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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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925 FXUS61 KAKQ 011928 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 328 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds in from the Great Lakes tonight and becomes centered off the coast on Tuesday, keeping below normal temperatures and dry conditions in place. Warmer but dry conditions prevail Wednesday, with heat and humidity returning late in the week into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 315 PM EDT Monday... - Key Message: Dry, pleasant with below average temperatures tonight/Tuesday. The latest WX analysis depicts >1025mb sfc high pressure, centered across the Great Lakes, continuing to build SE into the local area. Aloft, the flow is NW in the wake of the departing upper trough. A refreshingly cool dry airmass has spread over the local area with temperatures mainly in the mid 70s to near 80F, dew pts in the 50s, and N winds of 10-20 mph. This is a dramatic change from 24 hrs when some areas were experiencing heat indices ~110F. SCT-BKN cumulus will diminish over the next few hrs leaving a mainly clear sky this evening/overnight. The sfc high is forecast to move ESE overnight, becoming centered across the NE CONUS early Tuesday morning. Low temperatures will average in the mid 50s to around 60F well inland, with low-mid 60s closer to the coast . Light or clam winds overnight inland, with onshore flow of 5-10mph SE VA/NE NC at the coast. The sfc high will become centered along the coast from southern New England to the Delmarva Tuesday aftn, keeping an easterly flow in place in the low levels. Mainly sunny in the morning with SCT aftn cumulus. A little warmer but still comfortable, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s at the coast, and in the mid 80s inland/Piedmont. Dew pts remain in the 50s to lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 AM EDT Monday... The sfc high will sit just off the New England and Mid Atlc coast Tue night and Wed. Clear to partly cloudy and still rather comfortable Tue night, with lows in the upper 50s to mid/upper 60s. The models show good consensus for the return of the upper ridge over the SE CONUS by midweek, with Wed being the transition day. With sfc high pressure still centered just off the coast Wed, conditions will be warmer and just slightly more humid, but still near average for early July, with highs mainly in the mid to upper 80s (lower 80s at the coast). Generally mostly sunny again. Dry and more humid Wed night with lows in the mid 60s to near 70. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 400 AM EDT Monday... - Key Message: Heat and humidity return. After a nice break from the heat, there is strong model consensus for a return to hot and humid weather starting Thu/Independence Day. An upper level ridge will be in place over the SE CONUS, slowly shifting off the east coast into next weekend. Highs look to range from the mid to upper 90s well inland, and in the 90-95F range closer to the coast Thu-Sat. Perhaps trending slightly cooler by Sun, as the next cold front pushes in from the W. With dewpoints climbing back into the 70-75F range, heat indices will likely be at least 100-105F. As for PoPs, expect daily chances for isolated/sctd mainly aftn/evening tstms. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 700 AM EDT Monday... Expect mainly VFR or MVFR conditions at the TAF sites until around midday today, as sctd showers and a few tstms, and a cold front pushes through the area. Any heavier showers or a tstm will be capable of producing brief IFR flight restrictions. Winds shift to the NNE this morning and will be gusty, esply at the coast. Could see a period of MVFR CIGs at PHF/ORF/ECG early this behind the front. Then, mainly VFR conditions expected for this aftn through Wed, as high pressure provides dry weather. && .MARINE... As of 315 PM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories have been extended until early evening (7PM/23z) for the Chesapeake Bay, lower James River, Currituck Sound, and southern Atlantic coastal waters. Cooler and much drier air continues to spill southward across the waters in the wake of this morning`s cold front. 1026mb high pressure is centered over Michigan with a weak inverted trough noted just east of the higher terrain from NC into VA. Winds are out of the N or NNW across the waters this afternoon with continued 15-20 kt flow across the Ches Bay, lower James River, and Currituck Sound. Offshore, winds are not as strong, generally N 10-15 kt. Waves in the bay are generally 2-3 ft while seas offshore range from 3-4 ft N to 4-6 ft S. Have extended SCA headlines in the aforementioned areas until 23z/7pm with continued cool/dry advection and hi-res guidance showing 15-20 kt flow persisting into the early evening. High pressure builds closer to the area tonight with decreasing winds. N or NE flow will continue for SE VA and NE NC waters this evening and SCA headlines may need to be extended further as NE winds almost always result in prolonged higher seas than guidance would suggest. Waves in the bay should subside to 1-3 ft by tonight. The majority of the work week will feature benign boating conditions as high pressure gradually becomes anchored offshore, allowing winds to transition from E-SE-S. By Thursday, the next cold front will attempt to move toward the region from the Ohio Valley with lee troughing over inland VA allowing the pressure gradient along the coast to tighten modestly. The chance for showers and storms will also increase late week into the weekend with associated enhancements to local winds/waves/seas. Moderate rip current risk is forecast for the southern beaches on Tuesday with a low risk for the northern beaches. A low rip risk is forecast for all beaches on Wednesday. && .CLIMATE... June 2024 Preliminary Temperature data: - Site: Avg Temp/Departure - RIC: 78.8 (+3.8) (4th warmest) - ORF: 79.0 (+2.3) (5th warmest) - SBY: 74.6 (+1.9) (not top 10) - ECG: 76.9 (+0.7) (not top 10) Rainfall was below average, but with locally heavy rain on the 30th, no site ranked among the top 10 driest. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ630>634-638-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...LKB LONG TERM...LKB/TMG AVIATION...LKB/TMG MARINE...RHR CLIMATE...AKQ