![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Anchorage, AK
Issued by NWS Anchorage, AK
979 FXAK68 PAFC 020037 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 437 PM AKDT Mon Jul 1 2024 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)... A vertically stacked, weak low pressure system is currently over the Alaska Peninsula with a zonal ridge to the north extending from St. Lawrence Island east into Yukon Territory. The area of low pressure and very weak easterly waves will continue to generate some shower activity near the coast, high terrain, and Kodiak through early tomorrow morning as the low drops south into the North Pacific. This will lead to some clearing Tuesday and Wednesday a weak ridge moves over Southcentral. Up-inlet flow and southerly winds through Copper Basin will keep temperatures on the cooler side as to what has been observed recently. A pattern change to cooler and wetter weather will begin Thursday (July 4th) as a shortwave rides over the ridge and into Southcentral in the afternoon to evening. There is some uncertainty as to the timing and extent of precipitation. Given the northwesterly flow and overall dry conditions of the past few weeks, this initial wave may struggle to saturate down to valley locations, resulting in most of the light rain falling on the western faces of the regions mountain ranges, particularly the Talkeetnas and Wrangells. This first wave looks most likely to bring precipitation to the interior portions of the region, with more widespread rain moving in for the holiday weekend. CJ && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)... A ridge of high pressure continues to push the persistent Eastern Aleutian Low east of the Alaska Peninsula this afternoon resulting in an end of the spotty precipitation tomorrow. The aforementioned ridge continues to cause periods of fog and low ceilings to the Central Aleutians and the Pribilofs Islands as seen on satellite this afternoon. Periods of fog and low ceiling conditions will push in to the Eastern Aleutians, Southwest coastline and the Alaska Peninsula this evening and continue through the day tomorrow. It will slowly erode Wednesday as northerly winds shift to a more southwesterly direction throughout the day. A Kamchatka Low moving into the Northern Bering Sea will cause the ridge of high pressure to move southeasterly toward Bristol Bay. This will push the fog toward the AK Peninsula and coastal Southwest Alaska Wednesday. Also on Wednesday, scattered rain showers are expected from the Western and Central Aleutians. Also, rain showers are expected form Bethel to Sleetmute northward late Wednesday. Though an increase in precipitation spread and amount from the past few model runs, it is consistent with the synoptic setup going into mid-week. Cooler temperatures are also expected mid- week with this pattern change. -DJ && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)... The ridge of high pressure over Southcentral Alaska will start to gradually weaken through early next week. This, coupled with an approaching frontal system from the west, will produce a southeasterly wind flow across the area. Cooler temperatures and sporadic widespread precipitation over the region is possible over the long 4th of July weekend. Precipitation should remain in the mid to upper elevations but we cannot rule out intermittent rain over much of Southcentral Alaska and the Copper River Basin through Monday. Several troughs of low pressure extending from a cutoff low in the North Pacific will bring some heavier periods of precipitation across Kenai Peninsula, Kodiak Island and the Northern Alaskan Peninsula through Monday afternoon. Out west, the Bering/Aleutians and Southwest Alaska can also expect showery conditions through the weekend as an upper-level trough and multiple shortwaves rotate across the regions. -DD && .AVIATION... PANC...The coastal surface ridge and associated Turnagain Arm jet will weaken this evening as a surface trough over the Kenai Peninsula this afternoon continues to lift slowly northward. Thus, the gusty southeast winds will diminish by late this evening (06-09Z) and transition to a lighter up Inlet wind with SW flow. A broad ridge will then build over the Gulf behind the trough on Tuesday, leading to a more typical sea breeze type day for PANC, with light WNW winds developing during the morning hours and slowly backing toward the S through the day. Meanwhile, VFR conditions will persist. However, ceilings will slowly lower as the trough approaches, possibly dropping to 5000 feet or lower overnight through early Tuesday, but staying in the VFR category. Then expect ceilings to slowly lift during the day Tuesday as the trough dissipates. && $$