236
AXNT20 KNHC 020559
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Jul 2 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0535 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Major Hurricane Beryl is near 14.2N 65.8W at 2 AM EDT, and is
moving west-northwest at 19 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 145
kt with gusts to 175 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 935
mb. Peak seas are currently around 43 ft. Numerous moderate to
scattered strong convection is noted up to 90 nm from the center.
Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 11N to 20N and
between 61W and 68W. Beryl is a category 5 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in strength are
likely during the next day or so, but Beryl is expected to still be
near major hurricane intensity as its moves into the central
Caribbean and passes near Jamaica on Wednesday.  Additional
weakening is expected thereafter, though Beryl is forecast to
remain a hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean. Beryl is forecast
to continue moving rapidly west-northwestward during the next couple
of days. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will move
quickly across the southeastern and central Caribbean Sea today
and is forecast to pass near Jamaica on Wednesday. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS and OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
issued by the National Hurricane center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more detail. For
the latest Beryl and remnants of Chris NHC Forecast/Advisory and
Public Advisory, visit www.hurricanes.gov for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has been introduced in the eastern Atlantic based
on satellite imagery, Hovmoller diagram and wave guidance data.
The wave is along 19W, south of 16N, and moving westward at 15 kt.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from
05N to 15N and east of 30W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave (Invest 96L) is along 42W, south
of 16N, moving westward at 15 kt. Isolated to scattered moderate
convection is noted from 05N to 13N and between 38W and 46W. A
recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to strong
easterly winds from 10N to 21N and between 40W and 52W. Peak seas
are currently around 9 ft. Environmental conditions are only
marginally conducive for additional development of this system
while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across the
central and western tropical Atlantic. Interests in the Lesser
Antilles should still monitor the progress of this system, with
heavy rainfall possible midweek. This system has a low chance of
development in the next 48 hours and 7 days. Please refer to the
latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more
detail.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 80W, south of 19N, moving
westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is present in the SW Caribbean, especially south of 16N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 20N16W and continues southwestward to 10N33W and
to Invest 96L near 11N42W and then to 06N52W. For details on
convection, please read the Tropical Waves section.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

An expansive subtropical ridge centered west of the Azores extends
southwestward to the Gulf of Mexico. The weak pressure gradient
across the basin result in moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas. A few storms currently in the southern Bay of
Campeche developed earlier this evening over western Yucatan.
Along the northern Gulf coast, a surface trough and divergence
aloft sustain isolated showers over the nearshore waters.
Elsewhere, fairly tranquil weather conditions prevail.

For the forecast, a ridge across the northern Gulf will linger
through Thursday in advance of Hurricane Beryl now in the eastern
Caribbean. Major Hurricane Beryl is near 14.2N 65.8W at 2 AM EDT,
and is moving west-northwest at 19 kt. Maximum sustained winds
are 145 kt with gusts to 175 kt, and the minimum central pressure
is 935 mb. Beryl will move to 14.8N 67.7W Tue morning, 15.9N 71.5W
Tue evening, 16.8N 75.2W Wed morning, 17.7N 78.6W Wed evening,
18.2N 82.2W Thu morning, and 18.6N 85.4W Thu evening. Beryl will
weaken to a tropical storm over 20.5N 91.0W late Fri, then move to
22.5N 95.0W late Sat. Meanwhile, moderate seas in the western
Gulf due to dissipated Chris will subside through early Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section on the latest details on
Major Hurricane Beryl over the Eastern Caribbean.

Outside of the influence of Beryl, fresh to strong easterly trade
winds are evident in the central Caribbean Sea, with the
strongest winds occurring off NW Colombia and south of Hispaniola.
This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas
in these waters are 5-8 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, Major Hurricane Beryl is near 14.2N 65.8W at 2 AM EDT,
and is moving west-northwest at 19 kt. Maximum sustained winds
are 145 kt with gusts to 175 kt, and the minimum central pressure
is 935 mb. Beryl will move to 14.8N 67.7W Tue morning, 15.9N
71.5W Tue evening, 16.8N 75.2W Wed morning, 17.7N 78.6W Wed
evening, 18.2N 82.2W Thu morning, and 18.6N 85.4W Thu evening.
Beryl will weaken to a tropical storm over 20.5N 91.0W late Fri,
then move to 22.5N 95.0W late Sat. A surge of fresh to strong
winds and squalls is expected to move across the tropical N
Atlantic Tue night through Wed, then across the eastern and
central Caribbean Wed through Fri, associated with a tropical
wave, AL96, which has the potential for tropical cyclone formation
during that time.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section on the latest details on
Major Hurricane Beryl over the Eastern Caribbean.

An expansive 1034 mb high pressure system centered west of the
Azores dominates the tropical Atlantic. An upper level low near
32N56W supports isolated showers and a couple of thunderstorms
north of 27N and between 53W and 60W. Similar convection is noted
in the NW Bahamas and NE of the Leeward Islands. Fresh to strong
easterly winds are occurring south of 21N and west of 55W. Seas in
these waters are 8-11 ft. In the eastern Atlantic, the pressure
gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the NW Africa
sustain fresh to strong north of 20N and east of 30W. Seas in the
area described are 6-9 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, Major Hurricane Beryl is near 14.2N
65.8W at 2 AM EDT, and is moving west-northwest at 19 kt. Maximum
sustained winds are 145 kt with gusts to 175 kt, and the minimum
central pressure is 935 mb. Beryl will continue to move WNW and
across the Caribbean through late Thu, and inland across the
Yucatan Peninsula Thu night, remaining south of the area.
Otherwise, central Atlantic high pressure will extend a ridge
southwestward to N Florida to support gentle to moderate winds and
slight to moderate seas north of 25N, with moderate to fresh
trades and mainly moderate seas south of 25N. Winds and seas will
be locally strong north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola through the
next several days as Beryl moves through the Caribbean. A decaying
cold front may drop south of 31N Tue night through Wed night,
potentially stalling and lingering near 30N through the end of the
week.

$$
Delgado