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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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796 FXUS61 KAKQ 050807 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 407 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure off the coast gradually settles south into the western Atlantic through late this week. Heat and humidity build over the region today through early next week. Daily chances of mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms also return today into the upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 150 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Patchy fog lingers tonight. An upper ridge extends from the Gulf Coast to the Carolinas tonight with a trough across the Upper Midwest. At the surface, high pressure is centered off the Southeast Coast. Showers have moved out of the area with partly cloudy skies continuing overnight. Temps as of 140 AM ranged from the mid 70s inland to the upper 70s SE with dew points in the low-mid 70s. Morning lows in the lower 70s NW to mid 70s SE are expected. Additionally, patchy fog has developed over inland areas that received rain last afternoon/evening. Expect this patchy fog to linger until shortly after sunrise. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 410 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - A Heat Advisory is in effect for Friday. - Heat and humidity continue Saturday. Heat index values around 100 are expected on the eastern shore, with heat indices in the 103-108F range west of the bay. Heat Advisories are likely to be needed for much of the area Saturday. - Additional chances for late day showers and storms will exist Friday and especially Saturday. The upper ridge axis remains from the Gulf Coast to near the Carolina coast Friday into Friday night, with a surface trough lingering in vicinity of the Piedmont. Hot and humid Friday with highs in the mid to upper 90s (upper 80s/lower 90s toward the coast). This combined with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s will result in heat indices of 105-109F. A heat advisory has been issued for most of the area aside from southern portions of the Eastern Shore and Outer Banks Currituck. PW values increase to 2.00-2.25" Friday into Friday night. However, the the upper trough remains well NW of the region, so the only focal point for convective initiation locally will be the lee-side trough. Therefore, coverage should be limited and only loosely organized. PoPs are mainly 30-40% NW to ~20% SE. Very warm and humid Friday night with lows in the mid to upper 70s. The upper ridge breaks down some by Saturday allowing the upper trough and a weakening cold front to approach from the NW. PW values potentially exceed 2.25". Additionally some stronger mid- level flow approaches from the NW (25-35kt). This could result in some better storm organization, which could result in some stronger tstms, but the more likely threat from showers/tstms will be heavy rain. The most favorable region for some locally heavy rain appears to be across southern/SE VA and NE NC at this time. Highs in the lower to mid 90s and dewpoints in the mid 70s will likely result in heat indices of 105-109 E of the I-95 corridor to the coast, so heat advisories are again likely for at least the eastern half of the area. Showers/tstms likely linger into Saturday evening, before diminishing in coverage overnight. Warm and humid with lows in the lower to mid 70s. The weak front may push far enough E Sunday to allow some slightly drier air to filter in from the NW, with slightly lower chances of afternoon/evening showers/tstms, and mainly over the SE. Highs Sunday will mainly be in the upper 80s to lower 90s, with heat indices in the mid 90s to lower 100s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 PM EDT Thursday... Key Message: - Near or slightly above normal temperatures, but very humid through the period. Remaining a bit unsettled with a chance for mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms each day. Not as hot through the period, but high temps will still be near or slightly above normal ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s. It will still be very humid across the area, and with lee troughs or weak frontal boundaries in the vicinity of the region, expect chances for mainly aftn/evening showers/tstms each day. Heat indices will mainly range from the mid 90s to lower 100s Mon through Wed. Warm and muggy nights with lows ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 155 AM EDT Friday... SCT cloud cover continues overnight with mainly VFR CIGs. Will note that some model guidance shows MVFR/IFR CIGs reaching RIC later tonight, but confidence is too low to reflect in the TAFs. Additionally, patchy fog lingers across inland portions of the area but should stay away from the local terminals. Clouds clear in the morning before CU (VFR CIGs around 7000-10000 ft) builds in from SW to NE this afternoon into this evening. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible this afternoon into this evening. However, confidence in coverage is too low to reflect in the TAFs apart from RIC/SBY/PHF. Mostly cloudy skies move in Fri night, thinning late. A weakening and slow moving cold front settles into the region Saturday. This will bring a higher chc (40-60%) of aftn/evening showers/tstms. This front settles near the coast Sunday and washes out, with a remnant boundary lingering over the area Monday/Tuesday. The highest chances (30-40%) shift into SE VA/NE NC Sunday, and then generally 30-40% inland and 15-30% toward the coast Monday and Tuesday. && .MARINE... As of 330 AM EDT Friday... Key messages: - Southerly winds increase later this afternoon into tonight, with Small Craft Advisories now in effect for the coastal waters, lower Chesapeake Bay, and Currituck Sound. - There is a moderate rip risk across area beaches today and Saturday. Early this morning, winds are generally out of the S to SSW and range around 10 to 15 knots. Seas are 3-4 ft with waves 1-2 ft in the Bay. SSW winds shift to the SSE and increase later this afternoon into this evening as a cold front begins to slowly approach from the NW, tightening the gradient over the waters. Winds will first increase across the southern waters this afternoon, with the higher gusts spreading north later through this evening. Latest local wind probs show the best potential for 25 knot gusts (70-80% chance) out 20 nm with lower probabilities closer to the coast. In addition to the wind, seas will also increase to around 5 feet later this afternoon into tonight. SCAs are now in effect for the lower Chesapeake Bay and Currituck Sound this afternoon through this evening and the coastal waters this afternoon into tonight. Similar conditions are expected on Saturday, with winds again ramping up later Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Additional SCAs may be needed for this timeframe. Lighter winds are then expected Sunday into early next week as the cold front dissipates over the local waters. A moderate rip current risk in place for all beaches today with the moderate threat expected to continue through Saturday. && .CLIMATE... No record highs or record high mins were set today/July 4th. Record High Temperatures Fri and Sat (July 5-6) 7/5 7/6 - RIC 102/2012 105/1977 - ORF 98/2012 102/1881 - SBY 102/2012 102/2010 - ECG 100/2012 99/2012 Record High Minimum Temperatures Through Sat (July 4-6) 7/5 7/6 - RIC 79/2012 80/2012 - ORF 80/1999 80/1999 - SBY 81/2012 77/2012 - ECG 77/2018 78/1999 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ021>024. NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ013-030. Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ012-014>017-031-032-102. VA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ048-060-061-099-100-509-510. Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ062-064>069-075>090-092-093-095>098- 511>525. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ632>634. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM NEAR TERM...RHR/RMM SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...RMM MARINE...AJB CLIMATE...