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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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162 FXUS61 KALY 031431 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1031 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure positioned to our east will bring another warm and dry day with comfortable humidity levels. A weak cold front will cross the region tonight through Independence Day with an increase in humidity along with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. An area of low pressure tracking across the Great Lakes will keep warm and humid conditions across the region Friday into the weekend with additional chances for showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... .UPDATE...As of 0930 AM EDT, diffuse clouds associated with the warm front lifting across the region have begun to break up, leaving partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies across the region. Surface dewpoints have increased slightly compared to yesterday, reaching the mid to upper 50s for most and around 60 degrees along the Mohawk and Hudson Valleys. With afternoon highs expected in the mid 80s at low elevations, heat indices should remain below hazardous thresholds. Forecast therefore remains on track; see previous discussion below... .PREV DISCUSSION [0620 AM EDT]...High pressure has shifted to the east as high clouds spread across the region ahead of an approaching warm front. These clouds have resulted in a variation in surface temperatures across the region based on their scattered/broken nature. Most areas will start the day in the 50s to lower 60s. Any fog that does develop by daybreak looks to be fairly isolated. The warm front will lift northward across our area today, but the surface high off to our east combined with upper level ridging overhead will maintain warm and dry weather with humidity levels remaining low. Highs will be similar to Tuesday except perhaps a degree or two warmer with low to mid-80s in the valleys and upper 70s to around 80 in the higher elevations, still right around climatological normals for early July. A southerly breeze will pick up by the afternoon hours with a few gusts 20 to 30 mph expected. A prefrontal trough and weak cold front will begin to cross the state tonight. Some showers and embedded thunderstorms will approach western areas around midnight and track farther eastward toward daybreak. Instability will be fairly low with MUCAPE values generally less than 100 J/kg. With the main forcing remaining well to the north and west, this activity should decrease in intensity and coverage with eastward extend. As a result, only looking at isolated to scattered showers with perhaps a rumble of thunder reaching the Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley. The extra clouds and light southerly wind will keep temperatures mainly in the 60s Wednesday night. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The cold front will continue to push eastward across the region on Independence Day. A shower or two may linger into the morning hours. Instability redevelops ahead of the front with the potential for SBCAPE values to reach around 500 J/kg or greater along with 30 to 40 kt of 0-6km shear. The presence of an upper- level shortwave within the vicinity of the front will aid in the development of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon and early evening hours. Areas near or to the south of Albany will be most favored for this activity based on the expected location/orientation of the front. Less activity is expected farther north. While a stronger storm cannot be ruled out, severe weather is generally not expected at this time. However, precipitable water values above 1.50 inches could result in some locally heavy downpours in any thunderstorm. Otherwise, it will become more humid with highs in the 80s in the valleys and upper 70s to lower 80s across the higher elevations. The front will drop near or just to the south of our area Thursday night with showers and thunderstorms tapering off except perhaps across far southern areas. Muggy conditions continue with lows falling back into the 60s to lower 70s. The front will gradually lift back northward as a warm front Friday into Friday night as a low pressure system tracks northeastward across the Great Lakes region. Additional upper-level shortwave energy will result in additional showers and thunderstorms, especially late in the day Friday into Friday night. Highs Friday look to reach the mid to upper 80s in the valleys and the upper 70s to lower 80s across the higher elevations. Lows Friday night will fall back into the 60s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... An upper level disturbance will be moving from the northern Great Lakes across Ontario and Quebec on Saturday. At the surface, a frontal boundary will be approaching our area from the west. Our region should be within the storm`s warm sector, allowing for a warm and humid air mass to be in place. Models suggest sufficient instability will be in place to allow for a decent coverage of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, especially for the afternoon hours and for areas closer to the upper level forcing (areas north of west of the Capital Region). Will go with likely POPs over much of the area on Saturday, although it won`t be a wash out by any means and some areas could stay dry. Dewpoints look rather muggy in the 70s. With the warm/humid air mass and nearby upper level dynamics, there could be some stronger storms around, although the coverage of strong storms is still in question. Although clouds may limit some of the heating, most areas should reach well into the 80s on Saturday. Behind the surface front, temps only cool slightly, and temps aloft should recover rather quickly. While Sunday looks rain- free for most of the area, it still be warm with highs and in the 80s and dewpoints (while lower than Saturday) will still be muggy in the mid to upper 60s. A stray shower is possible for northern areas, but Sunday definitely looks like the more rain- free day of the weekend. High pressure should allow for another rain-free day on Monday as well. Temps still look above normal with highs well into the 80s and muggy dewpoints in the 60s. The next disturbance looks to arrive by Tuesday, with another round of diurnally- forced convection in the afternoon and evening hours. It will continue to be rather warm and sticky with above normal temps in the mid to upper 80s. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through the day today, flying conditions will be VFR with no precip. A batch of mid and high level clouds will pass over the area this morning, resulting in bkn cigs around 15-20 kft. Calm winds early this morning will become southerly and increase to around 10 kts by the late morning for all sites. A few higher gusts are possible at times as well. There may be some more breaks in the clouds by this afternoon with continued VFR conditions and some diurnal cu will develop in the afternoon as well. As the next frontal system approaches, mid level clouds will lower and thicken this evening. While the first part of tonight should be dry, a stray shower can`t be ruled out by the second half of the overnight. Will just mention a VCSH for now since coverage is still looking fairly isolated to scattered with bkn cigs around 3500-7000 ft expected by later in the overnight hours. Winds will decrease somewhat tonight, but will still be 5 to 10 kts for all sites. Outlook... Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA. Saturday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Rathbun NEAR TERM...Picard/Rathbun SHORT TERM...Rathbun LONG TERM...Frugis AVIATION...Frugis