607
FZAK80 PAFC 082111
ICEAFC

Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters
National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program
110 PM AKDT Monday 8 July 2024

FORECAST VALID...Saturday 13 July 2024

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...High.

SYNOPSIS...A low over the Chukchi Peninsula quickly becomes absorbed
into a stronger low dropping from the High Arctic southward in the
Chukchi Sea on Tuesday. The system becomes broad and weak across the
western Mainland on Wednesday. A new system develops in the
southeastern Bering Sea late in the week. Otherwise high pressure
sets up over the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas late week.


The main ice edge extends from near Deering to 68 34N 167 57W to
69 31N 166 24W to 68 46N 172 10W to 66 14N 169 37W. The ice
edge is open water.

From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from
near Deering to 25 nm west of Point Hope to 38 nm northwest of Cape
Lisburne to 113 nm west of Point Hope to 33 nm northwest of Diomede.
The ice edge is open water.

-BEAUFORT SEA-

PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-
PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-
PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-
PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 nm to 80 nm-
PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 nm to 75 nm-

Ice covered.

FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast
confidence is high. Generally easterly flow sets up over the
Beaufort Sea, stronger as the Chukchi Sea low pressure system drops
southward. The winds will accelerate the motion of the Beaufort
Gyre. Expect the pack ice to flow to the west 10 to 15 nm/day while
the effluent of the Mackenzie River Delta continues to expand the
marginal ice zone westward into Alaska waters.


-CHUKCHI SEA-

PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-
PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-
PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-
PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm-
PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm-
PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-
PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-
PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm-
PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm-
PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm-
PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm-

Ice covered.

FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast
confidence is high. Winds across the Chukchi Sea will be seasonally
stronger but variable as a low pressure system drops southward
during the early week, then become light northeasterly late week.
Overall expect the remaining ice in Kotzebue Sound to mostly melt,
with an area of marginal ice left between Cape Krusenstern and Point
Hope. There will also be a large area of marginal ice remaining off
Cape Lisburne that divides two ice free areas of the southern
Chukchi Sea and offshore Point Lay. Seasonal melt will continue, but
at a slower rate as the low pressure system brings a colder air mass
southward.



&&
Lawson