147
FXAK67 PAJK 051336
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
536 AM AKDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.SHORT TERM...The forecast remains largely on track. The ridge of
high pressure over the eastern and northern gulf remains in
place. South of the gulf the vertically stacked low will persist
and drift SW into the north Pacific. Occasional showers will
continue to impact portions of the northern panhandle through
Friday, including the Icy Strait Corridor. The southern panhandle,
has a better sky clearing pattern so more sun and warmer
temperature for the southern third.

Minimal changes were made to the forecast. Temperatures in some
locations were lowered on Friday, given lingering cloud cover, and
wind directions and speeds for a few locations were changed.
Increased chances of PoP over the Icy Strait Corridor given the
anticipated chances of a lingering cloud deck, though most showers
that do occur will likely be fairly light.

.LONG TERM.../Friday through Wednesday/...
Overview: High pressure ridge over the AK Gulf remains in place into
the weekend keeping overall quiet weather. Increasing probability of
rain next week.

Low pressure system over the Western Gulf will have tracked to the
south while high pressure ridge over the Eastern Gulf expands.
souther areas will get the most out of this pattern will dry weather
and decreased cloud cover. The surface ridge keeps onshore flow for
northern half of the panhandle keeping slight chances of light
showers and mostly cloudy skies in place. The NE Gulf Coast will
remain under cloudy skies with high pops into the weekend.
Ensembles probability of mostly cloudy skies drops into the weekend
while operational models have more of a spread as NAM showing wide
spread low cloud deck while GFS has skies lifting and more breaks.
Moderated temps where clouds remain but the southern areas warming
into the low 70s due to solar heating. Warmer 850 mb air mass moves
in by next week. Inner channel winds will be generally 10 kt or less
initially except for the northern channels where the pressure
gradient between the panhandle ridge and Yukon low will have
southerly winds closer to 15 to 20 kt. Eastern gulf winds on lee
side of the ridge in the 15 to 20 kt range with tip jets near
coastal ocean entrances possible into the weekend. Next gulf
front/low has been delayed into late Monday/Tuesday before the
blocking pattern breaks down.

&&

.AVIATION...

Aside from coastal TAF sites, predominate VFR flight conditions
this morning across the panhandle under mostly BKN to OVC skies
and isolated drizzle. Anticipating VFR conditions will continue
through this afternoon with CIGS AoB 6000ft, low to medium
confidence of intermittent drizzle for the northern panhandle TAF
sites by mid morning, Gustavus over to Juneau northward. Best
flying conditions for today expected across far southern panhandle
with clearing skies under an upper level FEW to SCT deck after
18z. Winds should remain around 10kts or less through today,
outside of PAHN and PAGY which will see sustained winds up to
15-20kts and isolated gusts up 25-30kts.

&&

.MARINE...No significant systems in the area. Clouds will help
diminish sea breeze impacts. Anticipate wind speeds of up to 20 to
25 kt for parts of the outer coastal waters, northern Lynn Canal,
and ocean entrances.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GFS/Bezenek
LONG TERM....NC
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...GFS

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