997
FXUS61 KBUF 081745
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
145 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over our region will continue quiescent conditions
with summer`s warmth through tonight with just an isolated lake
breeze shower or thunderstorm Tuesday. A few showers along a cold
front Tuesday night, with this front stalling over our region and
serving as a pathway for tropical rainfall from Beryl Wednesday
through early Thursday morning. Copious amounts of rain will likely
total multiple inches through Thursday, with hydrologic concerns
increasing.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
High pressure over our region today will gradually drift east
across New England tonight. This will maintain fair dry weather
with wall to wall sunshine this afternoon...then only a slow
increase in mid and high level clouds as we work our way through
tonight.

It will be quite warm this afternoon with the mercury topping out
between 85 to 90...but at least humidity will be at tolerable
levels. The upcoming night will be warmer than recent nights with
mins forecast to range from the mid 60s in the cooler parts of the
Srn Tier and North country to the upper 60s/nr 70 elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
...Significant Rains from the Remnants of Beryl Possible Wednesday...

On Tuesday, the region will be between a mid-level ridge across the
mid-Atlantic states and a trough axis near Missouri. For the most
part, Tuesday will be rain-free although some widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms can`t be ruled out Tuesday afternoon and
night. Despite some mid and high level clouds, it`ll be another hot
day with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Apparent temperatures
will approach the mid 90s in the lower Genesee River valley and
western Finger Lakes regions.

There`s a risk for heavy rainfall from the remnants of Beryl
Wednesday and Wednesday night. The digging trough will pick up
moisture from the remnants of Tropical System Beryl and transport
them into our area. Precipitable water values surging to 2-2.5" will
support the potential for heavy rainfall and a risk for flooding.
There will be a diffluent flow aloft combined with a warm front at
the surface which can serve as a focus for training storms and heavy
rainfall. There are still differences in model guidance, but a
consensus has the slug of moisture moving through Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night. On Wednesday, the area of greatest
concern is Western NY where the frontal boundary will be located.
During the day Wednesday, there`s a chance of diurnal instability
will result in thunderstorms with locally higher rainfall
amounts. Wind profiles south of the boundary (Western Southern
Tier) show enough shear to support strong thunderstorms with
gusty winds. SPC introduced a marginal risk for severe weather
for Wednesday. This risk depends on the position of the frontal
boundary.

By Wednesday evening, the slug of tropical moisture is likely to
move across Western NY before exiting across the North Country late
Wednesday night. There remains too much uncertainty to issue a Flood
Watch yet, but WPC has the entire forecast area in a slight risk for
excessive rainfall. In general, expecting over an inch of rain at
most locations, with localized amounts of 3 inches possible. Areas
most vulnerable to flash flooding are typically areas with steep
terrain and urban areas.

Otherwise, temperatures on Wednesday will depend on the position of
the front, but could see it being much cooler (in the 70s) for much
of Western NY due to breezy northeast winds as the surface low moves
into Ohio. The remnant surface low will track into southern Ontario
province Thursday. There will be some lingering showers and
thunderstorms, with the best chances across eastern sections of the
forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The axis of tropical moisture will be east of the forecast area by
Thursday night. Drier air will continue to move into the region,
however the mid-level wave will be overhead and diurnally driven
showers and thunderstorms will be possible Friday. A mid-level ridge
will move across the region Friday night through Sunday and mostly
dry conditions are expected across the region. There is a low chance
of showers in the afternoon through early evening Saturday and
Sunday, mainly inland from the lakes and near lake breeze
boundaries. Otherwise, temperatures will be above normal during the
period with highs mainly in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Widespread fair/dry/VFR conditions will continue through early
Tuesday afternoon...along with generally light winds. Scattered
diurnal cumulus inland from the lakes this afternoon will fade with
the loss of heating this evening...then high and mid clouds will be
on a gradual increase from west to east overnight and Tuesday as mid
and upper level moisture begins streaming across our area well out
ahead of the remnants of Beryl. A few widely scattered diurnally-
driven showers and storms will then become possible inland from the
lakes Tuesday afternoon.

Outlook...

Wednesday...MVFR/IFR with tropical rains and a chance
of thunderstorms.
Thursday...MVFR/VFR with a chance of showers and a few isolated
thunderstorms...with the showers possibly a bit more numerous east
of Lake Ontario.
Friday...Mainly VFR with a low chance of showers and thunderstorms
inland from the lakes.
Saturday...Mainly VFR with a low chance of showers and thunderstorms
well inland from the lakes.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure is across our region this morning, producing light
winds across the Lower Great Lakes. WIthin the light flow local lake
breeze circulations will again form through the afternoon hours.
This surface high will drift eastward today, with a light southerly
flow across the Lakes tonight, becoming southwesterly on Tuesday.
This may bring waves one to two feet on Lake Erie.

More unsettled conditions - featuring widespread rain and some
embedded thunderstorms - are then expected to develop on Wednesday
as an area of low pressure (the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Beryl)
track northeastward across the Ohio Valley.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Thomas
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...Apffel/PP
LONG TERM...Apffel/HSK
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...Thomas