317
FXUS64 KBMX 030101
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
801 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 729 PM CDT TUE JUL 2 2024

Quasi-stationary front was located along the Alabama Florida
state line. An inverted trough was located along the Mississippi
Alabama state line. The easterly flow ushered in low level
moisture and it now covers the entire area. Surface dew points
were mainly in the 70s this afternoon. A few showers were near
this trough and added a slight chance of rain to the western areas
this evening. Otherwise, rain chances go away quickly by 10 pm.
With the low level moisture values rather high, lift around
sunrise will produce low clouds much like this morning. Expecting
these clouds areawide and the coverage will slightly decrease by
noon. Will keep lows from 70 to 80 degrees. A Heat Advisory was
issued for a large part of Central Alabama on Wednesday. High
temperatures in the middle 90s combined with dew points in the 70s
will produce heat indices of 105 to 109 degrees.

75

Previous short-term discussion:
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT TUE JUL 2 2024

The strong, mid-level ridge is centered over the Lower MS River
Valley while, at the surface, high pressure is focused along the
East Coast extending south into the Mid-Atlantic region. There`s
north-northeasterly flow aloft and east-southeasterly flow in the
lower levels. The low-level flow is providing a moist, humid
airmass which is resulting in mid 70s dewpoints, and a cu field
over much of the area. Temperatures have remained in the 80s
across the east, but will warm into the 90s in the west where heat
indices will approach 105F this afternoon and again tomorrow as
the moist airmass will still be in place. There`s weak surface
convergence associated with the stalled front to our south, and
showers have developed over southern Georgia. This activity could
slowly drift into southeast Alabama this afternoon, and may reach
southeastern portions of the forecast area. Muggy conditions are
expected overnight with lows in the mid 70s. Rain chances look
higher tomorrow as low-level moisture continues to advect inland
through the southerly flow, but the greatest likelihood of seeing
a shower or storm will be across the southern half of the area.
Otherwise, expect a mix of sun and clouds.

86/Martin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT TUE JUL 2 2024

Looking at the latest data, forecast thinking is in line with the
previous forecast, which is detailed below:

89^GSatterwhite

Previous long-term discussion:
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT TUE JUL 2 2024

Key messages:

- Heat indices at or above 105 degrees are expected across much of
  Central Alabama on Independence Day, along with scattered
  afternoon showers and storms. Make sure to stay hydrated and be
  prepared to move indoors if storms approach your outdoor
  activities.

- A transition to a wetter pattern will take place Friday through
  the weekend, with an eventual decrease in heat indices depending
  on the coverage of showers and storms each day.

Strong subtropical ridging initially over Central Alabama will
gradually weaken and move eastward to the East Coast through the
period, in response to a deepening trough over the north-central
CONUS resulting in a weakness in the ridge developing in the
south-central CONUS. Ridging remains in place on Independence Day,
however, but moisture will increase enough for scattered afternoon
showers and storms across all of Central Alabama. Some isolated
showers and storms may linger into the evening, diminishing after
sunset. Heat indices outside of convection should be at or above
105 across much of Central Alabama. On Friday a seasonally strong
shortwave will be moving through the Midwest while a cold front
sinks southeastward into the Mid-South. The southern fringe of the
westerlies associated with the trough will move into the northern
half of Central Alabama. In response to these features showers
and storms should increase in coverage especially across the
northern half of Central Alabama. Dew points will remain high but
temperatures will be dependent on how quickly storms develop/move
into the area, which will determine where heat indices reach 105
degrees.

A pattern change will be in place by this weekend into early next
week with southwest flow aloft ahead of troughing over the Central
CONUS. A frontal boundary will remained stalled across the area
with above average rain chances along and southeast of it. This
should provide some relief from the higher heat indices, though
they may still reach 105 in some of the southern counties
depending on convection. Meanwhile Hurricane Beryl is forecast by
NHC to weaken to a tropical storm by the time it reaches the
southwestern Gulf on Saturday. There is quite a bit of ensemble
spread regarding whether it will continue moving westward into
Mexico, or get pulled northward by the trough into the
northwestern Gulf. If the further east solutions happen to verify,
it`s plausible that some tropical moisture could wrap around the
ridge towards us. Regardless, a wetter and less oppressive pattern
looks to be setting up by next week.

32/Davis

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 729 PM CDT TUE JUL 2 2024

Minimal convection this evening and will not mention any rain
chances overnight. With the low level moisture running high and
some lift available, expect redevelopment of the low clouds
around sunrise. Mentioned MVFR prevailing with a few locations
tempo IFR for a few hours. The typical thinning and lifting of
the cloud bases expected by 16-17z. There will be enough moisture
and instability to mention PROB30 coverage of thunderstorms in the
afternoon at most sites. Light east to southeast winds overnight
and increasing to 5-10kts on Wednesday.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hot and humid conditions are expected over the coming days.
Isolated showers and storms are possible today near and south of
the Interstate 85 corridor. Scattered showers and storms are
possible each afternoon and evening heading into the weekend. No
issues from RHs. 20-foot winds will average less than 10 mph, from
the southeast to southwest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     72  95  72  94 /  10  20  10  40
Anniston    74  93  75  94 /  10  30  10  40
Birmingham  76  95  76  95 /  10  30  10  40
Tuscaloosa  77  95  76  96 /  10  30  10  40
Calera      76  94  76  93 /  10  30  10  40
Auburn      75  90  75  91 /  10  50  20  50
Montgomery  75  93  76  95 /  20  60  20  50
Troy        73  92  73  94 /  20  70  20  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for the following
counties: Barbour-Blount-Bullock-Coosa-Elmore-Jefferson-Macon-
Marion-Montgomery-Pike-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-Walker-Winston.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Wednesday for the following
counties: Autauga-Bibb-Chilton-Dallas-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Lamar-
Lowndes-Marengo-Perry-Pickens-Sumter-Tuscaloosa.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...75
LONG TERM....89^GSatterwhite
AVIATION...75