Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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491 FXUS61 KAKQ 071749 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 149 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled weather continues through the week with daily chances for scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms. Very warm and humid conditions continue through the week as well. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1050 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorms are likely across NE NC and are possible across SE VA and the Eastern Shore. - Locally heavy rainfall is possible in NE NC. A cold front is pushing through the area late this morning, and is situated near the VA-NC border. A broad upper trough is over the upper Midwest, with two areas of upper ridging: one near Bermuda and one over the ern Gulf of Mexico and SE CONUS. A cutoff low resides in between the two areas of ridging. A few showers continue just to the north of the front with widespread cloud cover due to moisture getting pulled NE between the trough to the NW and ridge to the SE. Temps are mainly in the upper 70s-80s. Given the cloud cover (that should linger through much of the day), temps will be "cooler" today with highs in the low- mid 90s in most areas. Afternoon dew points are expected to range from the mid 60s NW (behind the cold front) to the mid 70s SE. As such, heat indices will be in the 90s in most areas with ~100F heat indices near the coast. The front won`t move much today and will likely stall across far SE VA or NE NC before moving back north as a warm front late this evening-tonight before eventually washing out. Expect scattered tstms to develop along/ahead of the cold front by 2-3 PM (from central NC to extreme SE VA and NE NC) with storms persisting through at least part of the evening. There could also be tstm or two over the Eastern Shore off the sea breeze this aftn. Have maintained likely PoPs across far SE portions of the FA with mainly slight chc PoPs inland (and PoPs below 15% NW of the RIC Metro). The highest coverage of tstms is expected to be in the 2-9 PM timeframe. With PWATs of 2-2.2" remaining across SE VA/NE NC, locally heavy rainfall will be possible with storms. WPC has a marginal risk for excessive rainfall across NE NC to account for this potential. A few storms may be strong as well with localized damaging winds due to wet microbursts possible. Showers and storms quickly taper off after with lows in the lower 70s W to mid 70s E tonight. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Scattered showers and storms are possible Monday and Tuesday, mainly during the afternoon and evening. - Remaining humid with heat indices of 100-105F Monday and 100-108F Tuesday. Upper ridging off the SE CONUS coast builds a by Tue as a trough picks up the remnants of Beryl over the Arklatex region late Mon into Tue. This will result in slight height rises over the FA with low- level southerly flow. As such temps increase from the low-mid 90s on Mon (heat indices of 100-105F) to the mid 90s inland to lower 90s along the coast on Tue (heat indices of 100-108F). Heat indices around 105F look isolated enough Mon to maintain no heat headlines. However, with widespread heat indices of 105-108F across interior portions of the FA on Tue, Heat Advisories are possible. Apart from the continued heat, unsettled weather continues as well with scattered showers and storms possible (30-50% PoPs) Mon (best chance S) and Tue (30-35% PoPs). Lows in the low-mid 70s both nights. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 410 AM EDT Sunday... Key Message: - Near normal temperatures and very humid conditions continue through next week. - Remaining unsettled with daily chances for mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms. Daily chances for showers/storms (highest during the afternoon/evening) will continue through the remainder of the week as weak S-SW flow aloft continues across the area in between broader troughing to the NW and ridging offshore. The remnants of Beryl lift NE into the Great Lakes by Wed with direct rainfall from the system remaining to the NW of the local area. PWs may remain at or above 2.0" through the week, allowing for very humid conditions and the daily diurnal chance for showers/storms. While there likely won`t be as much of a severe threat, locally heavy rainfall is possible through the week, particularly if storms train over the same areas day after day. PoPs increase to 35-55% Wed, 50-55% Thu, and 55-60% Fri and Sat. Wednesday will be the hottest day of the period with highs in the lower- mid 90s (and heat indices of 100-105F). Otherwise, highs mainly in the 85-90F range from Thu- Sat. Lows mainly between 70-75F through the period (locally cooler in the Piedmont). && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 145 PM EDT Sunday... VFR at this hour with SCT-BKN clouds and a few showers near ORF/PHF/ECG as a cold front has stalled across N/NE North Carolina. Showers/tstms are progged to increase in coverage across NC with showers and perhaps a tstm INVOF PHF/ORF/SBY through 21-00z. Have removed the mention of thunder from PHF/ORF/SBY due to decreasing confidence with the front to the south but have left VCTS (w/ TEMPO TSRA) at ECG through early evening. IFR/LIFR VSBYs will be possible in any showers/storms. Showers and storms taper off in the evening with some MVFR CIGs possible late. Additionally, patchy fog is possible on the MD Eastern Shore early Mon AM (but this most likely stays east of SBY). Any lower CIGs will quickly scatter out Monday AM giving way to SCT cumulus during the latter part of the day and isolated to widely scattered tstms during the aftn/evening. Unsettled weather continues through the week with daily chances for showers/tstms (mainly during the afternoon/evening timeframe). && .MARINE... As of 300 AM EDT Sunday... Key messages: - Generally benign, typical summertime conditions are expected through midweek. - There is a moderate rip risk for the northern beaches today. Early this morning, a weak cold front is located just west of the waters with winds out of the S to SW ranging from 10 to 15 knots. Seas are running around 2 to 4 feet and waves in the Chesapeake Bay are running around 1 to 2 feet. The cold front will stall/dissipate over or near the local waters on today. Predominately sub-SCA winds are expected today through Wednesday, generally running around 5 to 15 knots out of the S or SE. Sub-SCA conditions look to continue through much of the mid to late week period. There is a moderate rip current risk for the northern beaches tomorrow, with a low risk south. && .CLIMATE... A few record high minimum temp records were set yesterday with 80F at ORF (tied the daily record), 77F at SBY (tied the daily record), and 79F at ECG (broke the record of 78F from 1999). && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RMM NEAR TERM...ERI/RMM SHORT TERM...RMM LONG TERM...RMM AVIATION...ERI MARINE...AJB CLIMATE...