522
FXUS63 KABR 151911
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
211 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and weak thunderstorms will wrap back into northeast
  South Dakota and western Minnesota this afternoon and overnight
  (30 to 50 percent chance).

- 10 to 25 percent chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms
  this weekend into next week. Timing and location are uncertain
  at this time.

- Seasonal temperatures through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

The upper low that brought all the rain to the area yesterday is
sitting in NW MN spinning substantial moisture around on the
backside across a good portion of eastern ND. The airmass is
becoming conditional unstable, but ample clouds have slow down the
potential heating. With that being said, we still expect some
showers to develop, mainly across NE SD and Western Central MN. A
few lightning strikes are possible as well. This shower activity
will continue overnight in a few locations as the low finally moves
to the southeast into Wisconsin.

After this low moves out the ridge will begin to rebound with the
axis starting to set up across eastern MT. A few instability showers
may be possible Friday afternoon but chances are looking low. Temps
will be near seasonal most locations, but a bit cooler in NE SD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Upper level ridging builds in this weekend through early next week.
The ridge will push temps into the 80s across the region by Sunday
with areas west river perhaps topping out in the 90s. Generally,
mostly dry conditions are expected Saturday through Monday. On
Tuesday, the ridge flattens a bit and shortwave energy becomes more
ample. Coupled with increasing CAPE on moist southerly flow ahead of
a weak fropa, thunderstorms look to move back in with the Tuesday
front.

There`s some model disagreement toward the end of the period for the
latter half of next week regarding how strongly the upper ridge
builds back in behind the sfc front on Wednesday and Thursday.
There`s also disagreement on placement of another potential fropa
late Wednesday and a shortwave trough. All to say that precip and
thunderstorms can`t be ruled out Wednesday night through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Showers and possible thunderstorms will develop this afternoon
mostly near the KATY and KABR locations. LCL MVFR is also
possible with these showers. Some stratus and fog is possible
overnight as well.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Scarlett
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Scarlett