196
FXUS61 KBGM 171105
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
705 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected through this weekend,
especially on Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will trend cooler
though the weekend. Drier conditions will return Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
630 AM Update:

The cluster of showers that has pushed through the area has
progressed eastward a bit quicker than previously forecast and
is currently located mainly across areas east of I-81,
especially towards the Catskills. Made adjustments to PoPs for
the next few hours to account this slightly quicker progression.
Behind this initial cluster of showers, a few isolated showers
are present, but mainly dry. Expecting that trend to continue,
before there will be a resurgence of scattered showers and some
thunderstorms by late this morning into the afternoon.

440 AM Update:

Overall, an unsettled period of weather is expected in the near
term with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms and also
the potential for heavy rainfall/localized flash flooding,
especially on Sunday.

An already slow moving trough/upper level low will be slowed
further as Hurricane Ernesto moves northeastward in the
Atlantic. Our region will only be on the eastern periphery of
this trough today and therefore, coverage of showers and
thunderstorms will be scattered/less widespread compared to
Sunday. As a result, there will be some dry breaks in between
rounds of showers. By this afternoon, a more concentrated batch
of showers and some thunderstorms may impact portions of
Northeast PA. Isolated flash flooding will be possible, but the
greater threat currently looks to be on Sunday. Some
thunderstorms may produce some gusty winds, but at this time,
any severe thunderstorm potential looks to be on the lower side
and mainly confined to the Finger Lakes Region. Highs are
currently expected to be in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

Additional rounds of scattered showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms are possible tonight, mainly across the Poconos-
Catskills. Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies are expected with lows
in the 60s.

As the trough/upper level low moves closer to the region from
the Great Lakes and embedded shortwaves move through the area,
coverage of showers and thunderstorms look to be more widespread
on Sunday, especially in the afternoon. PWATs will also be
around 1.75" with a southeast flow advecting in moist, Atlantic
moisture. While the threat for flash flooding does not look
widespread at this time, it is higher than today. Greatest
chance for this would be across the Poconos-Catskills/the
southeastern portion of our area. Otherwise, it will be a
mostly cloudy day with highs mainly in the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
335 AM Update:

An upper-level low opens into a trough that will move into the
Northeast Sunday night and into Monday. This will keep showers over
the region throughout much of the short term forecast period. With
this system, there will be plenty of moisture. PWATs are expected to
max out between 1.7 to 2.0. The concern for localized flooding will
mainly be Sunday night. Some lingering issues will be possible
Monday as well, but the risk will be lower. A cold front will push
through late Monday and overnight, so showers continue through
Monday night as well, but are expected to be lighter. A Marginal
Risk for excessive rainfall covers areas along and east of I-81 on
Monday.

Models are showing some instability, so thunderstorms will also be
possible, especially Monday afternoon. MLCAPE values will be less
than 1000 J/kg and 0-6 km shear will only be 20 to 30 kts. The
threat for stronger storms is low at this time, especially with
better conditions expected south of our region.

Temperatures Sunday night will fall into the 60s. Then on Monday,
they won`t rebound much and only max out in the 70s. Strong
northerly flow will advect colder air behind the cold front so temps
will fall into the upper 40s to mid 50s Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
345 AM Update:

Showers and isolated will linger into Tuesday, though the best
chances will be east of I-81 and mainly over the Catskills and
Poconos. High pressure and drier air will be filling in behind these
departing showers, which will result in an extended period of dry
conditions lasting through the end of the week. After a cool day on
Tuesday of 60s for highs and 40s for nighttime lows, temperatures
trend warmer but will remain comfortable. Highs will be in the 70s
and lows will be in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR to Fuel Alternate ceilings are expected today, along with
scattered rain showers. The one terminal that might remain
mainly VFR is KSYR, but there is still a possibility for brief
MVFR ceiling restrictions there later this morning. There is a
possibility for some thunderstorms at times, but confidence is
too low to include in the TAF at any particular terminal at this
time. Ceiling restrictions are expected to remain tonight, with
IFR ceilings possible at KBGM.

.Outlook...

Sunday through Monday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms may
bring occasional restrictions.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG
SHORT TERM...BTL
LONG TERM...BTL/MPH
AVIATION...BJG