995
WTNT32 KNHC 042035
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
500 PM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024

...CENTER OF BERYL HEADING FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...
...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND DAMAGING WAVES EXPECTED
ON THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY EARLY FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 84.3W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM ESE OF TULUM MEXICO
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM W OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Puerto Costa
Maya to Cancun, including Cozumel

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto
Costa Maya to Chetumal
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to
Cabo Catoche

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto
Costa Maya to Chetumal
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to
Campeche

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of Belize from south of Chetumal to Belize City

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
24 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the
western Gulf of Mexico, including southern Texas and northeastern
Mexico, should closely monitor the progress of Beryl.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located
near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 84.3 West. Beryl is moving
toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h). A westward to west-
northwestward motion is expected during the next day or so, with
the center expected to make landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico early Friday.  Beryl is expected to emerge over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico Friday night and move northwestward
across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday and Saturday
night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Slow weakening is forecast before the center makes
landfall, with additional weakening expected while Beryl crosses
the Yucatan Peninsula.  Slow re-intensification is expected when
Beryl moves over the Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area on the Yucatan Peninsula tonight or early Friday.  Winds are
expected to first reach tropical storm strength as early as this
evening, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along
the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula as early as tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch
area along portions of the coast of Belize by tonight or early
Friday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 3 to
5 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds along the east
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula within the hurricane warning area
and by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level along the west
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in the tropical storm warning area.

Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL:  Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 6
inches, with localized amounts of 10 inches, later today into Friday
across the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered instances of flash flooding
are anticipated across the Yucatan Peninsula.  Rainfall will be
diminishing across the Cayman Islands this evening.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF:  Large swells generated by Beryl are currently impacting
portions of the coast of Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, the
Yucatan Peninsula.  The swells are expected to reach eastern Mexico
and much of the Gulf Coast of the U.S. by late Friday. These swells
are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven