448
FXUS64 KAMA 040610
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
110 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

As has been the theme for the past few days, precipitation chances
continue both today and tomorrow for the Panhandles. A few storms
may have the potential to be strong to severe, with damaging winds
and large hail the primary hazards. Most areas will remain around
or below average for temperatures on both of these days.

Satellite imagery depicts cloud cover remaining across most of the
Panhandles with the exceptions being the far southeastern TX
Panhandle and much of the west. Cumulus are developing east of the
mountains in NM/CO and a few showers/storms are starting to form
and slowly drift off to the east. With the cloud cover and rain
showers lingering across the Panhandles today, temperatures have
stayed cool for areas along a line roughly from Hereford, to
Amarillo/Dumas, and up through Canadian to the northeastern
Panhandles. Have adjusted high temperatures down and increased
PoPs for areas receiving rain showers. Will need to keep an eye on
the storms moving off of the higher terrain as they move towards
the Panhandles. The storms will be moving into a slightly higher
shear environment as they move over the Southern High Plains this
evening. Cannot rule out a storm or two become severe, but with
temperatures remaining quite cool today, the environment likely
will not be the most favorable today.

For Independence Day, a cold front will propel down the High
Plains and will move over the Panhandles during the daytime hours.
Northerly winds behind the front are expected with some breezy to
gusty winds. This front will also limit daytime heating for the
northern zones, keeping these areas in the 80s whereas the south
should be able to reach at least the mid to upper 90s. Current
expectation is that the front will clear most of, if not all of,
the Panhandles by late afternoon, with the southeast being the
potential area staying ahead of the front. The front tomorrow
should be the focal point for afternoon/evening storms and with
the current forecast having it south of the CWA, storm chances are
very low and should not have much, if any, impact on Independence
Day evening activities. Additional showers and thunderstorms will
be possible Thursday night into Friday morning as an upper level
disturbance moves over the Panhandles.

Muscha

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Showers and thunderstorm chances continue each day from Friday
through Tuesday for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Some of the
storms could be strong to severe on these days. Temperatures are
forecast to be right around average or just below average.

Northwest flow at H500 will prevail each day during the long term
forecast period. For Friday, a trough will will be located across
the north central CONUS with ridging out west. The Panhandles will
still be influenced by the cold front from the day prior and H850
temperatures are forecast to be around 20 Celsius by peak heating
on Friday afternoon. Temperatures are forecast to be in the 80s
across the region with some locations potentially in the upper
70s. Precipitation from the morning should dissipate or move off
to the east before another band moves in from the west during the
evening hours. Model guidance deviates on the location of the
better precipitation bands, but the highest chances for
precipitation will be across the central and west through Saturday
morning.

Not much change is currently expected Saturday through the middle
of next week. The northwest flow aloft will continue to allow
shortwaves to move across the region and with moisture continuing
to be in place, showers and storms should be able to develop
across portions of the area each day. Additionally, this flow will
not be the most conducive for temperatures to reach the triple
digit mark, so highs in the 80s and 90s are expected this weekend
through early next week.

Muscha

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1258 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

For the 06Z TAFs, the latest round of showers and thunderstorms
is moving east of the terminal sites and have opted not to include
mention. Based on latest numerical weather model guidance, it
appears the TAF sites will remain dry through Independence Day and
this has been reflected in the latest forecast. A cold front will
track across the region this morning with gusty north winds in its
wake before wind speeds diminish by around late afternoon

02

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                65  84  62  90 /  50  30  30  30
Beaver OK                  61  86  63  90 /  20  10  10  20
Boise City OK              57  82  59  88 /  30  20  30  30
Borger TX                  66  89  65  95 /  40  30  30  30
Boys Ranch TX              64  85  63  92 /  50  30  40  30
Canyon TX                  64  82  61  89 /  50  40  40  30
Clarendon TX               66  83  64  89 /  40  30  30  30
Dalhart TX                 59  82  59  91 /  40  20  40  20
Guymon OK                  60  84  60  90 /  30  20  30  30
Hereford TX                65  84  63  91 /  50  30  40  30
Lipscomb TX                63  86  63  91 /  30  10  20  20
Pampa TX                   65  84  62  90 /  40  30  20  30
Shamrock TX                67  87  64  91 /  40  30  20  30
Wellington TX              68  88  64  92 /  40  40  20  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...02