035
FXUS61 KALY 051101
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
701 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
With a warm and humid air mass in place and a nearby
frontal boundary around, some showers and thunderstorms are possible
for today.  There will be a continued threat for showers and
thunderstorms tonight into Saturday as a cold front moves across the
region, with hot and muggy conditions remaining in place.  Rain-free
weather will return for Sunday into Monday, although temperatures
will continue to be above normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 629 AM EDT...Surface boundary remains stalled over the
region this morning. Areas south of the front are seeing a light
southerly flow, while northern areas are fairly calm. All areas
are fairly warm and muggy to start the day, with dewpoints
around 70 F. Aloft, the flow is out of the west-southwest, with
an upper level disturbance well upstream of the area over the
Midwest. The weak surface front will remain stalled over the
area through much of the day today, but may start to slowly lift
northward as a warm front towards the early evening hours.

IR satellite imagery shows fairly widespread clouds in place,
mostly mid level clouds. MRMS shows some spotty showers are
ongoing, especially for the Adirondacks and western New
England. They showers should be pushing off to the east, so most
areas will be starting the day rain-free, although it will be
muggy with some patchy fog and a partly to mostly cloudy sky.

While the morning will start off fairly dry, there will be a
threat for some showers and thunderstorms by afternoon,
especially for southern areas. CAMs suggest that a cluster of
showers and thunderstorms (currently over the Upper Ohio Valley)
may spread towards southern areas by afternoon, although models
differ on the exact placement and strength of this activity. If
enough breaks of sun occur, there could be enough instability
around (about 1000 J/kg) to allow for a locally strong storm,
although storms will be fairly brief due to poor lapse rates
aloft. There will be some shear aloft as well, although it`s
fairly top-heavy and will depend on if a storm can get tall
enough. Can`t totally rule out a rogue strong wind gust today
with a wet microburst when a storm collapses, but main threat
may wind up being heavy downpours, as high PWATs/dewpoints could
lead to high rainfall rates and some localized flooding of
urban or poor drainage. This will be especially true if any
location sees more than one shower or storm.

While there will be a lot of clouds to start the day, there
should be enough breaks to allow for partly sunny skies by the
mid to late morning and into the afternoon hours. This will
allow for temps to reach well into the 80s for most valley
areas. Along with dewpoints in the 70s, this will make for heat
index values into the low 90s. Values should be just shy of
advisory criteria, but it will be close and anyone spending time
outdoors should use caution to avoid heat related illnesses.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As the stalled frontal boundary lifts northward for tonight,
some additional showers and storms will be possible. CAMs show a
variety of different solutions for tonight as well, although
western and southern areas may have the highest coverage. With
the nocturnal timing, surface inversion should help prevent the
threat for any strong winds, but heavy downpours will continue
to be a threat. Lows will remain mild and muggy near 70 with
plenty of clouds around.

On Saturday, there may be some morning convection that is
moving west to east to start the day after daybreak, but skies
should clear out enough for a partly sunny sky by the mid to
late morning hours. With another warm and very humid day
(dewpoints into the mid 70s), it will be yet another day where
heat index values may be close to advisory criteria in valley
areas. It will probably be just short, but definitely high
enough where caution should be encouraged to all spending a lot
of time outdoors.

In addition, there will be a threat for some additional shower
and t-storms in the afternoon or evening ahead of the advancing
weak surface cold front, although coverage looks fairly low,
and the highest threat may be for eastern areas (Taconics into
western New England). As with Friday, the main threat looks to
be heavy downpours, although a rogue severe storm can`t be
totally ruled out, as the upper level shortwave lifts from the
upper Great Lakes and into southern Canada, so there may be some
decent dynamics not too far from the area. The threat for
precip will be winding down on Sat night as the surface cold
front pushes eastward. Lows will fall into the 60s, although it
will still be fairly humid with a partly cloudy sky.

On Sunday, it still looks fairly warm, despite being behind the
front. Dewpoints look a tad lower than Saturday, but still
pretty sticky with values well into the 60s to near near 70. The
main difference compared to Saturday will be that no precip is
expected and skies will feature more sun, with a mostly sunny
sky. Highs should reach well into the 80s once again, with a few
spots topping out around 90. Heat index values may reach into
lower 90s again for some areas. It will be dry on Sunday night
with a mostly clear sky. This may allow for lows to fall a
little more than the last few nights (especially in the
Adirondacks), with lows ranging from the upper 50s in northern
areas to the upper 60s in the Capital Region.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The extended forecast period begins Monday with dry conditions
anticipated across eastern New York and western New England courtesy
of upper-level ridging aloft accompanying high pressure at the
surface. It will, however, be another hot day with highs looking to
reach the upper 70s/mid 80s at higher elevations and upper 80s to
low 90s in large valley areas. Dewpoints will be slightly elevated,
especially in the Hudson Valley where mid to upper 60s appear
likely, which could make conditions fair on the uncomfortable side.
However, at this time, heat indices look to remain below advisory
criteria in the low 90s.

Monday night into Tuesday, the upper ridging begins to weaken as an
upper-level disturbance and associated frontal system strengthens
upstream and slides eastward. Simultaneously, the surface
anticyclone shifts south and east away from the region to allow a
surface trough to build in in its wake. Some light, scattered
showers are possible with this initial disturbance mainly for
upslope areas (Eastern Catskills and Western Adirondacks) west of
the Hudson on Tuesday morning. However, as the axis of the upper
trough digs further into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes regions
throughout the day and the surface trough strengthens ahead of the
primary low and attendant cold front, showers and embedded rumbles
of thunder will become more widespread. There still remains some
uncertainty regarding timing, but general consensus indicates a
greater spatial coverage by Tuesday afternoon/evening.

Showers look to continue Tuesday night into Wednesday morning,
gradually becoming less widespread as the upper trough weakens and
the cold front tracks through by Wednesday afternoon. Some embedded
rumbles of thunder will remain possible Tuesday night, but with the
loss of daytime heating and models indicating limited instability,
they may be few and far between. Some additional showers and rumbles
of thunder will be possible Wednesday night into Thursday morning as
we remain under cyclonic flow. However, tranquil weather will return
for most Thursday afternoon into Thursday night as dry air is
ushered in behind the departing system.

High temperatures Tuesday will be similar to Monday with upper 70s
to mid 80s at higher elevations and upper 80s with pockets of near
90 elsewhere. Wednesday and Thursday will then be cooler with
mid/upper 70s to low 80s above 1000 ft and mid and pockets of upper
80s in the valleys. Low temperatures Monday night and Tuesday night
will range primarily in the 60s with pockets of near 70 in the
Hudson Valley. Wednesday night and Thursday night will see
temperatures fall to the upper 50s to mid/upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12z Saturday...Flying conditions vary among the
terminals this morning with some mist/fog having developed
courtesy of some breaks in cloud coverage across the area. This
should burn off within the hour such that all terminals will
return to VFR conditions. Preferred flying conditions will then
prevail into this afternoon before some scattered showers and
thunderstorms look to disrupt the tranquility. While thunder
could be kept out of KGFL and KALB boundaries, thunderstorms are
more likely at KPOU and KPSF this afternoon into early this
evening. Therefore, TEMPO groups and PROB30s were added to the
12z TAFs to account for these conditions. While thunderstorms
and heavier showers could be capable of worsening conditions to
IFR thresholds, only included MVFR for the time being due to
lower confidence in this element of the forecast. Will continue
to monitor guidance and make adjustments with future updates
where necessary. VFR conditions should be returned upon the
conclusion of convective activity but areas that receive rain
could have some MVFR to IFR fog develop tonight.

Winds throughout the period will prevail primarily out of the
south to southwest at sustained speeds of 3-6 kt.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Gant
AVIATION...Gant