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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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546 FXUS61 KALY 131845 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 245 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Beautiful weather today with seasonable temperatures before chances for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms increase tomorrow and Thursday, especially in the higher terrain, thanks to a disturbance in the Canadian Maritimes. Humidity levels turn more uncomfortable Friday into the weekend as a disturbance from the Great Lakes slowly pushes eastward. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase Saturday and Sunday as the occluded boundary approaches. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Beautiful August day continues across the Northeast as a 1020hPa anticyclone centered over the Great Lakes builds eastward. Morning sun will continue to mix with some fair weather cumulus clouds as areas reach their respective convective temperature. 12 UTC ALY sounding shows low PWATs under 1 inch once again thanks to northerly flow through the column as we remain on the east side of the incoming high. Thus, humidity levels will once again be low/comfortable today. Forecast soundings support deep boundary layer mixing extending up to and even above 5kft this afternoon and with 850hPa isotherms ranging from +11C to +13C, high temperatures this afternoon should easily reach the mid to upper 70s with even around 80 in the valley. Cumulus clouds dissipate late this afternoon once we cool below the convective temperature. Sfc high pressure building eastward will support ideal radiational cooling tonight thanks to clear skies, light winds, and low humidity. Another great night to open up the windows as temperatures cool into the mid to upper 50s across eastern NY and western New England with even mid to upper 40s in the southern Adirondacks, southern Greens, and higher peaks of the eastern Catskills. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... An upper level disturbance from the Canadian Maritimes will shift into the Gulf of Maine Wednesday into Thursday as a subtle backdoor front gradually progresses south and westward through northern New England. Meanwhile, upper level ridging from the Great Lakes and sfc high pressure will be slowly building into the Northeast. Such a synoptic set-up will maintain northwest flow over the region and keep dew points comfortable in the upper 50s to around 60 with temperatures trending a bit warmer rising into upper 70s to low 80s but remaining seasonable. As the cold pool from the disturbance in the Canadian Maritimes shifts south and westward, lapse rates will steepen over much of eastern NY and western New England both days ranging 5.5C/km to 6C/km. After morning fog burns off, morning insolation will contribute to increased surface based instability but marginal dew points will keep CAPE values in check only rising to 500 - 1000J/kg. Deep layer shear values will also be minimal both days only reaching 15 - 25kts. Thus, expecting cumulus clouds to develop once we reach the convective temperature mid to late morning with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing early to mid afternoon, initially in the southern Adirondacks and southern Greens before northerly flow directs showers/storms southward. Any shower/storm should be short-lived but some areas could see more than one brief shower/storm, especially in the Mohawk Valley and Upper Hudson Valley as shower/storms track southward out of the Adirondacks. While storms will likely not turn severe given weak shear/instability, the cold pool aloft (500hPa isotherms cooling to -13C to -14C) will keep wet- bulb zero heights near or slightly below 10kft so any updrafts that can grow tall enough may be able to support small hail. Isolated to scattered showers/storms diminish once we loss peak heating late afternoon into the evening with clouds clearing and wind becoming light/variable. With dew points remaining near 60 and radiational cooling setting in, fog looks to develop both nights, especially in valley areas and where rain falls during the day. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The period starts out on Fri with surface high pressure shifting east off the New England coast, with an upper level ridge axis forecast to be in place through the day. This should result in dry conditions and near normal temperatures across our area. The pattern then becomes unsettled during the upcoming weekend, as an upper level trough approaching from the Great Lakes slowly moves east across the region. Low level southerly flow will increase ahead of the trough, which will transport anomalous moisture (PWAT anomalies increase to +1 to +2 STDEV) northward. Along with forcing from the upper trough, a frontal system/triple point at the surface looks to gradually push eastward through Sun. So will mention 50-70% PoPs Sat through Sun night, with the highest values during the diurnally favored times for convection (afternoon/evening). Locally heavy rainfall may occur, especially within any persistent convective showers/T-storms. Temperatures look near normal for highs, but above normal for lows due to mostly cloudy and humid conditions at night. The main upper level trough axis may still be over or even west of our area on Mon, so will linger mention 30-60% PoPs. There will be chances for thunder again during the afternoon/evening hours. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Flying conditions are currently VFR across the region with just some diurnal cumulus and some passing thin high cirrus clouds. Through the rest of the day, flying conditions will be VFR with light north to northwest winds. Skies will clear out for tonight with very light or calm winds. This could allow for some radiational fog to develop for the late night hours at KGFL and KPSF, but the other sites should have a large enough T/TD spread to prevent any fog from developing. On Wednesday, any early morning fog or mist will dissipate shortly after daybreak. This will allow for another day of VFR conditions with just few-sct clouds for the morning and early afternoon hours around 4-6 kft. North to northwest winds on Wednesday will be around 5 kts for all sites. A stray shower or t-storm cannot be ruled out for the mid afternoon into early evening hours, mainly for the northern sites. Outlook... Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. Patchy FG. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Speciale NEAR TERM...Speciale SHORT TERM...Speciale LONG TERM...JPV AVIATION...Frugis