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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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996 FXUS64 KBRO 111715 AAC AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1215 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 354 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 A slightly more active weather pattern attempts to get going during this portion of the total forecast. 500 mb high pressure, centered over southern New Mexico and northern Texas, will generally remain the dominant feature for the BRO CWFA. However, weak inverted mid-level troughiness will become established and briefly linger along the northeast coast of Mexico. Combined with daytime heating and precipitable water values that will near 2 inches, the result will be mainly isolated showers and thunderstorms, with the greatest chance of convection on Monday and along and east of the Interstate 69C corridor. Temperature-wise, above normal values are anticipated. A survey of calculated heat index values indicates that a HEAT ADVISORY will not be needed today or tomorrow. However, will cover the elevated heat indices with a SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT today, with another quite possibly needing to be issued on Monday. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 354 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 The persistent mid-level ridge over Texas will remain in control through much of the period. An inverted 500mb trough is expected to continue to move westward around the southern periphery of the ridge Monday night into Tuesday. Ample moisture (PWATs around 2 inches) combined with daytime heating may lead to a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across the area, mainly near the coast, Tuesday. Otherwise, hot and humid days and warm nights with rain-free conditions are expected through the period. Temperatures remain near normal with triple digit heat across the mid to upper valley and ranchlands and muggy mornings into the upper 70s and low 80s. As moisture increases, expect Heat Indices to once again reach near Heat Advisory criteria each afternoon. Patchy fog will also be possible each morning where winds diminish. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 VFR conditions are expected to generally prevail through the TAF period with light northeasterly winds turning more southeasterly and a chance of thunderstorms increasing late Monday morning, mainly near BRO. && .MARINE... Issued at 354 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 (Today through Monday): Buoy 42020 reported east winds around 10 knots gusting to around 12 knots with seas slightly under 1.5 feet with a period of 4 seconds at 2:50 CDT/7:50 UTC. A weak pressure gradient will exist over the western Gulf of Mexico throughout the period, producing light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas along the Lower Texas Coast. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution and Small Craft Advisory are not likely to be needed. Monday night through Saturday...High pressure across the Gulf will continue to support favorable marine conditions with generally weak to moderate onshore flow and low seas. The chance of streamer showers or isolated thunderstorms continues, mainly during late night or early morning hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 79 95 81 95 / 10 40 10 20 HARLINGEN 76 95 78 96 / 0 30 0 20 MCALLEN 80 100 81 100 / 0 20 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 78 99 79 100 / 0 10 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 90 83 90 / 10 10 0 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 93 79 93 / 0 20 0 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ AVIATION...56-Hallman