743
FXUS61 KAKQ 061047
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
647 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Very hot and humid again today with scattered afternoon
thunderstorms across southeastern portions of the area. Somewhat
cooler but humid conditions continue through next week with daily
chances of mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 645 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Very hot and humid conditions continue with heat indices up to around
  112F possible across the eastern half of the area and 103-
  108F farther west. Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories
  are in effect for the entire area.

- Scattered storms are possible this afternoon into tonight
  across mainly southeast portions of the area with heavy rain
  possible.

High pressure continues to sit off the SE early this morning while a
weak stationary front is situated well the NW. Aloft, a ridge is in
place from the Gulf coast to the S Mid-Atlantic with a trough
dipping into the upper Midwest. A moist airmass remains in place
with latest mesoanalysis showing PWATs of 2-2.2" across the area.
Temps as of 640 AM ranged from the mid 70s W to the upper 70s
to around 80F E. A few light showers continue to move NE across
the Eastern Shore.

Very hot and humid conditions continue today under partly cloudy
skies. Given that temps and dew points will already be starting out
in the mid-upper 70s, it won`t take long for heat indices to climb
above 100F by around 10-11AM. DESI probs for heat indices >109 have
increased to 60-80% across Hampton Roads with 40-50% probs across NE
NC and lower probs NW up to I-95. As such, confidence has increased
in heat indices climbing yet again to 110-112F (locally higher
possible) E of I-95 and including the Eastern Shore. Confidence
decreases substantially around the I-95 corridor where heat indices
of 107-110F are possible. Heat indices decrease farther W and along
the Outer Banks and Eastern Shore beaches. However, heat indices up
to 105F are possible in these areas. As such, have upgrades to
Excessive Heat Warnings along and E of I-95 (excluding the
aforementioned beaches) with Heat Advisories in effect for the
remainder of the area. Will note that confidence in the far W
counties is lower due to the potential for more mixing of the dew
points. Otherwise, highs today in the mid-upper 90s are expected
with lows tonight in the lower 70s W to the mid-upper 70s E.

A cold front approaches from the W today, stalling over central VA.
Model guidance has come into better agreement regarding convection
this afternoon remaining limited to primarily SE VA/NE NC where PoPs
increase to 60% this afternoon. Farther N/NW PoPs are 30-40% with
some uncertainty regarding how far NW the showers/storms push. PoPs
linger across SE portions of the FA through tonight but gradually
diminish with time. Given very high PWATs and weak shear, heavy rain
will be possible with any storms, especially if storms train
with >1" of rain possible. WPC has SE portions of the FA under
a slight risk for excessive rainfall with marginal for the
remainder of the FA. Additionally, a few strong to potentially
severe storms are also possible (mainly across SE VA/NE NC).
However, widespread severe storms are not anticipated.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 405 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers and storms are possible Sunday and Monday.

- Remaining humid with heat indices of 98-105F each day.

The cold front lingers as a stationary front across the area
early next week with daily chances for showers and storms
continuing. The best chance Sun is across SE VA/NE NC (40-60%
PoPs) with the best chance Mon across the Piedmont (40-50%
PoPs). Given the very high PWATs, locally heavy rain will be
possible both days. Temps will remain in the upper 80s to low-
mid 90s each day. However, with dew points remaining in the
mid-upper 70s SE on Sun and mid 70s everywhere on Mon, heat
indices of 98-105F are possible both days. Lows in the low-mid
70s are expected both nights as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 410 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

- Near normal temperatures and very humid conditions continue
  through next week.

- Remaining unsettled with daily chances for mainly afternoon
  and evening showers and storms.

Highs Tue and Wed mainly in the lower 90s with highs the rest
of the week in the mid-upper 80s. However, humidity sticks
around with dew points in the 70s continuing through the week.
Additionally, with lee troughs and/or weak frontal boundaries in
the vicinity of the region, expect chances for mainly afternoon
and evening showers/storms each day (40-55% PoPs each day). Tue
and Wed are the hottest of the week with heat indices of
95-103F (locally 105F possible Tue). Heat indices return to the
low-mid 90s for Thu and Fri.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 645 AM EDT Saturday...

Partly cloudy skies linger today with primarily VFR CIGs.
However, some MVFR/IFR CIGs are possible across E portions of
the Eastern Shore over the next few hours. CU redevelop this
afternoon with scattered showers and storms developing across SE
VA/NE NC and potentially extending up to the Eastern Shore as a
cold front approaches and stalls. Showers and storms are most
likely between 20-00z at ORF/ECG with lower confidence at
PHF/RIC/SBY. Winds remain SSW/S around 10 kt through the period
(locally higher in showers/storms). As the front stalls inland
and temps cool overnight, CIGs lower to MVFR (locally IFR)
overnight. Unsettled weather continues through the week with
daily chances for showers/storms.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 AM EDT Saturday...

Key messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the coastal waters
north of Cape Charles for seas up to 5 feet and southerly wind gusts
up to 25 knots.

- There is a moderate rip risk for all area beaches today.

Early this morning, a weak cold front is located west of the local
area with winds out of the S to SSW ranging from 10 to 15 knots with
gusts around 20 knots. Seas are running around 4 to 5 feet north of
Cape Charles and 3 to 4 feet south. Waves in the Bay are generally
running around 2 feet.

Similar to yesterday, winds will increase during the
afternoon/evening hours with the highest winds over the coastal
waters/out 20 nm (occasional gusts to ~25 knots). Scattered showers
and thunderstorms will also fire up later this afternoon into the
first part of the night, a few of which may require Special Marine
Warnings due to strong wind gusts. The cold front will slowly
approach tonight, before stalling/dissipating over or near the local
waters on Sunday. Predominately sub-SCA winds are then expected
Sunday through early next week, generally running around 10 to 15
knots out of the S or SE. The next potential for marginal SCAs will
be Wednesday into Thursday as another cold front approaches from the
west. In typical summer-time fashion, the front will likely
dissipate over the local waters.

There is a moderate rip current risk at all area beaches today.
There is a moderate rip current risk for the northern beaches
tomorrow, with a low risk south.

&&

.CLIMATE...
No record highs set today 7/6. See below for actual high temps:

- RIC  99 (Record 102/2012)
- ORF  97 (Record 98/2012)
- SBY  94 (Record 102/2012)
- ECG  94 (Record 100/2012)


Record High Temperatures for Sat (July 6):

- RIC  105/1977
- ORF  102/1881
- SBY  102/2010
- ECG  99/2012


Record High Minimum Temperatures Through Sat (July 5-6)

           7/5       7/6
- RIC    79/2012   80/2012
- ORF    80/1999   80/1999
- SBY    81/2012   77/2012
- ECG    77/2018   78/1999

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT
     this evening for MDZ021>024.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for MDZ025.
NC...Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT
     this evening for NCZ012>017-030>032.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for NCZ102.
VA...Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT
     this evening for VAZ075>090-092-093-095>100-512>525.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-509>511.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...AJB
CLIMATE...