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Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
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613 FXAK02 KWNH 022319 PMDAK Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 719 PM EDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 12Z Sat Jul 06 2024 - 12Z Wed Jul 10 2024 ...Overview and Guidance Evaluation/Preferences... The guidance continues to show fairly good agreement on the large scale pattern featuring an upper low initially drifting westward north of Alaska and eventually stalling/meandering near the Chukchi Sea into mid-next week. The CMC and ECMWF actually bring the low back East again early next week, which seems to be related to interactions with another potential upper low towards the northern edge of the AK domain (well north of the northern coast). The GFS seemed more in line with the ensemble means in suggesting a much slower progression, and fit better with previous WPC continuity. Meanwhile, a deep upper low will meander south of the Gulf of Alaska this weekend before slowly drifting north towards the southern coast. Latest guidance shows good overall agreement with this system. The WPC blend for today favored the ECMWF, GFS, and CMC for the first few days of the period, significantly increasing the ensemble means days 6 and beyond to help mitigate the noise especially with the northern system. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... A weakening surface front tracking west to east across Mainland Alaska should provide focus for moderate to locally heavy precipitation, with higher totals likely associated with higher terrain. Alaska remains generally wet and unsettled the entire period, which should help bring some relief to the spreading wildfires across the state currently. By this weekend, rain and storms will increase in coverage and intensity from the Alaska Peninsula to Southern Coast as Gulf moisture gets pulled northward ahead of the troughing over the mainland. As the Gulf low gets pulled closer to the coast, precipitation is expected to increase for Southeast Alaska too. Given overall upper troughing over the state much of the period, daytime highs across nearly all of Mainland Alaska and into the Southeast will be well below normal, with the greatest anomalies across western and northern parts of the state. Temperatures may begin to moderate again by mid next week. Santorelli Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html $$