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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA
Issued by NWS Boston, MA
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486 FXUS61 KBOX 120256 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1056 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Mild days, cool nights and comfortable humidity by August standards, will be the weather theme for much of the week ahead. Mainly dry weather too, with just a few showers possible Monday and again Thursday. A frontal system moving in from the Great Lakes could bring our next chance for more widespread showers next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... 11pm Update: A few showers continue to march from west to east, did increase POPs in the near term to reflect the latest radar trends. Can see an outflow boundary from these showers, which has put out some gusty winds of around 30 MPH. Expect these showers will remain with us through the next two to three hours. But overall no impacts. 720 PM Update: * Dry, cool/comfortable tonight. This evening and overnight... A beautiful evening in progress, with clearing skies. Temps mainly in the mid 70s at this hour, but very comfortable with dew pts in the 50s. Winds mainly SW 10-15 mph. High amplitude closed low over southern Ontario and Quebec, with a vigorous short wave rotating through the eastern Great Lakes, which is kicking off thunderstorms across Lake Ontario into western NY. This short wave will traverse across northern NY/VT/NH/ME tonight. Therefore, the bulk of any convection will track north of MA/CT/RI. However, can`t rule out a brief shower across northwest MA this evening. Otherwise, dry and very pleasant weather prevails. Given dry airmass, diminishing winds and mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions tonight, radiational cooling will support lows in the 50s overnight outside the urban areas and coastline, where lows there will range between 60-65. Followed the cooler MOS guidance given the above setup. Very comfortable by early to mid August standards. Not expecting much fog if any overnight, as dew pts are lower than the avg min temps for this time of year. Hence, its a dry airmass. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Updated: 3:50 PM * Mild days and cool nights continue * Scattered afternoon showers Monday Monday... Lead short wave over ME Monday morning, departs northeast into the maritimes, leaving behind a reinforcing shot of cool, dry air across SNE. This promotes dry weather Monday morning along with sunshine. Cool morning lows in the 50s and 60s quickly jump into the 70s by 11 am. Trailing short wave ejects eastward from the NY state and this will yield building diurnal clouds. Not much moisture in advance of this feature, with surface dew pts in the 50s. This will limit SB instability, but 500 mb temps cooling to -16C will provide steep mid level lapse rates. Although, the lack of mid level moisture will preclude the full magnitude of this instability from being realized. Thus, just expecting scattered low top showers (low EQL) with a low probability (~10%) of an isolated thunderstorm. Given the cold air aloft, worst case scenario would be an isolated gusty thunderstorm with small hail. However, most of the convection will just be low top showers. Otherwise, many hours of dry weather with any shower/thunderstorm very brief in duration. Cool air aloft will yield slightly lower highs than today, with max temps Monday in the upper 70s and lower 80s, mid 70s high terrain. WSW winds 10-15 mph. Monday night... Another reinforcing shot of cool/dry air behind departing short wave. Any lingering shower activity dissipates around or shortly after sunset. Thus, dry weather remainder of the night. NW winds behind departing short wave provides weak CAA, yielding another night with lows in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 350 PM update... Key Points * Seasonable and mainly dry conditions for much of the work week * Low chance for an isolated shower/T-storm Thursday afternoon. * Tropics are beginning to heat up and will be watched closely over the coming days and weeks. High pressure over the Great Plains continues to extend east into southern New England bringing dry and pleasant weather for much of the week. Northerly flow will keep temperatures and dewpoints in check this week staying in the low 80s for highs and low 60s for lows. Dewpoints also stay in the upper 50s to low 60s much of the week. Only chance for showers this week looks to be Thursday into Thursday night as a closed upper level low retrogrades back to the southwest into New England. SBCAPE values look rather meager at this point with 300-500 J/kg, limiting the severe threat. Bufkit profiles do however show show tall and skinny CAPE profiles which could lead to some heavy downpours with some showers or thunderstorms. Heading into next weekend and early next week, considerable uncertainty exists with how the forecast evolves. Guidance brings a shortwave trough out of Great Lakes, but large differences in timing and amplitude exists among the different guidance sources. Either way, next weekend looks like the best potential for a widespread wetting rain. We continue to monitor developments of tropical systems in the Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center maintains an area of high likelihood for tropical cyclone development near the Lesser Antilles. For the latest on this potential, refer to tropical weather outlooks from the NHC. At the very least, long-period swells propagating well ahead of any tropical cyclone that may develop, following great circle tracks, would increase the risk for rip currents later next weekend or early in the following workweek. Otherwise, it is still too early at this point to provide specifics on where this potential tropical cyclone will track with much degree of confidence, but is something we`ll be monitoring. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Forecast Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 00z update... This evening & overnight...high confidence. VFR tonight. Any remaining gusts should diminish after sunset. Monday...High Confidence. VFR cloud bases. Dry in the morning, then scattered brief afternoon showers, therefore VCSH in most terminals, except Cape Cod and the Islands. Very low prob (5-10%) of isolated thunder, but too low to include in the TAF. WSW winds 10-15 kt. Monday night...high confidence. VFR, dry weather and WNW winds 5-15 kt. KBOS TAF...High confidence. SW winds 10-15 kt thru the period.Dry thru Monday morning, then VCSH for the afternoon, especially 18z-22z. KBDL TAF...High confidence. Mainly SW winds 5-15 kt and dry weather through Monday morning. Then VCSH Mon afternoon, mainly 18z-22z. Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/... Tuesday through Wednesday Night: VFR. Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, isolated TSRA. Thursday Night through Friday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Updated: 3:45 PM update... Through Monday night...High Confidence. Tranquil boating weather with persistent SW winds 5-15 kt through Monday, then shifting to WNW Monday night. Dry weather with the exception of a few brief showers, an isolated thunderstorm Monday afternoon, dissipating with sunset. Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/... Winds less than 25 kt. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KP/Nocera NEAR TERM...Dooley/KP/Nocera SHORT TERM...Nocera LONG TERM...KP AVIATION...KP/Nocera MARINE...KP/Nocera