374
FXUS64 KBMX 041852
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
152 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 122 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2024

This afternoon.

Elongated mid-level ridging extended over much of the Southern
portion of the country. Surface high pressure was positioned to
the east of the Southeast Atlantic Coast while a cold front
extended from the Central Plains northeast across the Eastern Ohio
River Valley Region. A moist airmass exists from the surface up
to near 700 mb per BMX 04/12z sounding with some elevated
instability at that time. Surface heating and continued moist
conditions are supporting isolated showers with a few
thunderstorms across portions of the southern counties currently
with storm motions to the east around 15 mph.

Expect partly cloudy skies this afternoon with isolated showers
with a few thunderstorms, the better chances will be across
portions of our South-Central and Southeast counties through mid
afternoon. Additional activity will likely continue to develop
across portions of the northwest counties as well. Winds will be
from the south to southwest at 4-8 mph. High temperatures will
range from the low 90s in the higher elevations east to the mid
90s elsewhere. The combination of heat and humidity will create
heat index values in excess of 107 degrees this afternoon in
spots.

Tonight.

Mid-level ridging will contract slightly over the area while
surface high pressure becomes positioned to the southeast while an
outflow from convection across the Mid Mississippi River Valley
Region migrates southeast along outflow boundaries that will move
southeast into the Mid-South Region.

Expect partly cloudy skies tonight with isolated showers
lingering across the northwest with some thicker clouds expected.
Winds will be form the south at 3-6 mph. Low temperatures will be
in the mid 70s areawide.

Friday.

More modest ridging will extend zonally over the Gulf Coast
region while a trough dives southeast over the Midwest region
during the day. A surface cold front will move southeast into the
Mid-South Region during the morning and advance further southeast
toward the area by midday.

Expect increasing clouds from the northwest on Friday with
increasing chances for showers and some thunderstorms with best
potential northwest through midday, then expanding southeast with
time through the afternoon and into early evening. Winds will be
from the west at 5-10 mph. High temperatures will range from the
low 90s northwest and in the higher terrain east to the mid 90s
south and central. A heat advisory is being considered across much
of our far southern counties and some of our west-central
counties as thicker clouds and precipitation may not move into
those areas until later in the day as temperatures and humidity
values result in heat index values up to around 107 degrees by
early afternoon in some spots.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 152 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2024

No major changes have been made to the previous long-term forecast
this afternoon. Through Friday night, scattered to numerous
showers and storms should be ongoing as the surface front moves
into northwestern Alabama. With the loss of daytime heating,
coverage will decrease, but at least scattered convection will
remain possible through the overnight hours into Saturday morning.
As drier air advects southward at the surface and aloft by
Saturday afternoon, highest rain chances will remain across the
southern half of Central Alabama by Saturday afternoon.
Thankfully, heat indices will decrease due to the drier air, but
we`ll stay hot as highs top out in the low to mid 90s. The surface
front is still expected to move back northward by Sunday and into
Monday as 500mb flow becomes southwesterly. Guidance trends are
continuing to indicate a fairly wet pattern shaping up through
much of next week, with a tropical airmass setting up and
scattered to numerous storms during the afternoon hours through
next Wednesday.

56/GDG

Previous long-term discussion:
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2024

An amplified pattern for July will persist through the forecast
period, with a trough over the north-central CONUS downstream of a
strong ridge over the western CONUS. A weakness will extend down
into the south-central CONUS, with Hurricane Beryl eventually
spinning down in the Rio Grande vicinity. A subtropical ridge will
persist over the eastern Gulf and southeast Atlantic coast, though
not as strong as it has been recently. This will place Central
Alabama under moist southwesterly flow aloft. Most of the guidance
has been trending further south with the frontal passage Saturday
though some guidance has recently trended back the other way.
Therefore, did not make any big changes to the forecast over the
weekend. A still warm but dry air mass will be in place north of the
front, while south of the front a tropical-like air mass will
persists with scattered to numerous showers and storms. Another heat
advisory may be needed for some of the southeast counties Saturday
depending on the progression of the front. The front should lift
back to the north by Monday with the tropical-like air mass that has
already been in place returning to all of Central Alabama. This
combined with weak waves moving through the base of the trough
should result in above average chances of showers and storms next
week, though one wild card will be if the ridge over the eastern
Gulf ends up being stronger than currently forecast. The increased
coverage of showers and storms should help keep heat indices just
below 105.

32/Davis

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2024

VFR conditions will persist across much of the area this
afternoon and across the south-central areas overnight. Scattered
clouds with isolated showers and a few thunderstorms are expected
across much of the area this afternoon. Thunderstorm potential is
too low to include at any site but mentioned showers through 22z
followed by a prod30 through 04z tonight. Expect a decrease in the
activity overnight except for far northwest where a surface front
will approach the area, resulting in more clouds with continued
isolated showers overnight, expanding in coverage and area further
southeast through the morning on Friday.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hot and humid conditions will continue through the day on Sunday.
Following scattered showers and storms today, more widespread
coverage is expected on Friday as a front moves into the region.
With increased moisture, minimum RH values remain above 50
percent. 20-foot winds from the southwest to west will average
less than 10 mph through Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     74  94  71  92 /  30  60  60  30
Anniston    75  92  74  91 /  30  60  60  50
Birmingham  76  95  74  92 /  30  60  60  40
Tuscaloosa  76  94  73  93 /  30  60  60  40
Calera      75  94  75  93 /  30  60  60  50
Auburn      74  93  75  91 /  30  60  60  70
Montgomery  76  94  75  93 /  30  60  60  70
Troy        74  94  73  92 /  30  50  50  80

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following
counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Chilton-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-
Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-
Pike-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-
Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....56/GDG
AVIATION...05