513
FXUS65 KBOI 042007
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
207 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday night...Dry and getting
hot. The Excessive Heat Watch will be maintained this afternoon
with no changes. The models are consistent with their depiction
of an extreme heat event beginning Saturday and extending deep
into next week. Temps Friday will be around 5 degrees above
normal, but will be closer to 10 above normal Saturday. There`s
roughly a 60% chance of getting to 100 in Ontario Saturday, and
around a 30% chance in Caldwell/Nampa/Meridian/Boise/Mountain
Home.

Breezy conditions will develop mainly south and east of
Mountain Home tomorrow afternoon/evening, and again and even
stronger Saturday afternoon. This, along with low RH values, has
resulted in the issuance of a Fire Weather Watch (see the fire
weather watch for details). So please be careful with fireworks
- any fires that get started tonight will have an above-normal
chance to really get going tomorrow and into the weekend.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...Temps will remain hot and
get hotter through the long term period. The latest forecast
calls for readings above 100 in lower elevations Monday through
Thursday, with Wed and Thu expected top be the hottest days.
Records will be set through this period in many locations, and
all-time records may be reached. The all-time record for Boise,
for example, is 111. The latest forecast for Wed is 108, but
there`s a 40% chance of above 110 according to the NBM. Moisture
will eventually work its way around the west side of the ridge
and into our area next week, but uncertainty in timing is high.
Cloud cover associated with this moisture is the main factor
bringing uncertainty to the temperature forecast, as the models
are very consistent with the overall pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR under clear skies. Surface winds: NW 6-12 kt
with gusts to 20 kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: NW 10-20 kt.

KBOI...VFR under clear skies. NW 5-15 kt, becoming variable less
than 6 kt after 05/05Z.

Weekend Outlook...VFR under mostly clear skies. High density
altitude due to hot temperatures. Variable winds less than 10 kt
during the late evenings through mornings, and generally NW 5-15 kt
with gusts of 15-25 kt during the afternoons and early evenings.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Excessive Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through Wednesday
     afternoon IDZ012-029.
     Fire Weather Watch Friday evening IDZ424-426.
     Excessive Heat Watch from Monday afternoon through Wednesday
     afternoon IDZ014>016-030-033.
OR...Excessive Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through Wednesday
     afternoon ORZ061>064.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....SP
AVIATION.....SP