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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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207 FXUS64 KAMA 041926 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 226 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Upper level troughing continues across the region in the short term period. A couple of short wave perturbations are expected to traverse across the High Plains and allow showers and thunderstorms to form tonight and tomorrow. Today, near and below average highs are forecast for many places across the combined Panhandles thanks to the quicker progression of the cold front today. Breezy, northerly winds should remain in place through the rest of the day. A slight chance for isolated thunderstorms are possible in Collingsworth County this evening if the front hangs back in that area, otherwise convection behind the boundary should not commence until the overnight period. Midnight onward, a new band of showers and thunderstorms should generate across the combined Panhandles, generally favoring the central and northern Texas Panhandle. Storms should be scattered and elevated in nature. There is a very small chance that a few of them could be strong to severe, given the favorable shear and lapse rates aloft. However, effective CAPE is expected to be on the lower end and 500 mb temperatures close to -8 degrees Celsius will also disallow for large hail production. If storms can overcome some lingering CIN and develop robust updrafts, then perhaps severe hail and damaging winds could occur. By Friday morning, showers may still be active in the Texas Panhandle. They should exit the region to the east by the afternoon. Later in the evening, an additional wave of thunderstorms may move in from New Mexico. Their progression in the area should be limited to the western Panhandles until Saturday morning when they finally advance across the rest of the CWA. Due to the prolonged cloud coverage and multiple bands of showers, day time highs should only be in the 70`s and 80`s tomorrow. Rangel && .LONG TERM ... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Starting the coming weekend into early next week, our rain chances continue. Latest 04/12Z model and numerical guidance shows a H500 high build across the Sierra Nevada range with H500 NNW flow into the Panhandles. This will result in daily diurnal convection moving SSE from the CO/NM high terrain into portions of the Panhandles each day. Some storms could be strong to severe with strong wind gusts and locally heavy rain being the main threats. Towards the end of the forecast period, the aforementioned H500 high pressure will shift towards the northern Rockies/Black Hills. With resultant anemic easterly and northeasterly H500 flow into the Panhandles, the axis of better moisture transport and overall lift should stay north of the Panhandles, bringing dry conditions back to the Panhandles. Temperatures will be slightly below average starting this weekend into early next week before moderating to near average by the end of the forecast period. Meccariello && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 TAFs are VFR for the onset of the period. Later tonight, likely after the midnight hour, showers and thunderstorms may impact all TAF sites and continue through the morning hours. PROB30 groups have been introduced for all sites, with varying times of their arrival. Low clouds may impact AMA around 09Z alongside the potential precipitation. MVFR conditions are progged to last until the end of the period at this time. Breezy, northerly winds continue at all terminals through the afternoon and evening today, while slowly veering northeast. Eventually, those conditions will die down by the night time hours and winds should remain light through the rest of the period. Rangel && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 62 81 62 88 / 50 50 30 30 Beaver OK 62 84 60 89 / 30 20 10 20 Boise City OK 57 79 57 87 / 50 20 30 30 Borger TX 65 87 63 93 / 50 50 30 30 Boys Ranch TX 62 83 61 90 / 50 50 40 30 Canyon TX 60 79 60 87 / 50 50 40 30 Clarendon TX 64 81 63 86 / 50 50 20 30 Dalhart TX 58 80 57 89 / 50 40 40 30 Guymon OK 59 82 58 88 / 50 50 30 30 Hereford TX 63 80 61 89 / 50 50 40 30 Lipscomb TX 63 84 61 89 / 40 40 10 20 Pampa TX 62 82 61 87 / 50 50 20 30 Shamrock TX 66 85 63 89 / 50 50 10 20 Wellington TX 66 86 63 89 / 40 50 20 20 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....29 AVIATION...55