632
FXUS63 KAPX 180000
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
800 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued threat for more showers and a few thunderstorms
  through tonight.

- Showers linger on Sunday, beautiful summer weather next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 242 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Lobes of vorticity rotating around upper level low pressure
evident on water vapor imagery across northern Michigan will
continue to produce scattered to numerous showers into this
evening. A few embedded thunderstorms remain possible due to a
few hundred J/Kg of skinny cape. Severe storms are not
anticipated but heavy downpours remain possible due to high
precipitable water values (1.5 to 1.75 inches). Activity is then
expected to decrease in coverage with most areas only seeing
isolated showers overnight. Isolated to perhaps scattered
showers linger into Sunday, especially across eastern sections
of the forecast area. Skies are expected to remain mostly cloudy
into Sunday morning with slow clearing from northwest to
southeast during the afternoon. Lows tonight in the muggy low
and mid 60s. Highs Sunday in the low and mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 242 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Beautiful summer weather conditions return this week as
midlevel ridging builds across the Central U.S. Sunny skies with
average temperatures can be expected for the next several days:
Current midlevel troughing digging through the Upper Great
Lakes region will be replaced by longwave upstream ridging,
occupying the the central U.S for the entirety of the long term
forecast period. This pattern supports surface high pressure
along with temperatures around climatological average. A few
height disturbances could produce a few pop-up showers/storms
towards the end of the week due to typical diurnal heating
processes, but rain-free chances for most locations across the
CWA can be expected for next several days. No impactful weather
is expected through the entirety of the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 759 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Scattered showers are expected to linger across northern Michigan
tonight and into Sunday morning. Brief drops in VSBY may be possible
with any heavier showers, but mainly VFR VSBYs are anticipated
through tonight. Widespread MVFR CIGs are expected to spread across
the area over the next several hours, with IFR CIGs also anticipated
for parts of the area overnight. CIGs look to gradually rise through
the morning hours before eventually scattering out to VFR conditions
for most areas by Sunday afternoon.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJS
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...DJC