838
FXUS61 KAKQ 080757
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
357 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather continues through the week with daily chances for
scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms. More widespread
showers and thunderstorms are likely Thursday through Friday. Very
warm and humid conditions continue through much of the week as well.
The highest heat indices are expected on Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 345 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Areas of marine fog linger across eastern portions of the Eastern
Shore early this morning.

The weak cold front continues to wash out today. Temps as of 330 AM
ranged from the low-mid 70s for most of the area with upper 70s
along the coast under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Fog over the
ocean N of Parramore Island continues to spread inland into adjacent
portions of the eastern shore early this morning before lifting
shortly after sunrise. Apart from the marine layer fog, additional
patchy ground fog is possible overnight across S central VA and NE
NC. Some model guidance suggests that isolated to scattered showers
(and perhaps an isolated storm) may develop around sunrise (similar
to what happened yesterday). As such, have PoPs increasing to 25-30%
later this morning.

Aloft, an upper level ridge lingers over the Southeast with an upper
level low underneath. At the same time, an upper level trough
lingers across the N central CONUS. At the surface, Hurricane Beryl
continues to move towards the TX coastline. Humidity increases today
with dew points rising into the mid 70s across much of the area.
This combined with temps rising into the low-mid 90s (most in the
lower 90s) will allow for heat indices rising to 98-103F. While a
few localized areas may reach heat indices around 105F this
afternoon, 105F heat indices don`t look to be widespread enough to
warrant a Heat Advisory. Scattered showers/storms increase in
coverage this afternoon across central portions of the FA (40-50%
PoPs). Given the very humid (PWATs ~2.00") airmass in place and slow
storm motions, locally heavy rainfall is possible. Showers/storms
taper off this evening with lows tonight in the mid 70s for
most.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 355 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Hot and humid Tuesday and Wednesday with widespread heat indices
of 105-109F.

- Scattered showers and storms continue Tuesday and Wednesday.

Heat and humidity lingers Tue and Wed with highs in the mid-upper
90s Tue and low-mid 90s Wed. Given dew points in the mid-upper 70s
both days, heat indices rise to 105-109F Tue and 103-108F Wed. Heat
Advisories are likely across much of the area both days. Tue looks
to be the hotter day with some potential for heat indices
approaching 110F in spots.

The remnants of Hurricane Beryl get lifted up by an upper level
trough over the upper Midwest Tue-Wed. While the remnants of
Beryl remain NW of the local area, the trailing cold front from
the system moves towards the local area Wed, stalling E of the
Appalachians on Wed night. A few isolated to scattered
showers/storms are possible across central portions of the FA on
Tue (25-30% PoPs) with higher PoPs across the W Piedmont on Wed
(35-50% PoPs). Convection may linger into central portions of
the FA Wed night as the cold front stalls.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 320 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Near normal temperatures and very humid conditions continue
  through next week.

- Remaining unsettled with daily chances for showers and storms.

- The highest precipitation chances will be from late Thursday
through Friday evening. While the threat for severe weather looks to
be limited, locally heavy rainfall is possible late this week.

Unsettled wx is expected late this week into the weekend weak S-SW
flow aloft continues across the area in between broader troughing to
the NW and ridging offshore. The remnants of Beryl lift NE into srn
Quebec by Friday with direct rainfall from the system remaining to
the NW of the local area. PWs likely remain at or above 2.0" through
the week, allowing for very humid conditions. Meanwhile, a shortwave
may track along the southwestern periphery of the offshore ridge
before turning to the N and tracking across the local area late
Thursday through Friday evening. As a result, scattered to numerous
showers/tstms are expected Thu aftn and evening, with showers and a
few tstms likely continuing Thu night and through much of Fri/Fri
evening before potentially tapering off by late Friday night as the
shortwave exits the area. More typical diurnally driven tstms are
expected next weekend. While there likely won`t be as much of a
severe threat, locally heavy rainfall is possible through the week,
especially Thursday through Friday evening. Have likely PoPs for
Thu/Fri with slight chance to chance PoPs next weekend.

Highs Thu in the upper 80s-lower 90s, dropping to the 85-90F range
for Fri-Sat. Lows mainly between 70-75F through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 145 AM EDT Monday...

Cloud cover increases overnight with mainly VFR CIGs apart from
MVFR/IFR CIGs across S central VA. These lower CIGs may reach
ORF. Marine layer fog has already moved onshore the Eastern
Shore with MVFR VIS expected to drop to IFR later tonight at
SBY. Additional patchy ground fog is possible across S central
VA and NE NC overnight. Fog lifts shortly after sunrise with VIS
improving to VFR. Similar to yesterday, isolated to scattered
showers (and potentially storms) are possible around sunrise
with greater coverage of scattered showers and storms in the
afternoon. IFR VIS is possible with any showers/storms.
Showers/storms taper off by the evening with a return of VFR
conditions under partly to mostly cloudy skies.

Unsettled weather continues through the week with daily chances
for showers/storms (mainly during the afternoon/evening
timeframe).

&&

.MARINE...
As of 315 AM EDT Monday...

Key messages:

- Marine Dense Fog Advisory in effect through 7 AM this morning for
ocean zones from Fenwick to Parramore Island for VSBYs less than 1
NM.

- Generally benign, sub-SCA conditions are expected through Tuesday.

- SCA conditions are possible Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
due to increasing southerly winds.

Early this morning, a weak front is located over the local waters
with winds out of the SW ranging from 5 to 10 knots. Seas are
running around 2 feet and waves in the Chesapeake Bay are running
around 1 foot.

A weak front will remain near the waters through tomorrow as it
gradually dissipates over the area. Winds will generally remain out
of the S to SSE and continue to run around 10 knots. Brief increases
in wind speeds to around 10 to 15 knots will be possible both this
afternoon and Tuesday afternoon due to afternoon sea breezes. Seas
will average 2 to 3 feet and waves in the bay 1 to 2 feet through
this timeframe.

Southerly winds increase Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening
ahead of another approaching cold front from the northwest. Local
wind probs are maximized Wednesday evening through Wednesday night,
showing a decent potential for gusts of 20 to 25 knots over the
ocean and Chesapeake Bay. In addition, seas will increase to 4 to 5
feet and waves in the bay increase to 2 to 3 feet Wednesday night.
SCAs will likely be needed for at least the ocean and bay starting
Wednesday afternoon. Southerly winds continue to gust around 20 to
25 knots through the day Thursday, before gradually diminishing
Thursday night. Sub-SCA conditions then likely return late this week
into this weekend.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ650-652.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERI
NEAR TERM...RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...ERI/RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...AJB