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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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814 FXUS61 KAKQ 050106 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 906 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure off the coast gradually settles south into the western Atlantic through late this week. Heat and humidity build over the region today through early next week. Daily chances of mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms also return today into the upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... As of 850 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Showers will diminish across the region this evening. An upper ridge extends from the Gulf Coast to the Carolinas this evening, with a trough across the Upper Midwest. At the surface, high pressure is centered off the Southeast Coast, with a dampening lee trough over the Piedmont. Showers and storms have cooled temps into the 70s for most of the area with a few low 80s still noted across NE NC where showers have been absent. Expect lingering showers to continue near the Chesapeake Bay and across the Piedmont over the next hour or two but coverage and intensity will continue to diminish. Will be dry area-wide after midnight with partly cloudy skies and lows in the lower to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 410 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - A Heat Advisory is in effect for Friday. - Heat and humidity continue Saturday. Heat index values around 100 are expected on the eastern shore, with heat indices in the 103-108F range west of the bay. Heat Advisories are likely to be needed for much of the area Saturday. - Additional chances for late day showers and storms will exist Friday and especially Saturday. The upper ridge axis remains from the Gulf Coast to near the Carolina coast Friday into Friday night, with a surface trough lingering in vicinity of the Piedmont. Hot and humid Friday with highs in the mid to upper 90s (upper 80s/lower 90s toward the coast). This combined with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s will result in heat indices of 105-109F. A heat advisory has been issued for most of the area aside from southern portions of the Eastern Shore and Outer Banks Currituck. PW values increase to 2.00-2.25" Friday into Friday night. However, the the upper trough remains well NW of the region, so the only focal point for convective initiation locally will be the lee-side trough. Therefore, coverage should be limited and only loosely organized. PoPs are mainly 30-40% NW to ~20% SE. Very warm and humid Friday night with lows in the mid to upper 70s. The upper ridge breaks down some by Saturday allowing the upper trough and a weakening cold front to approach from the NW. PW values potentially exceed 2.25". Additionally some stronger mid- level flow approaches from the NW (25-35kt). This could result in some better storm organization, which could result in some stronger tstms, but the more likely threat from showers/tstms will be heavy rain. The most favorable region for some locally heavy rain appears to be across southern/SE VA and NE NC at this time. Highs in the lower to mid 90s and dewpoints in the mid 70s will likely result in heat indices of 105-109 E of the I-95 corridor to the coast, so heat advisories are again likely for at least the eastern half of the area. Showers/tstms likely linger into Saturday evening, before diminishing in coverage overnight. Warm and humid with lows in the lower to mid 70s. The weak front may push far enough E Sunday to allow some slightly drier air to filter in from the NW, with slightly lower chances of afternoon/evening showers/tstms, and mainly over the SE. Highs Sunday will mainly be in the upper 80s to lower 90s, with heat indices in the mid 90s to lower 100s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 PM EDT Thursday... Key Message: - Near or slightly above normal temperatures, but very humid through the period. Remaining a bit unsettled with a chance for mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms each day. Not as hot through the period, but high temps will still be near or slightly above normal ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s. It will still be very humid across the area, and with lee troughs or weak frontal boundaries in the vicinity of the region, expect chances for mainly aftn/evening showers/tstms each day. Heat indices will mainly range from the mid 90s to lower 100s Mon through Wed. Warm and muggy nights with lows ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 850 PM EDT Thursday... VFR conditions prevail at the terminals this evening after brief restrictions associated with showers and storms. Lingering precip will dissipate aob 04z with CIGs generally VFR. Guidance does show the potential for a period of MVFR/IFR CIGs at SBY late tonight but confidence is low. Did include at few hours of BKN MVFR CIGs at SBY for a few hours around sunrise. S or SSW winds have decreased to 5-10 kt and should continue to diminish overnight. SW flow increases to around 10 kt by mid morning through the afternoon. Expecting VFR to prevail on Friday but increasing moisture will lead to SCT/BKN CU with bases around 6kft. Chances for showers and storms increase from the afternoon into the early evening (especially at RIC) but low confidence in coverage and timing preclude any explicit mention in the TAFs at this time. A weakening and slow moving cold front settles into the region Saturday. This will bring a higher chc (40-60%) of aftn/evening showers/tstms. This front settles near the coast Sunday and washes out, with a remnant boundary lingering over the area Monday/Tuesday. The highest chances (30-40%) shift into SE VA/NE NC Sunday, and then generally 30-40% inland and 15-30% toward the coast Monday and Tuesday. && .MARINE... As of 850 PM EDT Thursday... Key messages: - Small Craft Advisories have been discontinued. Southerly winds remain elevated ahead of an approaching cold front Friday and Saturday. - There is a moderate rip risk across area beaches Friday. A convective boundary has pushed through the Bay, and brought locally higher winds earlier this evening. This boundary is weakening over the coastal waters now. Winds shifted to the E/NE at 5-10kt in the lower Bay and are generally southerly 10-15kt with gusts to 20 kt elsewhere. Seas are 3-4 ft with waves 1-2 ft in the Bay. SSW winds shift to the SSE Friday aftn/evening and will remain elevated, but generally sub-SCA, with the northern coastal waters having the greatest chc for seeing marginal SCA conditions Fri night. Similar conditions expected Sat, then lighter winds expected Sunday. A moderate rip current risk in place for all beaches on Friday as the dominate wave direction becomes less shore-normal. && .CLIMATE... No record highs or record high mins were set today/July 4th. Record High Temperatures Fri and Sat (July 5-6) 7/5 7/6 - RIC 102/2012 105/1977 - ORF 98/2012 102/1881 - SBY 102/2012 102/2010 - ECG 100/2012 99/2012 Record High Minimum Temperatures Through Sat (July 4-6) 7/5 7/6 - RIC 79/2012 80/2012 - ORF 80/1999 80/1999 - SBY 81/2012 77/2012 - ECG 77/2018 78/1999 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for MDZ021-022. NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for NCZ012>017- 030>032. VA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for VAZ048-060>062- 064>069-075>090-092-093-095>098-509>525. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM NEAR TERM...AJZ/RHR SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...AJZ/RHR MARINE...AM/LKB CLIMATE...AKQ