912
FXUS63 KABR 062048
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
348 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase to 50-80
  percent on Monday and Monday night as the next upper level
  disturbance and cold front sweep through the region. Some
  storms could be severe and capable of producing large hail and
  damaging winds. There remains a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for
  severe weather across parts of central and northeast South
  Dakota.

- After a relatively quiet Tuesday into Wednesday, the weather
  pattern turns active again mid to late week with additional
  chances for thunderstorms and the potential to see more severe
  weather.

- Seasonal temperatures are expected during the 7 day forecast,
  with the exception of Wednesday and Thursday, when high
  temperatures could bump back up into the low to mid 90s
  throughout and west of the James River valley.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Leftover cirrus from this morning`s showers and storms across south
central and southwest SD continues to work across our eastern zones
this afternoon. A field of CU has developed in daytime heating,
mainly across central SD this afternoon as temperatures have warmed
to around the 80 degree mark. Mostly zonal mid level persists across
the Northern Plains, with one shortwave trough departing the region
to the east and our next weather maker already showing up across
parts of southern Alberta and Saskatchewan. Some perturbation in the
mid level flow still remains present across the Dakotas this
afternoon and evening and it may interact with the current CU field
and pop up a couple of isolated showers and storms late this
afternoon into the evening across north central SD. Not expecting
any organized severe weather with this activity. Most of the
overnight hours should remain relatively quiet as temperatures fall
to a few degrees either side of 60.

That next shortwave trough will track into the Northern Plains on
Monday and Monday night. Lee side troughing continues to persist to
our west and this in combination with an associated sfc low and
trailing cold front will be the impetus for another round of
convection by late morning through Monday evening across our
forecast area. As this system organizes to the west, low level
moisture return will take place across the western Dakotas tonight
into Monday morning and then be drawn farther north and east as the
system approaches. Sfc dew point temperatures will be back into the
low to mid 60s by midday and afternoon. Daytime heating will to an
unstable atmosphere by the afternoon as MLCAPE values climb to
between 2000-3000 J/kg. Robust 500mb flow will yield favorable deep
layer shear values of 30-40 kts. Strong to severe thunderstorms are
expected to develop by late morning and midday and progress eastward
and eventually southeastward along and ahead of the sfc frontal
boundary. SPC has highlighted a good portion of central and
northeast SD with a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather.
The main threats will be large hail and damaging wind gusts.

This system is progged to clear the forecast area by late Monday
evening/early overnight. High pressure building in on Tuesday will
give our area a brief drying trend that will last through most of
Wednesday. However, the next upper wave will make its way into the
region by Thursday with another round of more showers and storms
expected by at that time frame. Another round of severe weather is
anticipated Thursday and Thursday night as another low pressure
system and associated frontal boundaries work through the Dakotas.
SPC has highlighted the Day 5 severe weather outlook with a 15% area
across central SD. The buildup to this next round of active weather
will be an upper ridge building across the region that will lead to
a couple of days of warm to hot temperatures in the low to mid 90s
and dew points back into the 60s to around 70 degrees Wednesday into
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through this TAF
cycle. Increasing chances for precipitation on Monday prompted the
addition of PROB30 groups at KPIR during the morning.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Vipond
AVIATION...Vipond