461
WTNT32 KNHC 041444
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
1100 AM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024

...CENTER OF BERYL MOVING AWAY FROM THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...
...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND DAMAGING WAVES EXPECTED
ON THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO BY EARLY FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 82.6W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM WSW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM ESE OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Cayman
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Puerto Costa
Maya to Cancun, including Cozumel

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto
Costa Maya to Chetumal
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to
Cabo Catoche

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto
Costa Maya to Chetumal
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to
Campeche

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of Belize from south of Chetumal to Belize City

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
24 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the
western Gulf of Mexico, including southern Texas and northeastern
Mexico, should closely monitor the progress of Beryl.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located
near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 82.6 West. Beryl is moving
toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). A westward to west-
northwestward motion is expected during the next day or two, taking
the core of Beryl away from the Cayman Islands through this
afternoon and over the Yucatan Peninsula early Friday. Beryl is
expected to emerge over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico Friday
night and move northwestward across the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico on Saturday.

Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 115 mph
(185 km/h) with higher gusts.  Beryl is a category 3 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Weakening is forecast
during the next day or two, though Beryl is forecast to remain a
hurricane until it makes landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter data is 971 mb (28.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to subside over portions of
the Cayman Islands during the next few hours, with tropical storm
conditions subsiding this afternoon.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area on
the Yucatan Peninsula tonight or early Friday.  Winds are expected
to first reach tropical storm strength later today, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along
the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula as early as tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area of the Yucatan Peninsula late today.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch
area along portions of the coast of Belize by tonight or early
Friday.

STORM SURGE:  Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2
to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along
the immediate coast of the Cayman Islands.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet
above ground level in areas of onshore winds along the east coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula within the hurricane warning area and by as
much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level along the west coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula in the tropical storm warning area.

Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL:  Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 6
inches over the Cayman Islands today. Over the Yucatan Peninsula,
Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches, with
localized amounts of 10 inches, later today into Friday. Scattered
instances of flash flooding are anticipated.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF:  Large swells generated by Beryl are currently impacting
portions of the coast of Jamaica, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands.
These swells are expected to spread to the Yucatan Peninsula and
portions of Central America later today and to eastern Mexico and
much of the Gulf Coast of the U.S. by late Friday. These swells are
expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven