825
FXAK69 PAFG 031150
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
350 AM AKDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A major pattern shift is inbound as several rounds of rain, cooler
temperatures and strong winds move across the Northern Alaska
through the end of the week. There won`t be many places that will
escape the wind or rain and the rain should be fairly heavy,
especially on Thursday. Otherwise, expect temperatures 5-10+
degrees below normal as it will be a cool, wet and windy week for
most locations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
At 500 mb, the models initialized 10 meters too weak with the
Interior ridging on the 00z radiosondes across the state, which
isn`t too much of a concern. Otherwise, we have a 535 decameter
low in the Chukchi Sea northwest of Utqiagvik, a 554 decameter low
in the Gulf of Alaska wrapped by ridging to the east and a 592
decameter high in the North Pacific. All of this combined is
providing predominantly zonal flow across the Interior. The main
driver of the weather is the high in the Pacific which allows for
several vorticity maxima`s and upper level lows to move across the
state providing more more active weather aloft than what we have
seen lately.

Surface Analysis...
Similar to aloft, we have a 1034 mb high in the North Pacific, a
1022 mb low in the Gulf just south of Kodiak and a 1034 mb high
east of there, about 400 nautical miles SSW of Juneau. In the
arctic, there is a 993 mb low about 350 nautical miles northwest
of Utqiagvik. This low is providing wetting rainfall (>0.10") for
much of the West Coast and Western Interior. As of 2AM AKDT, Kiana
has had the most rainfall so far, over 2.25" while most other
locations outside of NW Alaska are sitting around 0.25-0.50" of
rain. And more rainfall is expected through the rest of the week.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Much cooler, windier and wetter weather will be arriving today as
our highs largely don`t make it out of the 60s in most spots.
This is also the first day in quite a while where we don`t have a
chance for a thunderstorm in the Interior. However, a front
dropping in from the northwest will be providing rain and wind
beginning in the Western- Central Interior later this morning and
around Fairbanks this afternoon then proceeding southeast through
the evening. The higher terrain in the Interior will receive the
most rain while the valley locations are looking at around 0.15"
or less, especially the Yukon Flats where only a few hundredths
may be accumulated. Wind will be something that shouldn`t be
downplayed today either. We`ll have widespread wind gusts upwards
of 45 mph from the Fox Hills northward, while Fairbanks may also
gust as high as 35-40 mph. This could result in localized power
outages and some downed trees or limbs. Otherwise, another round
of rain will be arriving on Thursday, July 4th and this could come
with more moderate to heavy rain. Currently, expect an additional
0.25-0.50" across the Interior with some localized spots picking
up 0.75". Rain and breezy conditions continue through the day on
Friday before both the rain and wind comes to a halt Saturday
morning. Additional chances for rain continue this weekend into
next week.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Winds along the Coast will be around 15-25 mph with gusts to 35
mph at times through Saturday. Kotzebue broke a daily record for
precipitation yesterday with 0.93" of rain and while we don`t
expect more records to be broken, several rounds of rain, heavy
at times are expected for the entire area through the end of the
week. The heaviest of which will be along the southern Seward Pen.
and Nulato hills where up to 1.00" is possible. Elsewhere in the
Western Interior, expect around 0.50" from Galena to Ruby north
and 0.25" or less south of there. Then on Thursday the 4th,
expect another round of rain for the entire area as it will be a
soaker. Widespread amounts of 0.25-0.50" or more are likely to
occur. The rain will continue through Friday morning then
gradually exit before another front arrives on Saturday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Utqiagvik broke the daily record for precipitation yesterday with
0.41" of rain and while we don`t anticipate more records to be
broken, there will be several other rounds of rain moving through.
Currently, heavy rain in the Western Brooks Range will be ending
but not before some spots received upwards of 2-4 inches.
Otherwise, a front moves through the NW Arctic Coast by midday and
across the Arctic Coast and from Umiat north this afternoon with
another 0.10-0.25" of rain. The heaviest rain, up to 0.50" is
expected in the Central and Western Brooks Range. Another round of
rain arrives tomorrow and will be a bit more widespread with
similar amounts expected. The rainy trend continues into Friday
and Saturday with the potential for heavy rain (0.50-1.00") for
many spots in the North Slope.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
A rainy and cooler trend continues in the extended with several
rounds of rain anticipated across the state. A strong 595
decameter high in the central NPAC will persist through the
weekend then gradually shift west. Troughing over the western half
of the state will also persist and then a low in the Gulf will get
caught up in the main flow making for broad troughing over much of
the state by the middle of next week. Looking towards the end of
the week, ensembles do diverge a bit, as expected, and we could
be looking towards a more typical pattern with troughing over the
west and southerly flow over the east.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Strong southwest winds with gale force gusts will bring elevated
water levels of 2 to 3 feet above the normal high tideline from
Norton Sound to the Chukchi coast beginning Tue and lasting into
late week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Strong southwest winds are expected across most of the mainland
with sustained winds around 15-25 mph and gusts to 45 mph from the
White Mountains north. From Fairbanks south and east, wind gusts
will be a tad weaker, but gusts 30-35 mph are still possible.
Temperatures will be cooler with most highs in the 50s/60s and min
RHs will also be high, around 40-50+% across the state. With this
will come several rounds of wetting rains for much of the state.
The first of which, already occurred in the Western Brooks Range
and West Coast today.

Tonight into tomorrow, a front from the NW will provide widespread
wetting rain as it moves southeast. The only areas that may not
get wetting rains will be around McGrath and the Yukon Flats, but
there will still be wind and cool temps.

Otherwise, widespread, heavier rain arrives for most locations on
Thursday the 4th, and this continues into Friday. Several
locations in the Interior will be around 0.50-0.75" of rain with
the exception of SE AK and the N. Yukon Flats where around 0.10"
of rain is expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Heavy rain in the Western Brooks Range occurred yesterday with
upwards of 4" of rain in some spots. The Kiana AWOS received
about 2.5" of rain in 24 hours. This may lead to rises in the
Kobuk, Noatak and Wulik Rivers as well as other smaller rivers and
streams. Additional rain is expected each day through this
weekend with another 0.50-1.50" expected through Saturday night.

In the Interior, rain is going to be moving through each day
through the weekend as well with rainfall amounts upwards of
0.50-2.00" across most of the Interior. The highest amounts should
be expected in the higher terrain. This may also lead to rises in
some rivers and streams.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ832>834-838-840>844.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801>805-811-850-852-853.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-807-856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ808-809-855.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810-814.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812-857-858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813-859.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-817-851-854.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
&&

$$

Bianco