902
FXUS61 KAKQ 042011
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
411 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure off the coast gradually settles south into the
western Atlantic through late this week. Heat and humidity build
over the region today through early next week. Daily chances of
mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms also
return today into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 410 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Showers and thunderstorms move into central Virginia this
  afternoon and dissipate this evening.

An upper ridge extends from the Gulf Coast to the Carolinas
this afternoon, with a trough across the Upper Midwest. At the
surface, high pressure is centered off the Southeast Coast, with
a lee-side trough over the Piedmont. Hot and increasingly humid
away from the immediate coast this afternoon with temperatures
mainly in the lower to mid 90s and heat indices in the upper 90s
to lower 100s. Milder at the immediate coast with temperatures
in the upper 70s to lower 80s with a SSE wind. A cluster of
showers/tstms formed across the higher terrain earlier this
afternoon and is now moving into the NW Piedmont. This activity
will move SE toward the RIC metro and SW Piedmont through 5-7
PM. However, most CAMs suggest this activity will diminish after
7 PM, and this makes sense given that this activity will move
into a less favorable environment in closer proximity to the
upper ridge axis. Otherwise, partly cloudy warm and humid
tonight with lows in the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 410 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for Friday.

- Heat and humidity continue Saturday. Heat index values around
  100 are expected on the eastern shore, with heat indices in
  the 103-108F range west of the bay. Heat Advisories are likely
  to be needed for much of the area Saturday.

- Additional chances for late day showers and storms will exist
  Friday and especially Saturday.

The upper ridge axis remains from the Gulf Coast to near the
Carolina coast Friday into Friday night, with a surface trough
lingering in vicinity of the Piedmont. Hot and humid Friday with
highs in the mid to upper 90s (upper 80s/lower 90s toward the
coast). This combined with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s
will result in heat indices of 105-109F. A heat advisory has
been issued for most of the area aside from southern portions of
the Eastern Shore and Outer Banks Currituck. PW values increase
to 2.00-2.25" Friday into Friday night. However, the the upper
trough remains well NW of the region, so the only focal point
for convective initiation locally will be the lee-side trough.
Therefore, coverage should be limited and only loosely
organized. PoPs are mainly 30-40% NW to ~20% SE. Very warm and
humid Friday night with lows in the mid to upper 70s.

The upper ridge breaks down some by Saturday allowing the upper
trough and a weakening cold front to approach from the NW. PW
values potentially exceed 2.25". Additionally some stronger mid-
level flow approaches from the NW (25-35kt). This could result
in some better storm organization, which could result in some
stronger tstms, but the more likely threat from showers/tstms
will be heavy rain. The most favorable region for some locally
heavy rain appears to be across southern/SE VA and NE NC at this
time. Highs in the lower to mid 90s and dewpoints in the mid
70s will likely result in heat indices of 105-109 E of the I-95
corridor to the coast, so heat advisories are again likely for
at least the eastern half of the area. Showers/tstms likely
linger into Saturday evening, before diminishing in coverage
overnight. Warm and humid with lows in the lower to mid 70s. The
weak front may push far enough E Sunday to allow some slightly
drier air to filter in from the NW, with slightly lower chances
of afternoon/evening showers/tstms, and mainly over the SE.
Highs Sunday will mainly be in the upper 80s to lower 90s, with
heat indices in the mid 90s to lower 100s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

- Near or slightly above normal temperatures, but very humid
  through the period. Remaining a bit unsettled with a chance
  for mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms each day.

Not as hot through the period, but high temps will still be
near or slightly above normal ranging from the upper 80s to
lower 90s. It will still be very humid across the area, and with
lee troughs or weak frontal boundaries in the vicinity of the
region, expect chances for mainly aftn/evening showers/tstms
each day. Heat indices will mainly range from the mid 90s to
lower 100s Mon through Wed. Warm and muggy nights with lows
ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 210 PM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions prevail as of 18z with surface high pressure
centered off the Southeast coast. The wind is mainly S to SSW
~10kt with FEW-SCT CU developing with bases of 5-6kft. A cluster
of showers/tstms has developed over the higher terrain to the W
and is currently crossing the Blue Ridge. These showers/tstms
are expected to approach RIC after 20z, and mainly in the 21-23z
timeframe. The latest guidance suggests much of this activity
dissipates from 23-01z prior to reaching the remaining
terminals. These showers/tstms could produce some stronger wind
gusts at RIC along with brief vsby restrictions in rain.
Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail tonight into Friday
morning under a partly cloudy sky with a 5-10kt SSW wind. By
Friday aftn, there is a ~30% chc of showers/tstms at RIC, and a
15-20% chc at the remaining terminals. The wind should mainly be
SSW 8-12kt Friday aftn, but locally variable and gusty in and
near any tstms.

A weakening and slow moving cold front settles into the region
Saturday. This will bring a higher chc (40-60%) of aftn/evening
showers/tstms. This front settles near the coast Sunday and
washes out, with a remnant boundary lingering over the area
Monday/Tuesday. The highest chances (30-40%) shift into SE VA/NE
NC Sunday, and then generally 30-40% inland and 15-30% toward
the coast Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 350 PM EDT Thursday...

Key messages:

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect across portions of the
  Chesapeake Bay and Virginia coastal waters late this afternoon
  into tonight.

- There is a high rip risk today across the northern beaches
  and a moderate rip risk across the southern beaches.

- A period of elevated, diurnally-driven southerly winds is
  possible Friday and Saturday with Small Craft Advisory
  conditions possible.

An elongated area of high pressure is situated just offshore this
afternoon with a weak front well to the NW of local waters. Latest
wind obs reflect SSE winds that are generally 5-10kt, but a few
sites in the northern bay and MD coastal waters show 10-15kt. The
diurnal pattern of increased winds in the evening hours continues
today. SSE winds of 15-20kt are expected in the coastal waters and
middle/lower Ches Bay, ~10kt in the rivers and Currituck Sound. SCAs
are in effect for the lower and middle bay through the evening.
While winds fall a bit below criteria for coastal waters, seas
around 5ft near 20nm are expected for some of the coastal water
zones, so SCAs are in effect from Cape Charles to Chincoteague into
late tonight. Winds diminish to 10-15kt and turn SSW late tonight
through tomorrow morning. Friday follows a similar pattern as today,
except the evening increase looks to be higher in the coastal waters
(15-20kt) than in the bay (10-15kt). Additional SCAs may be needed
for northern coastal waters Friday evening for gusts of 25kt and
seas of 4-5ft. Similar conditions expected Sat, then lighter winds
expected Sunday.

Seas this afternoon are around 3ft, waves are 1-2ft. Seas pick up to
3-5ft overnight, then fall back to 3-4ft Friday morning. As winds
over coastal waters Fri, seas will increase to 4-5ft. Seas 3-4ft
expected Sat. Waves will follow a general pattern of 1-2ft during
the early morning-early afternoon hours, then increasing to 2-3ft in
the evening hours with the diurnal wind increase.

High rip current risk continues at the northern beaches through the
evening due to a near shore-normal swell with longer periods. A
moderate rip current risk in place for southern beaches. The
dominate wave direction becomes less shore-normal tomorrow, so will
maintain a moderate risk for both northern and southern beaches
tomorrow.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures Through Sat (July 4-6)

        7/4          7/5       7/6
RIC   100/2002    102/2012   105/1977
ORF    98/1997     98/2012   102/1881
SBY   100/1919    102/2012   102/2010
ECG   100/1997    100/2012    99/2012


Record High Minimum Temperatures Through Sat (July 4-6)

         7/4         7/5       7/6
RIC    77/1900     79/2012    80/2012
ORF    79/2012     80/1999    80/1999
SBY    78/2012     81/2012    77/2012
ECG    78/2012     77/2018    78/1999

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for MDZ021-022.
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for NCZ012>017-
     030>032.
VA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for VAZ048-060>062-
     064>069-075>090-092-093-095>098-509>525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ631-
     632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for ANZ652-654.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AM
CLIMATE...