225
WTNT42 KNHC 042036
TCDAT2

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
500 PM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024

The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that left the storm
around 17Z reported that the central pressure had risen to near 974
mb, and also reported flight-level and SFMR winds supporting an
intensity of 95 kt.  Since that time, as happened yesterday
afternoon, despite the ongoing shear the eye has become better
defined in both satellite imagery and in radar data from Grand
Cayman and Cuba.  Given this increase in central core organization,
the initial intensity will be held at 95 kt pending the arrival of
the next aircraft near 00Z.  Satellite imagery also shows that the
outflow has become better defined in the northeastern semicircle.

The initial motion is 285/17, although the last several satellite
images suggest a westward wobble is in progress.  There is again
little change in either the track forecast philosophy or the track
forecast from the previous advisory. A large ridge centered over
the southeastern U.S. should cause Beryl to move westward or
west-northwestward during the next day or so, with the model
guidance tightly clustered about a landfall on the Yucatan
Peninsula in 12-18 h and emerging into the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico at around 30 h.  After that, Beryl should turn northwest
toward a developing break in the subtropical ridge caused by a
mid-latitude trough over the central United States. This general
motion should continue until the cyclone makes landfall on the
western Gulf coast between 72-96 h.  There is still some spread in
the track guidance regarding a landfall location, with the range of
possibilities from northeastern Mexico to the middle Texas coast.
Users are reminded that the average track forecast error at day 3
is about 100 miles and at day 4 is about 150 miles, and so it is
still too early to pinpoint a specific region for the worst hazards.
The new official forecast is a little north of the previous
forecast through 24 h and similar to the previous forecast after
that.

It is unclear whether the current developments with the hurricane
core and outflow are temporary or a sign that the westerly shear
has somewhat abated.  The intensity forecast follows the premise
that the shear has not fully abated and that Beryl will weaken
before landfall.  However, even the intensity guidance that
forecasts weakening keeps Beryl at hurricane strength at landfall
on the Yucatan Peninsula.  Additional weakening should occur while
the center is over land.  Over the Gulf of Mexico, the guidance
does not forecast a lot of strengthening, but conditions appear
generally favorable and the intensity forecast continues to show
Beryl at hurricane strength before landfall on the western Gulf
coast.  It should be noted that the dynamical models suggest that
the best chance for re-intensification could be during the last
12-18 hr before the western Gulf landfall, with the storm slow to
intensify before that time.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane-force winds, dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall
are expected over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula beginning
tonight as Beryl approaches that area as a hurricane. Hurricane and
Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for portions of that area.

2. There is an increasing risk of strong winds, storm surge, and
heavy rainfall in portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas
later this weekend. Interests in these areas should closely monitor
the progress of Beryl and updates to the forecast.

3. Rip currents could cause life-threatening beach conditions
beginning late Friday and continuing through the weekend across much
of the Gulf coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/2100Z 19.5N  84.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  05/0600Z 20.0N  86.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  05/1800Z 20.7N  89.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 36H  06/0600Z 21.6N  91.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  06/1800Z 22.6N  93.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  07/0600Z 23.6N  95.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  07/1800Z 24.5N  96.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  08/1800Z 26.5N  98.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
120H  09/1800Z 29.0N  99.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven