![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
059 FXUS63 KAPX 161926 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 326 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and a few thunderstorms continue into Saturday night. Locally heavy rain possible. - Pleasant stretch of weather next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 324 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Pattern/synopsis: Stacked low, now over nw WI, will make slow progress toward and across central/northern lower MI thru Saturday. Forecast: Southwest sections finally starting to break out into some peeks of sunshine, though shallow stratocu still lingers. Upstream MlCape values are near or in excess of 1500j/kg in WI, but we`re still just starting to destabilize over here, and will not see instability nearly that high. Perhaps 1000j/kg develop into nw lower MI by early evening. Deeper shear is also unimpressive (less than 25kt); we`re too close to the upper low for much in the way of mid- level flow. Perhaps a stronger/ severe storm with gusty winds could push into nw lower MI thru evening (especially to the sw of TVC). But this is an unimpressive threat, and will continue to /not/ message it too aggressively. Showers/embedded storms will become more widespread again tonight, as falling heights with the upper low approaching more then compensating for loss of surface-based instability. Numerous showers return to nw and n central lower MI this evening, and expand into ne lower MI and parts of eastern upper MI overnight. Cell movement will become slower as wind fields weaken, and locally heavy rain will again emerge as the main threat for overnight. Reasonably widespread convection continues Saturday, with the upper low slowly transiting northern MI. Probably just enough surface heating to contribute a hint of instability by afternoon. Winds fields and shear are negligible, and the skinny MlCape of up to 300j/kg will not be enough for severe. But locally heavy rain will persist with slow-moving cells, especially in northern lower MI. Low temps mid 60s. Max temps low-mid 70s, warmest in the eastern UP. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 324 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: The large area of upper level low pressure centered across northwest Minnesota will drift across northern Michigan during the day Saturday. Moisture/weak lift will linger into Sunday. This is expected to result in mostly cloudy skies and additional showers Saturday night and even Sunday across some areas (mainly along and east of I-75). Drier air then advects into the region Sunday night with increasing ridging in control through much if not all of the work week. This setup should promote nearly ideal conditions with mostly clear skies, low humidity and very comfortable temperatures. No rain will be in the forecast from Monday through Friday (removed any rogue slight chance pops). Highs through the period will slowly warm through the 70s with lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 324 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Some improvements into this evening, then worsening tonight. Low pressure over nw WI will move gradually toward lower MI. Lower cigs will improve some this afternoon and evening, though with sct SHRA/TSRA also returning. Cigs/vsbys lower again overnight, and widespread IFR conditions are expected by Saturday morning. Sporadic SHRA/TSRA will persist thru the forecast. Southerly breezes this afternoon become light tonight. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JZ LONG TERM...AJS AVIATION...JZ