142
FXAK69 PAFG 032117
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
117 PM AKDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS... Major weather pattern change is underway as several
rounds of rain, cooler temperatures and strong winds move across
the Northern Alaska through the end of the week. There won`t be
many places that will escape the wind or rain and the rain should
be fairly heavy and mostly widespread, especially on Thursday.
Otherwise, expect temperatures 5-10+ degrees below normal as it
will be a cool, wet and windy week for most locations.

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
There is a 535 decameter low in the Chukchi Sea north of
Utqiagvik, a 554 decameter low in the Gulf of Alaska wrapped by
ridging to the east in the Alaska panhandle and a 588 decameter
high in the North Pacific. All of this is providing predominantly
zonal flow across the Interior. The main driver of the weather is
the high in the Pacific which allows for several vorticity maxima`s
and upper level lows to move across the state providing a very
active weather pattern, more than what has happened recently.

Surface Analysis...
Similar to aloft, we have a 1033 mb high in the North Pacific, a
1022 mb low in the Gulf south of Kodiak and a 1034 mb high east
of there, about 400 nautical miles SSW of Juneau. In the arctic,
there is a 994 mb low about 350 nautical miles north of
Utqiagvik. This low is providing wetting rainfall (>0.10") for
much of the West Coast and Western Interior. More rainfall is
expected through the rest of the week.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Much cooler, windier and wetter weather will continue as our
highs won`t make it out of the 60s in most spots this afternoon.
This is also the first day in a long time where thunderstorms
aren`t expected in the Interior. However, a front dropping in from
the northwest will be providing rain and wind in the Western-
Central Interior and around Fairbanks this afternoon then
proceeding southeast through the evening. The higher terrain in
the Interior will receive the most rain while the valley locations
are looking at around 0.15" or less, especially the Yukon Flats
where only a few hundredths may be accumulated. Widespread wind
gusts upwards of 45 mph from the Fox Hills northward, while
Fairbanks may also gust as high as 35-40 mph this afternoon and
evening. This could result in localized power outages and some
downed trees or limbs. Otherwise, another round of rain will be
arriving on Thursday, July 4th and this could come with more
moderate to heavy rain. Currently, expect an additional 0.25-0.50"
across the Interior with some localized spots picking up close
1.00". Rain and breezy conditions continue through the day on
Friday. The wind decreases Saturday morning. Additional chances
for rain continue this weekend into next week.


West Coast and Western Interior...
Winds along the Coast will be around 15-25 mph with gusts to 35
mph at times through Saturday. Kotzebue broke a daily record for
precipitation yesterday with 0.93" of rain and while we don`t
expect more records to be broken, several rounds of rain, heavy
at times are expected for the entire area through the end of the
week. The heaviest of which will be along the southern Seward
Peninsula and Nulato hills where up to 1.00" is possible.
Elsewhere in the Western Interior, expect around 0.50" from Galena
to Ruby north and 0.25" or less south of there. Then on Thursday
the 4th, expect another round of rain for the entire area as it
will be a soaker. Widespread amounts of 0.25-0.50" or more are
likely to occur. The rain will continue through Friday morning
then gradually exit before another front arrives on Saturday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Utqiagvik broke the daily record for precipitation yesterday with
0.41" of rain and while we don`t anticipate more records to be
broken, there will be several other rounds of rain moving through.
A front moves through the NW Arctic Coast and across the Arctic
Coast and from Umiat north this afternoon with another 0.10-0.25"
of rain. The heaviest rain, up to 0.50" is expected in the Central
and Eastern Brooks Range. Another round of rain arrives tomorrow
and will be a bit more widespread with similar amounts expected.
The rainy trend continues into Friday and Saturday with the
potential for heavy rain (0.50-1.00") for many spots in the North
Slope.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Rainy and cooler conditions will continue in the extended with
several rounds of rain anticipated across the state. A strong 594
decameter high in the central NPAC will persist through the
weekend, weaken and then gradually shift south. Upper level troughing
over the state will persist and then a low in the Gulf will get
caught up in the main flow making for broad troughing over much of
the state by the middle of next week. Looking towards the end of
the week, ensembles do diverge a bit, as expected, and we could be
looking towards a more typical pattern with troughing over the
west and southerly flow over the east.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Strong southwest winds with gale force gusts will bring elevated
water levels of 2 to 3 feet above the normal high tideline from
Norton Sound to the Chukchi coast lasting into late week.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Strong southwest winds are expected across most of the mainland
with sustained winds around 15-25 mph and gusts to 45 mph from the
White Mountains north through this evening. From Fairbanks south
and east, wind gusts will be a bit weaker, but gusts of 30-35 mph
are still possible through this evening. Temperatures will be
cooler with most afternoon highs in the 50s/60s and min RHs will
also be high, around 40-50+% across the state. With this will come
several rounds of wetting rains for much of the state. The first
of which has already occurred in the Western Brooks Range and
West Coast today.

Tonight into tomorrow, a front from the NW will provide widespread
wetting rain as it moves southeast. The only areas that may not
get wetting rains will be around McGrath and the Yukon Flats, but
it will still be windy with cool temps.

Otherwise, widespread, heavier rain arrives for most locations on
Thursday the 4th, and this continues into Friday. Several
locations in the Interior will be around 0.50-0.75" of rain with
the exception of SE AK and the N. Yukon Flats where around 0.10"
of rain is expected.

.HYDROLOGY...
Heavy rain in the Western Brooks Range occurred yesterday with
upwards of 4" of rain in some spots. The Kiana AWOS received
about 2.5" of rain in 24 hours. This will lead to rises in the
Kobuk, Noatak and Wulik Rivers as well as other smaller rivers and
streams. Additional rain is expected each day through this
weekend with another 0.50-1.50" expected through Saturday night.

In the Interior, rain is going to be moving through each day
through the weekend as well with rainfall amounts upwards of
0.50-2.00" across most of the Interior. The highest amounts should
be expected in the higher terrain. This may also lead to rises in
some rivers and streams.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ832>834-838-840>844.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802-803-850.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804-805-852-853.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-816-817-851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807-856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812-858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813-859.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ854.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
&&

$$

GJM