in the inland
Southern Tier, however at the KJHW terminal a still large dewpoint
depression, plus the increase of cirrus aloft may keep fog from
forming. Will just mention VCFG here, with VFR or MVFR flight
conditions likely to prevail.

Otherwise mainly dry through the day today. There will be a little
moisture pooling across the Finger Lakes, enough to perhaps form a
spot shower. Continued dry tonight with a light southerly flow, with
again valley fog formation in the Southern Tier.

Outlook...

Tuesday..Mainly VFR. A low chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Wednesday...MVFR/IFR with tropical rains and chance thunderstorms.
Thursday...MVFR/IFR with high chances of showers and thunderstorms.
Friday...Mainly VFR with a low chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure is across our region this early morning, producing
light winds across the Lower Great Lakes. WIthin the light flow
local lake breeze circulations will again form through the afternoon
hours. This surface high will drift eastward today, with a light
southerly flow across the Lakes tonight, becoming southwesterly on
Tuesday. This may bring waves one to two feet on Lake Erie.

More unsettled conditions - featuring widespread rain and some
embedded thunderstorms - are then expected to develop on Wednesday
as an area of low pressure (the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Beryl)
track northeastward across the Ohio Valley.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Thomas
NEAR TERM...Thomas
SHORT TERM...Apffel/PP
LONG TERM...Apffel/HSK
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Thomas