991
FXUS63 KBIS 030012
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
712 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms could produce
  wind gusts as high as 50 mph across western and central North
  Dakota this evening.

- Low to medium chances (20 to 40 percent) for showers and
  thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night,
  highest in the southwest where a few stronger storms are
  possible.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely on Independence
  Day, but the entire day should not be a washout.

- Slightly below normal temperatures will continue through the
  holiday weekend, with highs mainly in the 70s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 709 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

At 700 PM CDT, a broken line of showers and thunderstorms was
located from western McLean County to near Hettinger, moving east-
southeast. Isolated wind gusts near 50 mph have been associated with
this line for the past couple hours. The showers and storms may
persist at their current intensity and pace for the next hour or
two, but should not strengthen any further, before dissipating
around sunset time.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Temperatures this week will remain near average (upper 70s,
lower 80s) with daily chances of non-severe showers and
thunderstorms.

Currently a stacked low sits north of Minnesota in Canada.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms have formed in the cyclonic
flow in the Dakotas around the low. A few of them have some
lightning strikes with them, otherwise expect mostly quick shots
of rain and gusty winds. More showers will likely move in from
Montana this evening. These will continue until the diurnal
heating relaxes around sunset. With a surface high pressure to
our southwest, skies will also clear overnight and remain mostly
sunny Wednesday until the evening when an open wave moves
through aloft. Most CAMs have popcorn storms like this
afternoon. There will be more CAPE available, around 1000 J/kg,
with 30kts of shear in the far southwest. So there is a small
chance a storm could go severe for a short time in the southwest
or the far south central tier of counties in the early evening.
The SPC has a marginal for Bowman, Adams, and Sioux Counties.
However the chances seem to be very low.

Independence Day could be fairly wet during the morning and
afternoon. The NBM has 60-80 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms, but they are looking to be popcorn showers once
again. If you try to keep your outside plans be sky aware,
especially with lightning. Lightning can strike several miles
away from the storm. After 7pm CT, the chances for storm
decreases greatly so firework shows may still happen.

Another stacked low looks to form over Nebraska and move into
Minnesota Thursday night into Friday. This will bring our next
chance (30%) of showers and thunderstorms. Then again Saturday
as a clipper system clips the state. A slight shortwave then
moves through Sunday bringing another chance (30%) to the north
and east. The start of next week looks dry as a general ridging
pattern will be over the western half of the CONUS. Temperatures
look to remain in the lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 709 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will remain possible
across western and central North Dakota this evening. Aside from
lightning, the main aviation hazard from these showers and storms is
gusty winds as high as 40 kts. Brief periods of visibility as low as
IFR levels can also be expected if a heavier shower or storm moves
directly over a terminal. The highest probability for aviation
impacts at the major airports is at KBIS. The showers and storms
should dissipate around sunset. Additional showers and storms could
develop Wednesday afternoon, with the highest chances in southwest
North Dakota. VFR conditions are otherwise expected through the
forecast period. West-northwest winds will diminish to around 5-10
kts later this evening and persist at that strength through
Wednesday.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hollan
DISCUSSION...Smith
AVIATION...Hollan