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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
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522 FXUS63 KABR 151911 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 211 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and weak thunderstorms will wrap back into northeast South Dakota and western Minnesota this afternoon and overnight (30 to 50 percent chance). - 10 to 25 percent chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Timing and location are uncertain at this time. - Seasonal temperatures through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 210 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 The upper low that brought all the rain to the area yesterday is sitting in NW MN spinning substantial moisture around on the backside across a good portion of eastern ND. The airmass is becoming conditional unstable, but ample clouds have slow down the potential heating. With that being said, we still expect some showers to develop, mainly across NE SD and Western Central MN. A few lightning strikes are possible as well. This shower activity will continue overnight in a few locations as the low finally moves to the southeast into Wisconsin. After this low moves out the ridge will begin to rebound with the axis starting to set up across eastern MT. A few instability showers may be possible Friday afternoon but chances are looking low. Temps will be near seasonal most locations, but a bit cooler in NE SD. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 210 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Upper level ridging builds in this weekend through early next week. The ridge will push temps into the 80s across the region by Sunday with areas west river perhaps topping out in the 90s. Generally, mostly dry conditions are expected Saturday through Monday. On Tuesday, the ridge flattens a bit and shortwave energy becomes more ample. Coupled with increasing CAPE on moist southerly flow ahead of a weak fropa, thunderstorms look to move back in with the Tuesday front. There`s some model disagreement toward the end of the period for the latter half of next week regarding how strongly the upper ridge builds back in behind the sfc front on Wednesday and Thursday. There`s also disagreement on placement of another potential fropa late Wednesday and a shortwave trough. All to say that precip and thunderstorms can`t be ruled out Wednesday night through Thursday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1208 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG Showers and possible thunderstorms will develop this afternoon mostly near the KATY and KABR locations. LCL MVFR is also possible with these showers. Some stratus and fog is possible overnight as well. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Scarlett LONG TERM...Wise AVIATION...Scarlett