123
FXUS64 KAMA 021053 AAA
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
553 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

A cold front was near the Arkansas River Valley early this morning.
This front is expected to slip south across the Oklahoma Panhandle
and northern Texas Panhandle late this morning into the afternoon.
This front is expected to the focus for shower and thunderstorm
development.  Showers and thunderstorms will also be possible
outside of the frontal zone as a southwest flow aloft continues to
pump subtropical moisture over the Panhandles. There is a batch of
showers pushing northeast from southern New Mexico early this
morning.  Would not surprised to see a shower or thunderstorm
somewhere in our area from now through this evening.  The best
chance of severe thunderstorms looks to be in association with the
frontal boundary as it will be closer to the better instability and
shear.  However, an isolated severe wind gust will be possible just
about anywhere, especially given the hot temperatures today that
will help to produce inverted "V" soundings.  Will keep the heat
advisory going for Palo Duro Canyon and the far southeast Texas
Panhandle for today. However, we may have a tough time reaching
criteria if we keep debris clouds around.

The front is expected to remain in our area for Wednesday and it
will be a focus for shower and thunderstorm development once again.
Highs are not expected to quite as warm on Wednesday given the
slightly cooler air behind the front and the added cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

A bit of uncertainty still revolves around the Fourth of July
holiday as many models see another upper-level trough push another
frontal boundary across the Panhandles that day. The timing of
this front as well as were it stalls could result in heavy changes
to both the possible activity and temperatures for the holiday. At
this time, most model are settling for a late decent of the
frontal boundary which will allow for temperatures to reach into
the 90s and triple digits down in the southern portions of the
Panhandles. This also will work to our benefit as well, as it will
also delay storm development to later that night with most models
not seeing decent chances (40 to 50%) for showers till after
midnight. However, should the front arrive sooner than expected
activity may be closer to the late evening to night hours.
Secondary to this will also be the final placement of the front
with latest trends seeing it settle just to our south around the
Lubbock area. Unfortunately if this placement does come to pass,
than our chances of showers will diminish for both Friday and
Saturday afternoon with best odds now around 20 to 25%. Chances do
look spread across the Panhandles Sunday and Monday as most model
are in agreement for a secondary trough and front to follow.
Expect this trough to exit Monday night with chances shifting more
eastward through out the day. As for next Tuesday and the mid-
week, there is still a bit of uncertainty, but current model runs
do favor northwesterly flow that could open us up to active
weather each afternoon. Otherwise, look for temperatures to fall
briefly behind each passing front with temperatures dropping into
the 80s Friday then rising back into the 90s by Sunday only to
drop again Monday.

Scoleri

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 549 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Southwest winds will pick up into the 15 to 20 knot range with
higher gusts by mid morning. A cold front will move through the
GUY TAF site in the early afternoon and then through the DHT TAF
site this evening. The front may back into AMA late in this
forecast. Thunderstorms are possible with the front at GUY and DHT
late this afternoon or evening. Have not put TSRA at AMA as storms
are expected to remain fairly isolated there. Skies are expected
to remain VFR outside of thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX               101  72  92  71 /  30  60  30  20
Beaver OK                  99  67  86  67 /  30  70  40  20
Boise City OK              92  63  85  60 /  40  50  40  10
Borger TX                 105  73  94  72 /  40  60  30  20
Boys Ranch TX             101  70  91  69 /  30  60  30  20
Canyon TX                  99  71  91  69 /  30  50  30  20
Clarendon TX              103  73  96  74 /  30  40  20  20
Dalhart TX                 97  66  89  62 /  30  50  30  20
Guymon OK                  96  66  87  64 /  30  60  30  20
Hereford TX               101  71  93  70 /  30  50  30  20
Lipscomb TX               102  70  87  71 /  40  70  30  20
Pampa TX                  101  71  91  70 /  40  60  30  20
Shamrock TX               102  73  99  75 /  10  30  20  10
Wellington TX             105  75 101  77 /  10  30  20  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ018>020-317.

OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...15