456
FXUS61 KBGM 041405
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1005 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Humidity will be increasing today with a hot and muggy
afternoon expected for Independence day. A few scattered showers
and thunderstorms develop in the Southern Tier into NE PA this
afternoon and overnight that could impact some firework
displays. Muggy conditions last into Friday with continued risk
of thunderstorms into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

1000 am update...

Minor adjustments to the cloud cover, PoPs and temperatures
through the near term period based on latest satellite, radar
and other observations. Latest CAMs such as the 12z HRRR and 06z
3km NAM were also incorporated into the official forecast.
Moisture, and surface dew points are increasing over western
NY/PA at this time. SPC meso-analysis shows this is where
surface based and mixed layer CAPE is building most effectively
this morning. Overall, it appears some isolated to sct`d
thunderstorm activity will develop this afternoon and evening,
mainly from the Southern Tier down across portions of NE PA.
Exact timing and location of any thunderstorms is uncertain at
this time...however these could linger in a few locations
through sunset and into the late evening hours. This will be
watched closely. Guidance shows upwards of 500 J/Kg of MLCAPE
later this afternoon and evening, along with about 40 kts of
0-6km bulk shear and pwats around 1.8" so a few stronger storms
with gusty winds and torrential downpours cannot be ruled out.

630 am update...

Updated QPF amounts tonight into tomorrow as showers look a bit
more widespread in the 6Z model runs. Also updated chances of
precipitation for that reason. Showers are popping up on MRMS
this morning so some higher chances of showers were introduced
to the Southern Tier and NEPA through 10AM.

230 AM Update...

The showers early this morning across the Finger Lakes into the
Tug Hill have been spotty so precipitation chances were lowered
through the morning hours. Observations across the region show
southerly flow with higher dew points advecting in from the
south so this afternoon will feel muggy as those dew points rise
to near 70. The NBM was being a little aggressive with the
afternoon dew points so a couple of drier models were blended
in.

Given the forecast soundings across the Southern Tier into
NEPA, chances of precipitation were raised and the wording
changed to coverage rather than uncertainty as there is plenty
of surface based CAPE and not much cin.

Tonight, the HRRR wants to have more widespread showers and
thunderstorms but it is an outlier right now. Looking at the
HREF most of the CAMs have surface high pressure building in and
keeps the strongest warm air advection to the south. It looks
like what triggers the nocturnal convection in the HRRR is the
development of a 500 mb shortwave with an MCS that forms today
in the central plains.

Friday is looking a little warmer than today with better CAPE
across the area. There will be good shear in place with forecast
hodographs in the HREF members with 40 knot mean 0-6 km shear.
Low level shear is on the lower side with 0-1 km shear around
15. There is a lot of difference in the directional shear with
the CAMs in our region late in the day and that is likely tied
to the uncertainty in whether an MCV can develop with an MCS in
the central plains today into tonight. This could lead to more
turning in the low levels and potentially a bigger risk for
severe storms if an MCV develops and actually moves into our
region. Right now with straighter hodographs and most of the
shear above 3 km, the severe risk is more limited to wind and
low level lapse rates are not great. CAPE is also looking long
and skinny with precipitable water values over 1.5 inches so
flash flooding is possible if any locations can get multiple
rounds of convection over the next couple of days.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Friday night our region looks to be firmly in a warm sector ahead of
an approaching cold front. PW values look rather high from
1.75-2 inches. Enough lift and moisture does look present for
some scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front. The
high PW values may yield a locally heavy rain threat too with
small stream and poor drainage flooding in a few spots. A
sticky night as well with lows around 70.

The cold front then looks to push through the region early Saturday.
Timing currently would allow for a mainly dry weekend outside a
lingering shower or two Saturday morning. Humidity does ease a bit
after the cold frontal passage resulting in slightly cooler nights
with lows in the 60`s. Most locations should get well into the 80`s
for highs this weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure gradually builds into the region Sunday and Monday
keeping a thunderstorm free period going into next week. However,
heat and humidity will start to increase on the backside of the
high. Highs may push 90 Monday and Tuesday with muggy lows only
getting close to 70 again Monday and Tuesday nights.

Another cold front looks to push toward the region for our next
chance of showers and thunderstorms later Tuesday through Wednesday.
Temperatures should trend slightly cooler as well.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR cigs at SYR and RME will lift and scatter out by around 14Z
with some intermittent MVFR cigs at ITH, BGM, and ELM through
16Z as a front moves through. The front will reach AVP this
afternoon and spark of some scattered showers and thunderstorms
with a low chance of the terminal getting a direct impact.

Tonight, high pressure builds in at the surface with largely
calm winds. It looks like there will be a few showers and
thunderstorms across CNY into NEPA but they will be spotty so no
showers or thunder has been added to the TAFs yet. With some
clear skies between the showers and high low level humidity, fog
chances are high especially for ELM. Lower chances exist at BGM.
ITH, and AVP that will be dependent on if any rain can fall
near the airports.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Saturday Night...More unsettled pattern
with chances of showers and thunderstorms with associated
restrictions.

Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...AJG/MJM
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...AJG/MPK