207
FXUS61 KBGM 161950
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
350 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be warm and dry, but the next system moves into the
region tonight with rain continuing through the weekend and into
MOnday. Afternoon thunderstorms will also be possible Saturday
and Sunday. Temperatures will trend cooler though the weekend.
Drier conditions will return Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
345 PM Update...
Upper level ridge axis runs across central NY and PA, while an
upper low is carving itself out over the western Great Lakes.
High clouds are slowly creeping closer as the ridge slowly
shifts east, and very spotty showers are also noted over parts
of western NY, and moreso over western PA and Ohio.

The ridge axis will drift east into New England overnight, with
weak PVA bringing scattered showers into the region late tonight
into Saturday morning. Models have trended weaker and more
spotty with this initial round of showers.

Forcing during the day Saturday also has trended weaker, and a
fairly strong inversion around 900-800 mb will limit instability
over all but the far western Finger Lakes region. Isolated
severe thunderstorms can`t be ruled out, but the risk looks to
be limited to far western portions of the Finger Lakes Region
and nearby Southern Tier counties.

Considering the trends, Saturday might not be too terrible all
things considered, with relatively spotty precip, particularly
across Central NY. Shower coverage looks to be somewhat higher
across the Poconos and Catskills. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms will become more likely heading into Saturday
night and Sunday as the upper low moves closer.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
345 PM Update:

A deep upper low will trek across the Great Lakes this weekend.
Precip chances will ramp up Saturday Night and especially Sunday
as the upper low moves closer, and shortwave troughs embedded in
southwesterly flow move through the area. Low level convergence
will also increase ahead of a prefrontal surface trough Sunday
afternoon, and a jet streak developing over eastern PA/NJ will
enhance upper level divergence.

Meanwhile, deeper moisture in place will lift PWAT values to
around 1.70-1.90 inches. The risk for flooding looks to be
localized in scope, and dependent on training thunderstorms. The
risk looks to be highest in the Catskills and NEPA, where low
level SSE to SE flow will enhance moisture advection.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
350 PM Update:

The Great Lakes upper low will open up into a trough on Monday
as it moves into New York and New England. Showers look to
continue from Sunday Night into Monday, as a cold front pushes
through the area.

A cooler and drier air mass will work into the area behind the
front, bringing an end to precip Monday night. Dry conditions
will then persist through much of the remainder of the week.

Temperatures will be noticeably cooler, especially on Tuesday as
highs struggle to get out of the upper-60s in many areas. Ideal
conditions for radiational cooling could lead to lows reaching
the 40s by Wednesday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upper level ridging will keep VFR conditions in place this
afternoon and evening, with increasing high and mid level clouds
working in from the west. A slow-moving upper low over the
Great Lakes will bring southwesterly flow aloft overnight, with
embedded disturbances bringing increasing chances for showers
and isolated thunderstorms overnight and through the day
Saturday. VFR conditions will hold on most of the night, but
ceilings will lower into MVFR range early Saturday morning.

Winds will remain fairly light, 5-10 knots through the period,
with a few gusts around 15 knots possible overnight into
Saturday.

Thunder chances will increase Saturday afternoon, but confidence
in timing is too low to include in TAFs at this point.


.Outlook...

Saturday Evening through Monday...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms may bring occasional restrictions.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPH
NEAR TERM...MPH
SHORT TERM...MPH
LONG TERM...MPH
AVIATION...MPH