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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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486 FXUS64 KBMX 291134 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 634 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 247 AM CDT SAT JUN 29 2024 The typical summer day with upper 80s to low 90s will be place again today. However, there should a little more than typical in the coverage of showers and storms expected. Despite high pressure aloft, plenty of moisture is abound in the lower levels. This will help increase coverage once again this afternoon. Instabilities will generally be between 2000 and 3000 j/kg this afternoon. This combined with fairly high PWATS should result in scattered to numerous showers/storms once again today, especially in the afternoons, with the peak heating and lingering into the early evening. Storms could be strong withe gusty winds and heavy downpours at times, but widespread severe conditions appear minimal. Dewpoints will be a touch higher, but with the added moisture in place highs will remain under control. However, portions of the west, especially northwest could see feels like temperatures near or slightly above 105 today. Therefore, have issued a Heat Advisory through 9 PM today/tonight for the western counties. Showers and storms linger into the early evening, then should dissipate in coverage. In place low clouds and patchy fog will develop. The heat will increase on Sunday and dewpoints should be even a degree higher than today. Right now feels like temperatures are between 104 and 108, so a Heat Advisory will likely be needed for Sunday as well. Biggest concern though with going ahead and issuing now will be the shower/storm coverage and how early does it begin. A few models are indicating the activity beginning as early as 10 AM, but differ in the location. Given some of this uncertainty will hold off on a second day for now. Coverage by the afternoon into the evening should be fairly high once again for late June. Look for highs in the low to middle 90s. 16 && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 237 AM CDT SAT JUN 29 2024 Key message: - After a brief respite from the humidity Monday for all but far southern portions of Central Alabama, heat indices will increase through the week with values near or above 105 degrees including on Independence Day. Strong subtropical ridge will be centered over the ArkLaTex Sunday night and Monday, with northerly to northwesterly flow aloft over Central Alabama. Scattered showers and storms will be ongoing Sunday evening along a pre-frontal trough. A much drier air mass will move in on Monday. Have lowered PoPs below NBM and further reductions may be necessary. Heat indices will remain near 105 across the south, but lower humidity levels are expected across the north though the dry air mass will warm efficiently. The subtropical ridge will move eastward over the area Monday night through Tuesday night. The lower dew points will be short-lived as higher dew points return from the east late Monday night in advance of a back door wedge front building down the East Coast. Increasing moisture with southeasterly flow and convergence along the wedge front will result in chances for isolated to widely scattered showers and storms returning. Lower highs will occur on Tuesday in the far eastern counties with the wedge while temperatures remain warm in the west where a few spots could see heat indices reaching 105. Ridging builds aloft Wednesday and Thursday, with some model disagreement on whether a weakness begins to develop by Friday. A tropical-like air mass will result in mainly widely scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms. Increasing temperatures and dew points will result in increasing heat indices near or above 105 each day. 32/Davis && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 633 AM CDT SAT JUN 29 2024 Any stratus and fog should lift and mix out by around 15Z. Isolated showers will be possible this morning at all sites, but any rain would be like 15 minutes and then a break, so will leave in VCSH through 18z. After 18z through 3z there will be VCSH and scattered TS. I have added in a tempo group for TSRA as well as prob30s. Best coverage should be in the afternoon but chances remain elevated throughout the day into the early evening. Right now looks like the best chances for MVFR ceilings or low will be across the south after 9z with patchy fog in the north. 16 && .FIRE WEATHER... A humid air mass will remain in place over the weekend with scattered to numerous showers and storms. A drier air mass temporarily moves in on Monday with RH values in the 35 to 45 percent range across the northern half of Central Alabama. Winds generally remain light throughout the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 91 71 96 70 / 70 30 70 20 Anniston 90 74 93 73 / 70 30 70 30 Birmingham 91 75 96 73 / 70 30 70 20 Tuscaloosa 92 75 96 73 / 70 50 70 30 Calera 92 76 95 74 / 70 40 70 30 Auburn 89 75 92 75 / 70 30 70 30 Montgomery 91 74 94 74 / 70 30 70 30 Troy 90 73 93 73 / 70 30 70 40 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for the following counties: Fayette-Greene-Lamar-Marion-Pickens-Sumter- Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....32 AVIATION...16