265
FXUS61 KBGM 151025
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
625 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions will persist through Tuesday before
temperatures start to cool down Wednesday, and especially for
the end of the week. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
in some spots each afternoon through Wednesday, especially today
and Tuesday. Drier weather will arrive late this week and will
likely persist through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
615 AM Update:

A cluster of showers have developed across parts of the Twin
Tiers, especially the Southern Tier of NY into the Catskills.
This was likely at least partially sparked by a weak shortwave
working its way through the area. Therefore, made some
significant adjustments to PoPs for the next few hours.

One potential tidbit of note is that cloud cover is still quite
extensive from this passing weak shortwave, even where there
are currently no showers. Behind these clouds, there will likely
still be some clearing, but the rather narrow window of
clearing could possibly reduce instability today and therefore
diminish the severe thunderstorm potential for this afternoon.
This could also result in temperatures being a bit cooler than
currently forecasted. Not making any adjustments to the forecast
for this afternoon right now and it is still possible that the
scattered severe thunderstorm threat still materializes, but
this is something we`ll be keeping an eye on throughout the day.

440 AM Update:

Quite an active/complex period of weather is expected during
the near term period with a combination of heat concerns as well
as concerns for strong to severe thunderstorms both this
afternoon and Tuesday afternoon.

An MCS and shortwave across Illinois and Indiana will move
eastward throughout the day. While this will gradually decay as
it moves eastward, it will arrive in our region by late this
afternoon/early this evening, which will be coincided by peak
heating on a hot and humid day (more on the heat a bit later in
this discussion). 25-35 kts of bulk shear combined with
1000-1500 J/kg of CAPE will set the stage for some strong to
severe thunderstorms to move through the area during this
timeframe. Some limiting factors include modest lapse rates and
the somewhat later timing of this event with it being a late
afternoon into the evening event, especially farther to the
southeast/across the Poconos-Catskills. In any event, while this
does not appear to be a widespread/high-end severe weather
event, some thunderstorms will have the potential to produce
locally damaging wind gusts, which is supported by inverted-V
modeled soundings. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out
either, but this appears to be more of a microburst/damaging
wind threat compared to last week`s event. SPC has upgraded most
of our area to a Slight Risk in their Day 1 Convective Outlook.

The other story for today will be the heat and humidity as
temperatures will rise into the mid 80s to lower 90s and dew
points in the upper 60s to lower 70s. This will result in heat
indices in the mid 90s for many of the valley locations and
urban areas, although even this is a bit uncertain. The above
mentioned afternoon convection could result in slightly cooler
temperatures and therefore lower heat indices. If the convection
holds off longer, then these heat indices have a better chance
of being realized. Either way, the message remains the same; it
will be hot and humid today with afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms developing. No changes were made to existing
Heat Advisories.

Showers and thunderstorms will gradually diminish in activity as
the evening progresses and will be mostly over before midnight
tonight. Otherwise, it will be partly cloudy tonight with lows
in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

Very similar weather conditions are expected on Tuesday with
more heat and humidity and more afternoon showers and
thunderstorms, some which may become strong to severe with an
increasing flow aloft. Similar to today, there remains a bit of
uncertainty regarding heat indices, depending on the timing and
coverage of afternoon convection. Either way, it will be another
hot day with highs again in the mid 80s to lower 90s and dew
points in the upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
455 AM Update...

Showers and thunderstorms will push east of the area Tuesday
evening, though a few lingering showers will persist after
midnight.

A fairly strong shortwave trough will move across the upper
Great Lakes on Wednesday, with additional weaker upper level
disturbances embedded in SW flow aloft passing through our area
as a cold front approaches from the west. Expect fairly
widespread showers and thunderstorms again on Wednesday, with
the risk for severe thunderstorms lingering in the Catskills and
NEPA in the afternoon, ahead of the front.

Showers and thunderstorms will again push east of the area for
Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
455 AM Update...

The main shortwave trough will lift into the lower Saint
Lawrence valley early Thursday, but a secondary trough will
sweep across the region Thursday afternoon. Moisture will be
lacking, but an isolated shower can`t be ruled out until the
trough axis moves east of the area. Cooler NW flow will drop
temperatures into the middle to upper-70s across much of the
area, though the Wyoming Valley may hang on to lower-80s.

Fair weather looks to persist on Friday and into the weekend,
though there`s a slight chance some moisture and a few showers
may try to sneak in from the south late Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions will persist through the next 24 hours (at
least through 06Z Tuesday). However, showers and thunderstorms
will move into the area late this afternoon into this evening
and at least MVFR ceiling and/or visby restrictions will be
possible in any of these thunderstorms. Maintained the PROB30
thunder groups that were present in the previous set of TAFs,
but just made minor tweaks to the timing of them. In any
thunderstorm, gusty winds will also be a brief concern.
Shower/thunderstorm activity will diminish late this
evening/towards the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Wednesday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms
may bring occasional restrictions, especially each afternoon;
otherwise mainly VFR.

Thursday through Friday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NYZ015-
     016-018-022>025-036-037-055-056-062.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG
SHORT TERM...MPH
LONG TERM...MPH
AVIATION...BJG