472
FXUS64 KBRO 030943
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
443 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Key Message:

* Start of the Fourth of July window is seasonably hot with ideal
  beach conditions.

In a phrase? Set it and forget it. Slightly above normal temperatures
and rain-free conditions across the Rio Grande Valley/Deep South
Texas ranchlands will continue through Thursday as east-west
elongated 500 mb ridge remains parked across the entire state.
Atmospheric temperatures remain on the high side, but recent
maximum temperatures have been sitting just below average across
the Valley, perhaps owing to continued evapotranspiration due to
rains at the end of June. That said, with full sunshine expect
highs to nudge up a degree or two each day, and would not surprise
to see triple-digit temperatures return to the mid/upper Valley
for the Fourth of July.

Otherwise, expect a similar afternoon wind pickup this afternoon and
again on the Fourth from the southeast at 15-20 mph with higher
gusts, reaching the upper Valley/Rio Grande Plains by early to mid
evening before laying down a bit overnight. Expect 8 to 11 mph winds
through the night which will keep lows from falling much below
80...but this has been a story since May, and is now more in line
with climatology this time of year.

As for the "feels like" temperatures...a smidge of drier surface air
reached the area on Tuesday and helped keep these values below the
111 criteria for most areas.  Current forecast suggests the
same...most areas below 110 by mid afternoon so will hold off on a
special weather statement as these values are just a few degrees
above climatology for this time of year.

Bottom line? The usual heat safety precautions apply today through
the Fourth...drink plenty of water before, during, and after
activities and find shady or cooler spots as available while
celebrating.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

This portion of the total forecast is highly dependent on tropical
system Beryl, currently a Category 4 hurricane south of Haiti and
marching steadily towards an impact with Jamaica today. As the
long term forecast begins, Beryl is forecast to be just east of
the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula as a hurricane, with
Beryl expected to be just emerging offshore the northwest portion
of the peninsula Friday evening as a tropical storm. The official
Beryl track courtesy of the National Hurricane Center then moves
Beryl west-northwest to northwest as a tropical storm over the
southern Gulf of Mexico during the weekend, with a projected
landfall Sunday evening in the vicinity of Carboneras (about 80
miles south of Brownsville) in northeast Tamaulipas.

Given the above-mentioned timing and track, it is reasonable to
assume that conditions, initially tranquil due to mid-level high
pressure, will deteriorate during the weekend, subsequently
becoming dangerous later Sunday and into early Monday. The
forecast timing and track also suggest that conditions may improve
later Monday and especially on Tuesday as Beryl moves deeper into
Texas or northern Mexico.

Residents of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley are urged
to monitor the progress of Beryl through the end of the week and
into the weekend. Naturally, with any tropical system possibly
making landfall about 80 miles south of Brownsville, heavy rain
with possible flooding, strong winds with damage and power outages,
isolated tornadoes, and high surf with severe beach erosion (at
the local beaches) is a distinct possibility. To what extent
these things occur will be determined by the size and strength of
Beryl once she makes her final landfall.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

About the only difference between the next 24 hours and the last
24 hours is an increase in southeasterly flow...courtesy of a
slightly stronger surface trough across the lee of the Sierra
Madre than in recent days. Otherwise...skies should remain fair
with mainly patchy, mostly VFR (few-scattered) cumulus and few-
scattered cirrus above it. Afternoon winds will get the usual
early to mid-afternoon sea breeze push, with strongest speeds
reaching McAllen just before sunset, which is typical in this
pattern. Winds drop back below 10 knots between 10 PM and 1 AM
Thursday.

So...other than the afternoon thermals...and decent period for
takeoffs and landings.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

High pressure stretching across the Gulf will keep a cap on
southeast wind flow over the Gulf, with the usual afternoon pickup
over Laguna Madre each day that will fall just below caution
levels (15-20 knots and gust). Seas are sitting at 2-3 feet today
in the Gulf and should remain there through Thursday.

Other than the heat...ideal boating/fishing conditions with just
enough breeze to wick away the sweat, even over the normally cooler
Gulf waters.

(Thursday Night through Tuesday)
This portion of the total marine forecast is highly dependent on
tropical system Beryl, currently a Category 4 hurricane south of
Haiti and marching steadily towards an impact with Jamaica today.
As the long term forecast begins, Beryl is forecast to be just
east of the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula as a hurricane,
with Beryl expected to be just emerging offshore the northwest
portion of the peninsula Friday evening as a tropical storm. The
official Beryl track courtesy of the National Hurricane Center
then moves Beryl west-northwest to northwest as a tropical storm
over the southern Gulf of Mexico during the weekend, with a
projected landfall Sunday evening in the vicinity of Carboneras
(about 80 miles south of Brownsville) in northeast Tamaulipas.

Given the above-mentioned timing and track, it is reasonable to
assume that marine conditions, initially tranquil due to surface
high pressure, will deteriorate during the weekend, subsequently
becoming dangerous Sunday and into early Monday. The forecast
timing and track also suggest that marine conditions may improve
later Monday and especially on Tuesday as Beryl moves deeper into
Texas or northern Mexico.

Mariners along the Lower Texas Coast are urged to monitor the
progress of Beryl through the end of the week and into the
weekend. Naturally, with any tropical system possibly making
landfall about 80 miles south of Brownsville, strong winds and high
seas, requiring vessels to remain in port, is a distinct
possibility. To what extent these things occur will be determined
by the size and strength of Beryl once she makes her final
landfall.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             94  81  95  81 /   0   0  10   0
HARLINGEN               96  78  97  77 /   0  10  10   0
MCALLEN                 98  80  99  80 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         98  78  99  78 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      89  83  89  83 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     93  80  94  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Goldsmith-52
LONG TERM/UPPER AIR...Tomaselli-66