467
FXUS64 KBMX 110151
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
851 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
 Issued at 805 PM CDT SAT AUG 10 2024

00z BMX Raob had 1.27 inch precipitable water values and the
moisture was confined to levels 4500ft and below. Some northern
areas will experience dew points dropping into the 50s tonight and
Sunday as the drier air remains over Central Alabama. The quasi-
stationary front remains close by just to the south. This will set
up a good temperature gradient over the area. Little change to the
forecast this evening. Low temperatures will range from near 60
north to the lower 70s southeast. Highs will range from upper 80s
north to the upper 90s southeast. Too dry for any mention of rain.

75

Previous short-term discussion:
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 1147 AM CDT SAT AUG 10 2024

A large but flattened ridge extends across much of the southern half
of the CONUS while a broad upper-level low is centered over Ontario.
Sunny and hot conditions are expected today and tomorrow, but
temperatures are closer to normal thanks to dry, northerly flow
which is also resulting in dewpoint readings in the 60s to lower
70s. Overall, conditions will be seasonably pleasant for the next
couple of days as the ridge maintains control across the region.
Temperatures will be comfortably cool in the morning with many
communities waking up to readings in the 60s, and min RH during
the day will range from 30-50%.

86/Martin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT SAT AUG 10 2024

Overall flow and pattern has changed very little for the extended.
With northwesterly flow setting up by Tuesday into Friday, the MCS
train does appear to be fairly active. Trying to time out exactly
each one, will continue to cause some uncertainty in the forecast,
but the probability of seeing showers and storms for Wednesday
through Friday will be on the increase over the next few days.
With the increase in moisture by Wednesday and increasing
temperatures we will once again begin to get close to Heat
Advisory criteria by the end of the week and into weekend.

16

Previous long-term discussion:
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT SAT AUG 10 2024

Relatively cool temperatures are expected for Sunday night as
light northerly winds maintain a low PWAT airmass. Most locations
will see lows in the mid to upper 60s. Temperatures in the low to
mid 90s on Monday afternoon won`t feel too terrible with dewpoints
in the mid 60s. Higher moisture content lurking to the west will
begin to advect eastward on Tuesday as a deep-layer ridge builds
in from the west. Accordingly, temperatures and dewpoints will
trend upward. Models disagree somewhat on the position of ridge
Wednesday through Friday, but there appears to be a decent
potential for MCS activity during that period.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 805 PM CDT SAT AUG 10 2024

VFR conditions will remain over the area through Sunday. Little
cloud cover will grace the sky. Winds will be light northerly
overnight and north 5-10kts on Sunday. There may be a gusts into
the 15-20kt range here and there, but will be limited.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Drier air will remain in place over Central Alabama for the next
several days, keeping conditions mostly rain free through early next
week. Minimum RH values through Monday will drop into the 35 to 45
percent range each afternoon. 20 foot winds will be from the north
to northwest between 5 and 10 mph through Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     64  90  65  92 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    66  91  66  92 /   0  10   0   0
Birmingham  67  90  68  92 /   0  10   0   0
Tuscaloosa  66  90  67  93 /   0  10   0   0
Calera      68  90  68  92 /   0  10   0   0
Auburn      72  94  71  95 /   0  10   0  10
Montgomery  70  95  71  97 /   0  10   0   0
Troy        71  95  71  97 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...75
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...75