Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
177 FXAK67 PAJK 032252 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 252 PM AKDT Wed Jul 3 2024 .SHORT TERM.../ Through Thursday night / Vertically stacked low drifting southward from S of Kodiak Island towards the northern central Pacific. Generally area of higher pressure over the eastern and northern Gulf of Alaska persisting and holding in place. Weak flow pattern aloft will not lead to any systems coming in and breaking the pattern so the marine deck will continue. A slight reposition of the high pressure ridge will begin some clearing for the southern panhandle as the more pronounced NW winds which is a drying and clearing trend for the southern panhandle. Significant changes not anticipated the nest 24 to 36 hours. .LONG TERM.../Friday through Wednesday/... Overview: High pressure ridge over the AK Gulf remains in place into the weekend keeping overall quiet weather. Increasing probability of rain next week. Low pressure system over the Western Gulf will have tracked to the south while high pressure ridge over the Eastern Gulf expands. souther areas will get the most out of this pattern will dry weather and decreased cloud cover. The surface ridge keeps onshore flow for northern half of the panhandle keeping slight chances of light showers and mostly cloudy skies in place. The NE Gulf Coast will remain under cloudy skies with high pops into the weekend. Ensembles probability of mostly cloudy skies drops into the weekend while operational models have more of a spread as NAM showing wide spread low cloud deck while GFS has skies lifting and more breaks. Moderated temps where clouds remain but the southern areas warming into the low 70s due to solar heating. Warmer 850 mb air mass moves in by next week. Inner channel winds will be generally 10 kt or less initially except for the northern channels where the pressure gradient between the panhandle ridge and Yukon low will have southerly winds closer to 15 to 20 kt. Eastern gulf winds on lee side of the ridge in the 15 to 20 kt range with tip jets near coastal ocean entrances possible into the weekend. Next gulf front/low has been delayed into late Monday/Tuesday before the blocking pattern breaks down. && .AVIATION...Mostly static conditions for this TAF issuance with MVFR and occasional IFR for the northern half of the panhandle and VFR conditions for the south. Lighter winds and plenty of moisture on the northern half will keep CIGs to around 1500 to 2500 ft through today before dropping later this evening. Naturally, the exception is around Taiya Inlet and Skagway, where ceiling will remain elevated as long as the southerly breeze is strong. For the south, there is the possibility of patchy fog developing with light winds and clear skies, particularly around southern PoW Island. && .MARINE...No significant systems in the area. Clouds will help diminish sea breeze impacts. Anticipate wind speeds of up to 20 kt for parts of the outer coastal waters, northern Lynn Canal, and ocean entrances. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Bezenek LONG TERM....PRB AVIATION...NC MARINE...Bezenek Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau