458
FXUS61 KAKQ 022337
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
737 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will continue to push through the area this
afternoon, and will be very slow to push through southeast
Virginia and northeast North Carolina this evening into tonight.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected today,
lingering through the evening across southeast zones. Mainly dry
conditions are expected late in the week into next weekend as
high pressure brings lower humidity to the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 650 PM EDT Wednesday...

- Localized flooding from heavy rainfall will remain possible
  through the evening.

- Turning drier behind the front overnight and into Thursday. An
  isolated afternoon/evening shower or storm cannot be ruled out
  over the northern OBX and along/north of the Albemarle sound.

Evening surface analysis depicted a cold front that has become
nearly stationary across the region with the main batch of rain
pushing off of the SE VA/NE NC coast and a secondary round of
scattered showers/storms developing behind it across central and
S VA. A very moist airmass remains in place across the area
with PWATs of 2-2.2 across far SE VA/NE NC. As such, slow storm
motions and efficient rainfall may allow for locally heavy rain
and potentially isolated flooding. Showers taper off later this
evening, but additional isolated activity is possible into early
tonight (especially SE) as the cold front struggles to
completely clear the area. Clearing skies expected by tonight
with lingering clouds across the SE through sunrise. Forecast
lows are in the upper 60s to lower 70s as dew points drop into
the ~mid 60s. Patchy fog is also possible across the Piedmont
as skies begin to clear as well as SE VA/NE NC (where heavy rain
fell today).

Much drier and warmer Thursday in the wake of the cold front. Highs
warm into the upper 80s to around 90 F under a mostly sunny sky.
However, a secondary cold front is expected to drop in from the N
later in the day Thursday. While it should be predominantly dry,
there could be a shower/storm or two in the later afternoon and
evening hours. NBM PoPs are mainly dry (outside of near the
Albemarle Sound), but a slight chc could need to be introduced if
coverage looks a tad higher. Lows Thursday night again in the upper
60s-lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Dry, warm, and noticeably less humid for the Fourth of July
  holiday into the first part of the weekend.

A pleasant and dry, but still warm, Fourth of July holiday looks to
be in store as an upper trough axis slides through and high pressure
builds to our N. Highs temperatures range from the mid/upper
80s to around 90 F, with sunny to mostly sunny skies and light
onshore flow. Dew points range through the 60s (potentially down
into the upper 50s at peak heating across the northern 1/2 of
the CWA), so it should feel quite comfortable. Mainly clear
Friday night with lows mostly ranging through the 60s (lower 70s
SE coast).

Into the holiday weekend, high pressure looks to remain N of the
area. Meanwhile, a stacked sfc/upper low offshore of the SE coast
should continue to spin through the weekend. While this system has a
moderate (40%) probability of taking on some tropical/subtropical
characteristics, most guidance keeps it quite weak and S of the
area through the weekend. With the high N and low S, easterly
onshore flow of ~10 mph should keep temps near normal for early
July. Highs in the mid- upper 80s, with near 90 F possible in
the central VA/urban RIC corridor. Dew points in the upper 50s
to lower 60s will make for a very comfortable airmass for July.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- A chance of showers across southeast VA and northeast NC
  Sunday. Otherwise, mostly to partly sunny and warm.

- Becoming increasingly hot and humid by next week with
  afternoon/evening storm chances.

A gradual increase in humidity starts Sunday, and especially Monday-
Tuesday, along with chances of diurnal showers/tstms well in advance
of another cold front moving into the Great Lakes. PoPs for Sunday
are 20-30% as some moisture pushes in from the low to our
south. While any appreciable impact still looks to stay well S
of the area, it is worth keeping an eye on this in case it
messes with the cloud cover or temp forecast (given it likely
undercuts the building ridge). Still, Sunday still looks quite
pleasant and far from a washout (for now). The aforementioned
low or trough axis lingers offshore into early next week before
moving off to our NE midweek. Daily high temperatures also warm
back into the lower 90s with overnight lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 735 PM EDT Wednesday...

Some lingering IFR/LCL LIFR along the coast to begin the 00z/03
TAF period, but generally noting showers quickly weakening and
exiting offshore. Gradual clearing continues over the next few
hours, which should clear the way for some fog potential,
especially after midnight, especially SSW of KORF and at KECG.
Have allowed for MVFR VSBY/CIGs at PHF and ORF late tonight
with IFR/low-end MVFR hanging on near ECG toward sunrise,
clearing shortly thereafter. Winds are generally light and
variable and should remain that way through much of the TAF
period, becoming WNW 5-10 kt by mid-morning Thursday, with some
afternoon seabreeze accounted for at KORF/KECG. Slight chance of
an afternoon shower or storm at KECG, but chances/areal coverage
are much too low to account for in the terminal forecast at
this time.

Outlook: VFR conditions return Thursday afternoon through
Sunday as drier air builds into the region behind the cold
front.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 225 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions return to the region behind a weak front.

Afternoon analysis shows the main surface front has made slow
southeast progress so far with widespread showers over the Ches Bay
and points south with stronger convection mostly confined to areas
near and south of the VA/NC border. Winds have transitioned to NW 5-
10 kt behind the (rain-cooled) effective frontal boundary while NC
waters continue to see winds from the W or SW 5-10 kt. Waves are 1-2
ft with seas offshore generally 2-3 ft.

A few more hours of stronger convection are possible across mainly
NC coastal waters/Currituck Sound. So far today, convection has been
primarily a flooding concern with little in the way of strong winds
indicated via radar or surface observations. That said, the
potential for a few SMWs will continue through 4-6pm before deeper
convection moves out of the local area. High pressure builds into
the region tonight. Some patchy fog is possible late tonight but
should be favored over far inland areas vs near the coast.

&&

.CLIMATE...
June 2025 ranked in the Top 10 Warmest at all 4 Long term
Climate stations:

* Site: Avg Temp (Rank)

- RIC: 78.1 (5th warmest)
- ORF: 78.8 (7th warmest)
- SBY: 75.6 (9th warmest)
- ECG: 78.6 (10th warmest)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB/SW
NEAR TERM...RMM/SW
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...LKB/SW
AVIATION...MAM/RHR
MARINE...RHR
CLIMATE...