052
FXUS63 KABR 170551 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1251 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly dry conditions through the weekend, with temperatures
  right around normal for this time of year.

- 15 to 35 percent chance for thunderstorms Monday night and
  Tuesday.

- Warming temperatures next week, with above normal temperatures
  likely west and near to above normal temps east.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

The aviation discussion has been updated below for the 06Z TAFS.

UPDATE Issued at 625 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Expanded pops west this evening. Also increased sky cover with
to reflect the elevated smoke over the region through Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 307 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

An upper level trough currently extending from the Great Lakes to
the eastern Dakotas will get pushed eastward tonight and Saturday as
ridging build over the Rockies and the western High Plains.

At the surface, still seeing abundant cloud cover and some light
rain shower activity across the eastern CWA on the west side of the
surface low that is in conjunction with the aforementioned upper
low. High pressure will drop in over the region this evening,
bringing an end to the precipitation. Where there has been a bit
more moisture today across the far eastern part of the region, the
potential exists to see some patchy fog late tonight into early
Saturday morning. The high will then remain the dominant feature
over the area Saturday and Saturday night, keeping conditions dry.

Low temperatures tonight will be in the mid 50s to lower 60s. High
temperatures on Saturday will be in the upper 70s to the mid 80s.
Lows Saturday night will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 307 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

The extended portion is showing strong signals for a strong ridge to
set up over the west/central CONUS. The medium range models and
ensembles all pretty much agree with this.

This will translate to near normal temps east and warmer than normal
temps west through the period, with some variations depending on
clouds. It does look like some monsoonal moisture will make it into
the ridge so leaning with a dirty ridge scenario. Models are picking
up on a potent shortwave Monday night and Tuesday morning to pass
across the forecast area over the ridge. This is reflected in the
forecast pretty well, with lesser chances later in the period with
high based storms in the monsoonal flow. All in all, a warmup with
strong storms possible on Monday night and Tuesday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all terminals
through this TAF forecast period. Might have to keep an eye on
KATY`s cig toward daybreak as there might be a brief period of
MVFR cigs associated with some fog that could set up west of the
terminal. At this time, left mention of any precip out of KPIR and
KMBG early this morning, but with some convection still going
across western SD, we`ll have to keep track if it holds together
long enough to affect the terminals.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Wise
SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...Scarlett
AVIATION...Vipond