775
FXUS61 KALY 140814
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
414 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms can be
anticipated today and tomorrow, especially for higher terrain areas
courtesy of an upper-level disturbance backing towards the New
England Coast from the Canadian Maritimes. While Friday will feature
dry conditions, humidity levels increase ahead of a frontal system
that will bring unsettled conditions throughout the weekend and
possibly into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Primarily dry conditions exist throughout eastern New York and
western New England thus far this morning outside of a few
isolated showers that have tracked into the Southwest
Adirondacks in association with weak, shortwave troughing
located overhead. High pressure continues to build eastward this
morning, with a 1020 mb high now extending into western New
York from the Great Lakes and Upper-Midwest. As such, outside of
the aforementioned light showers, skies remain clear with some
sheltered areas seeing patchy fog courtesy of radiational
cooling.

Throughout the day today, an upper-level disturbance associated
with the aforementioned trough will gradually begin to
retrograde south and west toward the Canadian Maritimes.
Northwest flow about the rear flank of the trough will
contribute upslope enhancement needed to develop isolated to
scattered showers primarily in the higher terrain regions of the
Southwest Adirondacks, Eastern Catskills, Southern Greens and
Berkshires this afternoon. That said, a few showers also cannot
be ruled out in the Mohawk and Hudson Valley. Some isolated to
scattered thunderstorms are also possible courtesy of moderate
instability (~1000 to 1500 J/kg), but an overall lack of shear
(< 25 kt) and forcing and marginal dewpoints (upper 50s to low
60s) will keep convection disorganized and sub- severe. That
said, a cool pool extending westward into the area will aid in
the steepening of low and mid-level lapse rates a bit, so some
gusty winds and small hail are possible with thunderstorms that
develop.

High temperatures today will be a few degrees warmer than the
last couple of days with mid/upper 70s to low 80s expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Showers and thunderstorms should die out quickly upon the loss
of daytime heating this evening, yielding another dry night
tonight. Temperatures will drop to the mid/upper 50s to low 60s
across the area with some patchy fog once again possible for
sheltered areas as skies are expected to clear thanks to
subsidence from the surface high.

Thursday`s conditions will be quite similar to today, though the
farther retrograde of the aforementioned disturbance could lead
to a slightly larger spatial coverage of showers and non-severe
thunderstorms in the afternoon. Much like today, thunderstorms
Thursday could lead to some gustier winds and small hail given
the consistency in steeper, low to mid-level lapse rates but
given the overall lack of shear and forcing, convection will
remain discrete. High temperatures Thursday will be a few
degrees higher than today with mid/upper 70s at higher terrain
to low to mid 80s in valley areas.

Loss of daytime heating in addition to the weakening of the
shortwave as an upper-level ridge builds east will allow
convection to dissipate Thursday evening such that another dry
night can be expected overnight. Low temperatures will fall to
the mid/upper 50s to low 60s.

Friday, though dry, will feature increasing cloud cover and
increased humidity ahead of an incoming frontal system that will
make for an unsettled weekend. With high temperatures rising
primarily to the upper 70s to mid 80s and dewpoints in the mid
to upper 60s (upper 50s to low 60s at higher terrain),
conditions will feel a little on the uncomfortable side
especially in comparison to recent days. Chances for rain then
increase overnight Friday as an upper-level trough encroaches
in association with the aforementioned frontal system. Low
temperatures Friday night will fall only to the 60s with
pockets of upper 50s above 1500 ft courtesy of ample cloud
cover.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Unsettled weather is expected for the upcoming weekend into early
next week, as an upper level trough and frontal system approaching
from the Great Lakes slowly moves east across the region. Increasing
southerly flow (850mb v-comp wind anomalies of +2 to +3 STDEV) ahead
of the trough will transport anomalous moisture (PWAT anomalies
increase to +1 to +2 STDEV) northward starting on Sat ahead of the
system`s warm front. Will mention 60-70% PoPs for showers/T-storms
during the afternoon and evening. It will start to become more humid
as well.

Our area may not get into a true warm sector, as the system`s
occluded front/triple point looks to gradually push eastward Sun
into Sun night, with the upper level trough axis remaining just to
the west. So will mention 50-70% of showers with a continued chance
of thunder. Locally heavy rainfall may occur, especially within any
persistent convective downpours. Temperatures expected to near to
slightly below normal for highs, but above normal for lows due to
cloud/showers around.

The main upper level trough axis looks move eastward across our area
on Mon, but guidance continues to indicate slow progress. Will
mention 50-70% PoPs during diurnally favored afternoon/evening
hours. The upper trough may finally move east of the area, but it
could take through Tue, so will need to linger 30-50% PoPs. Near
normal highs and above normal lows look to continue Mon into
Tue.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06z Thursday...Mainly clear skies and light winds will lead
to occasional radiation fog development, especially at typical sites
KGFL/KPSF through the early morning hours. Will mention prevailing
MVFR conditions with TEMPO for IFR at these two sites. There could
be some light fog/mist at KPOU, so will mention a TEMPO for MVFR
vsby there between 08z-11z. Fog may develop along the Mohawk/Hudson
Rivers and may get close to KALB. Will mention BCFG with prevailing
VFR since confidence is low in fog reaching the terminal.

Any fog should dissipate by 11z-12z, with VFR conditions returning.
SCT-BKN mid level cigs are expected to develop by afternoon. A weak
disturbance moving through during peak diurnal heating hours may
result in isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA. Best chances look to be
at the KALB/KGFL terminals. Will mention PROB30 from 18z-00z at
these sites. Potential looks too low to mention in TAFs at
KPOU/KPSF. Any SHRA/TSRA should diminish shortly after dark, with
skies becoming mainly clear. Some fog may develop again, but mainly
after 06z Thursday.

Winds will be variable around 3 kt or less, becoming north-northwest
around 3-7 kt by late this morning.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gant
NEAR TERM...Gant
SHORT TERM...Gant
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV