059
FXUS63 KAPX 161926
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
326 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and a few thunderstorms continue into Saturday night.
  Locally heavy rain possible.

- Pleasant stretch of weather next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 324 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Pattern/synopsis: Stacked low, now over nw WI, will make slow
progress toward and across central/northern lower MI thru
Saturday.

Forecast: Southwest sections finally starting to break out into
some peeks of sunshine, though shallow stratocu still lingers.
Upstream MlCape values are near or in excess of 1500j/kg in WI,
but we`re still just starting to destabilize over here, and will
not see instability nearly that high. Perhaps 1000j/kg develop
into nw lower MI by early evening. Deeper shear is also
unimpressive (less than 25kt); we`re too close to the upper low
for much in the way of mid- level flow. Perhaps a stronger/
severe storm with gusty winds could push into nw lower MI thru
evening (especially to the sw of TVC). But this is an
unimpressive threat, and will continue to /not/ message it too
aggressively.

Showers/embedded storms will become more widespread again
tonight, as falling heights with the upper low approaching more
then compensating for loss of surface-based instability.
Numerous showers return to nw and n central lower MI this
evening, and expand into ne lower MI and parts of eastern upper
MI overnight. Cell movement will become slower as wind fields
weaken, and locally heavy rain will again emerge as the main
threat for overnight.

Reasonably widespread convection continues Saturday, with the
upper low slowly transiting northern MI. Probably just enough
surface heating to contribute a hint of instability by
afternoon. Winds fields and shear are negligible, and the
skinny MlCape of up to 300j/kg will not be enough for severe.
But locally heavy rain will persist with slow-moving cells,
especially in northern lower MI.

Low temps mid 60s. Max temps low-mid 70s, warmest in the eastern
UP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 324 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

The large area of upper level low pressure centered across northwest
Minnesota will drift across northern Michigan during the day
Saturday. Moisture/weak lift will linger into Sunday. This is
expected to result in mostly cloudy skies and additional showers
Saturday night and even Sunday across some areas (mainly along and
east of I-75). Drier air then advects into the region Sunday night
with increasing ridging in control through much if not all of the
work week. This setup should promote nearly ideal conditions with
mostly clear skies, low humidity and very comfortable temperatures.
No rain will be in the forecast from Monday through Friday (removed
any rogue slight chance pops). Highs through the period will slowly
warm through the 70s with lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 324 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Some improvements into this evening, then worsening tonight.

Low pressure over nw WI will move gradually toward lower MI.
Lower cigs will improve some this afternoon and evening, though
with sct SHRA/TSRA also returning. Cigs/vsbys lower again
overnight, and widespread IFR conditions are expected by
Saturday morning. Sporadic SHRA/TSRA will persist thru the
forecast.

Southerly breezes this afternoon become light tonight.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...JZ