112
FXAK68 PAFC 051335
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
535 AM AKDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Sunday)...

The upper level wave that brought some rainfall to Southcentral
has moved to eastern Prince William Sound early this morning where
it is stalling out. This will bring rainfall to the eastern Sound
through Saturday. The remainder of Southcentral will have a
chance for some showers to pass through over the course of today
with the Susitna Valley and northern Copper River Basin.

For the weekend, conditions across Southcentral will become wetter
as an upper level low currently over eastern Russia moves
southeastward into the Bering Sea overnight. As this upper low
interacts with the stalled front stretching from Shelikof Strait
through eastern Prince William Sound. Basically, a good amount of
lift from this upper low will combine with very moist
southwesterly flow at all levels of the atmosphere and then park
itself over Southcentral for the weekend and possibly into Monday.
Heaviest rainfall amounts are expected to be in the Susitna Valley
and along the north Gulf coast.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

High pressure over the southern Bering has worked its way into
Southwest Alaska this morning. Generally drier conditions promise
a slightly warmer day on Friday than what was experienced
yesterday. High temperatures will warm into the upper 50s this
afternoon with a few areas across the Lower Kuskokwim Valley and
Greater Bristol Bay regions to see low to mid 60s. Saturday will
see rain chances return to both Southwest Alaska and the Aleutian
Chain. A trough pushing through interior Alaska and a developing
front over the Aleutians are expected to run into a westward
moving trough over the southern Gulf of Alaska. The resulting area
of convergence between these features will promote an area of
showers spanning the Aleutian Chain into the Western Alaska Range
during the morning hours on Saturday. An unsettled weather pattern
should then continue into the latter half of the weekend with the
passage of additional shortwaves extending precipitation chances
into Sunday.

BL

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7) Monday through Thursday...

An elongated upper level trough with several low centers rotating
through the pattern on the Alaska Weather Map. The Arctic centers
slide Westward before dipping into the Bering, forming a broad
low across the Central Bering for midweek. This brings cooler
temperatures across the Bering and Western Alaska. The change
should help reduce the fire danger over large portions of the
Mainland. A number of shortwaves pass through the pattern through
midweek, spreading locally moderate precipitation across from the
Central Aleutians into Southwest Alaska and the Alaska Peninsula.
A second low center moving up from the Eastern North Pacific
merges with this low by Thursday. This low helps pump additional
moisture and precipitation across all of Southcentral Alaska and
across Kodiak Island and up to the Alaska Range through Thursday.
An upper level ridge establishes itself over the Eastern Interior
by the end of the forecast. Models across the Alaska Region remain
reasonably clustered, favoring the GFS/ECMWF blend through the
end of the forecast period.

- Kutz


.AVIATION...

PANC...MVFR ceilings and gusty southerly winds to persist through
the day on Friday. An occasional round of light rain cannot be
ruled out this afternoon. More persistent shower activity develops
tonight with continued gusty winds becoming southeasterly out the
Turnagain Arm.


&&
$$