840
FXUS63 KABR 172015
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
315 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- With a exception of a 25 to 40 percent chance for showers and
  thunderstorms across parts of south central South Dakota late
  tonight and Sunday, the remainder of the weekend will be dry,
  warm and humid.

- 20 to 50 percent chance for thunderstorms Monday night and
  Tuesday.

- Warming temperatures next week, with above normal temperatures
  likely west and near to above normal temps east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Upper level ridging will begin to build over the region tonight.
Will see a shortwave trough disrupt the ridge and track across the
southwestern part of the CWA Sunday afternoon and evening before the
ridging begins to build back in.

At the surface, high pressure will remain dominant over the eastern
part of the CWA tonight into the day Sunday. May see some fog
develop across the far east late tonight into Sunday morning as
skies clear and winds go light. To the west, low pressure will
extend from Montana to the Texas panhandle. Will see the potential
for shower and thunderstorm development (25 to 40 percent chance)
late tonight into Sunday morning ahead of the boundary and in
association with the upper level shortwave. With little movement in
the boundary, cannot rule out some additional development Sunday
night, but the chances are low (15 to 20 percent).

Low temperatures tonight will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. High
temperatures on Sunday will be in the 80s. Lows Sunday night will be
in the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

The medium range models and ensembles are once again pretty
consistent with a CONUS ridge building west and spreading into the
northern plains through the period. Pattern is conducive to
spreading monsoonal moisture into the ridge with chances of
thunderstorms at times. The best chance looks to be late Monday
night into Tuesday as the models have been consistent with ejecting
a strong shortwave into the ridge affecting the northern plains.
Other "best chances" for storms appears to be Thursday as another
wave flattens the ridge increasing the flow pattern across the area.

Above normal temperatures will return with the ridge as well. Highs
will range from the mid to upper 90s west to near 90 in the east for
most of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

An area of IFR/MVFR stratus over the central and southeastern
parts of the area should dissipate by 20Z. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail for the rest of the afternoon, with a few
area possibly seeing some MVFR vsbys due to wildfire smoke. The
far eastern part of the area, including KATY, may see some reduced
vsbys in fog late tonight into Sunday morning. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail tonight through midday Sunday.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...Scarlett
AVIATION...Parkin