978
FXUS61 KAKQ 051950
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
350 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure lingers offshore with building heat and humidity today
and Saturday. Daily chances of mainly afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms continue into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 330 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Excessive Heat Warnings remain in effect through the evening for
  much of the area with Heat Advisories elsewhere.

- Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening storms are
  possible. Potential for a few storms in the piedmont to become
  severe.

- Temperatures remain very warm overnight.

High pressure continues to sit off the SE this afternoon while a
weak stationary front is situated well the NW. Aloft, a ridge is in
place from the Gulf coast to the Mid-Atlantic with a trough dipping
into the upper Midwest. A moist airmass is in place, allowing
dewpoints to climb into the upper 70s. Latest mesoscale analysis
indicates PWs over 2" along the coast and 1.5-2" in the piedmont.
Temps have risen into the mid to upper 90s this afternoon.
Dangerously high heat indices are evident with latest obs, which
show widespread values near 110 (a few sites have occasionally shown
112 even). Thus, the Excessive Heat Warning and Heat Advisories will
continue into the evening. Latest radar shows convection initiating
in SW VA with 1 or 2 small showers starting to show along the SW
border of the FA. Not expecting widespread storms this evening, but
will see scattered convection primarily through the NW half of the
FA. CAMs continue to favor the late evening time period for the
majority of precip.  Areas W of the bay have 20-40% PoPs (highest in
SW) through the rest of the afternoon, then PoPs increase to 40-55%
for areas W of I-95 after sunset. Later tonight, may see isolated
showers/storms along northern counties. There is a marginal risk for
severe storms along the western tier of counties. While shear is not
favorable, plentiful MLCAPE (1500-2000J/KG) and decent low level
lapse rates will allow a chance for damaging wind gusts with
stronger storms.

Scattered to broken cloud cover is expected to remain in place
overnight, which will aid in keeping overnight temps rather warm.
Lows tonight will be in the upper 70s. A few locations along the
coast may not even drop lower than 80F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Very hot conditions continue into Saturday with heat indices
  of up to around 110F possible along portions of eastern
  Virginia and northeast North Carolina with 102-107F farther
  west and across the Eastern Shore.

- Scattered storms are possible Saturday afternoon into
  Saturday night.

The upper ridge breaks down some by Saturday allowing the upper
trough and a weakening cold front to approach from the NW.
Meanwhile, an upper level low lingers off the Southeast coast.

PW values remain very high Sat (2-2.2" with locally higher
values). Additionally some stronger mid- level flow approaches
from the NW. This could result in some better storm
organization, which may allow for some stronger storms. That
being said, the more likely threat from showers/storms will be
heavy rain given the very moist environment. The most favorable
region for some locally heavy rain appears to be across
southern/SE VA and NE NC at this time. However, widespread
rainfall totals of 0.5-1.0" appear possible from Mecklenburg NE
to the Northern Neck. Localized higher totals are possible.
Storm coverage farther W appears more conditional with mainly
the NAM being the outlier with higher coverage in this area. A
cold front approaches the area but stalls, allowing for PoPs to
continue overnight Sat night and into Sun with the highest PoPs
across SE VA/NE NC. Showers/storms gradually move offshore Sun
night.

Given morning lows in the upper 70s to around 80F across E
portions of the FA Sat morning, it won`t take much heating for
temps to rise into the 90s with afternoon highs in the mid 90s W
to the mid-upper 90s E. Dew points remain very high Sat in the
mid 70s W to the upper 70s E. Given the combination of heat and
humidity, the heat indices may rise to around 110F across
portions of E/SE VA and NE NC with 105-108F farther west
(102-105 across the far W Piedmont) and across the Eastern
Shore. Extensions of the Excessive Heat Warning or additional
Heat Advisories through Sat are possible depending on forecast
trends. Will note that the challenging aspect of Sat is that
storms are expected to be more widespread in coverage. If they
happen early enough, the rain cooled air and cloud cover may
keep temps cooler than currently forecast. If this happens, heat
indices may be lower than and/or a shorter duration than
currently forecast. Even so, Heat Advisories (at a minimum) are
likely for most of the area. DESI probs are not as high for Sat
as they are for Fri with 20-40% chances for heat indices >109F
across SE VA/NE NC. With the convection allowing for rain cooled
air, lows Sat night will be cooler than tonight in the lower
70s W to mid 70s along the E of I-95. Highs Sun in the upper 80s
to lower 90s with lows Sun night in the low-mid 70s expected.
Heat indices will be cooler on Sun (95-100F).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

- Slightly above normal temperatures and very humid conditions
  continue through next week.

- Remaining a bit unsettled with a chance for mainly afternoon
  and evening showers and storms each day.

Not as hot through the period, but high temps will still be
slightly above normal ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s
(most in the lower 90s). Humidity sticks around with dew points
in the 70s continuing through the week. Additionally, with lee
troughs and/or weak frontal boundaries in the vicinity of the
region, expect chances for mainly afternoon/evening
showers/storms each day. Heat indices will mainly range from
the mid 90s to lower 100s through the week. Warm and muggy
nights continue as well with lows ranging from the upper 60s to
mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 150 PM EDT Friday...

Scattered CU (VFR CIGs around 7000-10000 ft) have started
building in from SW to NE this afternoon and will continue to
expand across the region into the evening. Isolated to
scattered showers and storms are possible this afternoon into
this evening. Highest coverage in storms will likely be west of
local terminals. Confidence in coverage is too low to go with
more than VCSH/VCTS at RIC/SBY. Mostly cloudy skies move in
tonight with MVFR (and potentially IFR) CIGs possible across
portions of SE VA and NE NC as well as SBY.

A weakening and slow moving cold front settles into the region
Saturday. This will bring a higher chance of afternoon/evening
showers/storms. This front settles near the coast Sunday and
washes out, with a remnant boundary lingering over the area
Monday/Tuesday. Unsettled weather continues through the week
with daily chances for showers/storms.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 345 PM EDT Friday...

Late this aftn, winds were SSE 5-15 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt
across the waters. Waves were 1-2 ft and seas were 3-4 ft.

SSE winds will increase to 10-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt, as a
cold front begins to slowly approach from the NW, tightening
the gradient over the waters. Winds will first increase across
the southern waters early this evening, with the higher gusts
spreading north later through this evening. Latest local wind
probs show the best potential for 25 kt gusts (70-80% chance)
out 20 nm, with lower probabilities closer to the coast. In
addition to the wind, seas will also increase to around 5 feet
this evening into tonight. SCAs remain in effect for the lower
Ches Bay and Currituck Sound through this evening, and the srn
two coastal zns into tonight. Have extended the SCA for the nrn
three coastal zns into Sat night, due to 5 feet seas lingering.

Similar conditions are expected on Sat, with S winds again
ramping up later Sat aftn into Sat night, mainly over the
coastal waters. Lighter winds are then expected Sun into early
next week, as the cold front dissipates over the local waters.

A moderate rip current risk is in place for all beaches through
Sat.

&&

.CLIMATE...
No record highs or record high mins were set today/July 4th.

Record High Temperatures Fri and Sat (July 5-6)

          7/5       7/6
- RIC  102/2012   105/1977
- ORF   98/2012   102/1881
- SBY  102/2012   102/2010
- ECG  100/2012    99/2012


Record High Minimum Temperatures Through Sat (July 4-6)

           7/5       7/6
- RIC    79/2012   80/2012
- ORF    80/1999   80/1999
- SBY    81/2012   77/2012
- ECG    77/2018   78/1999

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ021>024.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for MDZ021>024.
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ102.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for NCZ012>017-
     030>032.
     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ048-060-061-
     099-100-509-510.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for VAZ062-
     064>069-075>090-092-093-095>098-511>525.
     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ062-
     064>069-075>090-092-093-095>098-511>525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ632>634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...AM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...AM/RMM
MARINE...AJB/TMG
CLIMATE...AKQ