![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
909 FXUS61 KALY 020517 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 117 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will bring warm and dry weather through Wednesday with comfortable humidity levels. A weak cold front will bring an increase in humidity along with some showers and possible thunderstorms Wednesday night into Independence Day. Another low pressure system will bring additional showers and thunderstorms Friday into Saturday with very warm and humid conditions continuing. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will build overhead through the day resulting in mostly clear and dry weather along with comfortable humidity levels. After a cool start with many areas starting out in the mid-40s to mid-50s, 850 hPa temperatures reaching around +13C this afternoon will result in highs reaching the 70s across the higher elevations and lower to mid-80s in the valleys, right around seasonable levels. A lack of a pressure gradient will result in light and variable winds throughout the day. The high will push to our east over New England Tuesday night. A warm front approaching from the Great Lakes will allow for some passing high clouds through the night. Despite these high clouds, sufficient radiational cooling conditions should allow temperatures to fall back to the 50s to around 60 but should generally prevent any fog formation. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Wednesday and Wednesday night...Wednesday looks dry as well with high pressure to the southeast and the upper ridge axis moving overhead. Highs will be a couple to a few degrees warmer than on Tuesday despite the fact that there will be a few more clouds around. Wednesday night, a warm front will approach from the west, bringing chances for showers and a few thunderstorms to the region after midnight, mainly north and west of the Capital District. Any thunderstorms should remain elevated so severe weather does not look to be a concern for this timeframe. Winds will pick up Wednesday into Wednesday night, and there will be more clouds around, so overnight lows will be warmer with 60s for most locations and a few upper 50s for the outlying high- terrain areas. Thursday, a surface low tracks well to our north with the trailing cold front tracking through our region from west to east. With our area in the warm sector, it will be warmer and more humid across the region. Highs will be mainly in the 70s for the terrain with 80s for the valleys. Despite some valley areas seeing temperatures approach 90, it looks like we should fall short of heat advisory criteria (95F). However, there will be some isolated showers and thunderstorms with and ahead of the cold front Thursday afternoon, especially along and south of I-90. Forcing for ascent looks to be relatively weak, however, so overall coverage of storms does not look very impressive. Nevertheless, people with outdoor plans for Independence Day should keep an eye to the sky. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Thursday night and Friday...The cold frontal boundary looks to wash out and stall south of our region before lifting back north as a warm front Friday afternoon or night. Due to the more diffuse nature of the front, there are some disagreements from the different sources of guidance as to its exact placement and how quickly it lifts back north. With the front nearby, there will be plenty of clouds around and we will keep slight chance PoPs in the forecast south of I-90 closer to the front for Thursday night and Friday. Thursday night will be warm and muggy with lows mainly in the 60s, with some high-terrain areas again dipping into the upper 50s. Friday will feature highs well into the 80s for valley areas once again, although dew points should be a few degrees lower than on Thursday. Friday night through the weekend...The warm front will lift northwards across our region Friday night as an upper low and associated surface cyclone track into the Great Lakes region. This will result in increased chances for showers and a few thunderstorms Friday night possibly into early Saturday morning. Saturday, we are in the warm sector. It will remain hot and the humidity will be noticeably higher. Chances for showers and storms increase again Saturday afternoon as the system`s cold front slowly approaches from the west. The upper low looks to be sheared out as it tracks into southern Canada Saturday and Sunday, with the surface low weakening as well. This may allow the front to stall near our region for the second half of the weekend. Therefore, will maintain slight chance PoPs Sunday, although storms look to be less widespread than on Saturday. High pressure building in towards the end of the long term period will result in a drying trend, although temperatures remain warm Sunday and Monday with highs well into the 80s to around 90 for valley areas. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure is allowing for clear skies over the region, with light to calm winds. Through the rest of the overnight hours, skies will remain clear for all sites. This should result in VFR conditions for most of the time. With a low t/td spread and good radiation cooling, some radiational fog cannot be totally ruled out at KGFL, but it would only be for a brief period right around sunrise. Will include a TEMPO there for two hours around 08z to 10z to account for this, but the other sites should stay VFR with no fog. During the day on Tuesday, flying conditions will be VFR for all sites. Skies will remain clear for much of the day, although some thin cirrus may start to move in by Tuesday evening. Calm winds in the morning will gradually become south to southeast for all sites at 5 kts or less by late in the day. Winds will remain light or calm into Tuesday night with VFR conditions. Outlook... Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Independence Day: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Rathbun NEAR TERM...Rathbun SHORT TERM...Main LONG TERM...Main AVIATION...Frugis